红阳猕猴桃种植基地自动站温度对其生长季的影响

利用贵州西部发耳、米箩、猴场、蟠龙、鸡场、顺场、杨梅、勺米共8个红阳猕猴桃基地2013—2015年物候期观测资料、猴场基地红阳猕猴桃果实生长期生长速率及其产量资料以及各基地2005—2015年温度资料,运用C值逼近法和决定系数(R~2)最大化法拟合红阳猕猴桃果实生长曲线,采用相关性分析方法,分析了温度对红阳猕猴桃物候期的影响。结果表明,红阳猕猴桃各个物候期出现的时间及其日数与温度变化具有一致性,但各个物候期对温度的响应表现出不一致。红阳猕猴桃开花期对平均温度、平均最高温度的响应最为明显,其相关性达到极显著水平(p0.001)。平均最高温度对果实生长期日数的影响呈负相关性,其相关性达到极显著水平(p0.005)。果实生长量的75.69%受时间影响,24.31%受气候因素影响。     

Evolution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the Late Quaternary

Due to the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP), the cryosphere gradually developed on the higher mountain summits after the Neocene, becoming widespread during the Late Quaternary. During this time, permafrost on the QTP experienced repeated expansion and degradation. Based on the remains and cross-correlation with other proxy records such as those from glacial landforms, ice-core and paleogeography, the evolution and changes of permafrost and environmental changes on the QTP during the past 150,000 years were deduced and are presented in this paper. At least four obvious cycles of the extensive and intensive development, expansion and decay of permafrost occurred during the periods of 150–130, 80–50, 30–14 and after 10.8 ka B.P.. During the Holocene, fluctuating climatic environments affected the permafrost on the QTP, and the peripheral mountains experienced six periods of discernible permafrost changes:(1) Stable development of permafrost in the early Holocene(10.8 to 8.5–7.0 ka B.P.);(2) Intensive permafrost degradation during the Holocene Megathermal Period(HMP, from 8.5–7.0 to 4.0–3.0 ka B.P.);(3) Permafrost expansion during the early Neoglacial period(ca. 4,000–3,000 to 1,000 a B.P.);(4) Relative degradation during the Medieval Warm Period(MWP, from 1,000 to 500 a B.P.);(5) Expansion of permafrost during the Little Ice Age(LIA, from 500 to 100 a B.P.);(6) Observed and predicted degradation of permafrost during the 20 th and 21 st century. Each period differed greatly in paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and permafrost distribution, thickness, areal extent, and ground temperatures, as well as in the development of periglacial phenomena. Statistically, closer dating of the onset permafrost formation, more identification of permafrost remains with richer proxy information about paleoenvironment, and more dating information enable higher resolution for paleo-permafrost reconstruction. Based on the scenarios of persistent climate warming of 2.2～2.6 °C in the next 50 years, and in combination of the monitored trends of climate and permafrost changes, and model predictions suggest an accelerated regional degradation of plateau permafrost. Therefore, during the first half of the 21 st century, profound changes in the stability of alpine ecosystems and hydro(geo)logical environments in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers may occur. The foundation stability of key engineering infrastructures and sustainable economic development in cold regions on the QTP may be affected.     

δ~(18)O, δD and d-excess signatures of ground ice in permafrost in the Beiluhe Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

In this paper, stable isotope(δ~(18)O, δD) investigations were completed in ground ice from a deep borehole in the Beiluhe Basin on northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to unravel the isotopic variations of ground ice and their possible source water. The δ~(18)O and δD of ground ice show distinctive characteristics compared with precipitation and surface water. The near-surface ground ice is highly enriched in heavier isotopes(δ~(18)O and δD), which were gradually depleted from top to bottom along the profile. It is suggestive of different origin and ice formation process. According to isotopic variations, the ice profile was divided into three sections: the near-surface ground ice at 2.5 m is frozen by the active-layer water which suffered evaporation. It is possible that ground ice between 3 and 4.2 m is recharged by the infiltration of snowmelt. From 5 to 6 m, the ground ice show complex origin and formation processes. Isotopic variations from 6 to 11.1 m and 20.55 m indicate different replenishment water. The calculated slope of freezing line(S=6.4) is larger than the experimental value(5.76), and is suggestive of complex origin and formation process of ground ice.     

Experimental Study on Effects of Ground Roughness on Flow Characteristics of Tornado-Like Vortices

The three-dimensional wind velocity and dynamic pressure for stationary tornado-like vortices that developed over ground of different roughness categories were investigated to clarify the effects of ground roughness. Measurements were performed for various roughness categories and two swirl ratios. Variations of the vertical and horizontal distributions of velocity and pressure with roughness are presented, with the results showing that the tangential, radial, and axial velocity components increase inside the vortex core near the ground under rough surface conditions. Meanwhile, clearly decreased tangential components are found outside the core radius at low elevations. The high axial velocity inside the vortex core over rough ground surface indicates that roughness produces an effect similar to a reduced swirl ratio. In addition, the pressure drop accompanying a tornado is more significant at elevations closer to the ground under rough compared with smooth surface conditions. We show that the variations of the flow characteristics with roughness are dependent on the vortex-generating mechanism, indicating the need for appropriate modelling of tornado-like vortices.     

GRAPES全球切线性和伴随模式的调优

伴随技术是四维变分同化（4DVar）系统中计算代价函数梯度的最佳办法,切线性和伴随模式的效果和效率直接影响着4DVar系统的发展。基于GRAPES（Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System）全球切线性和伴随模式1.0版本,利用GRAPES全球模式2.0版本在并行框架和性能等方面的改善,重新优化和设计了GRAPES全球切线性伴随模式2.0版本,提高了GRAPES全球切线性和伴随模式的效果和效率,优化了切线性模式程序结构,使其计算时间最优可控制在非线性模式的1.2倍以内;采用在切线性模式中保存基态的方法,重构了伴随模式的程序结构,使其计算时间最优控制在非线性模式的1.5倍以内;在GRAPES全球切线性物理过程的设计中,将线性物理过程的轨迹基态计算和切线性扰动计算解耦,提高了GRAPES全球切线性和伴随模式的计算效果和效率。     

乌鲁木齐市边界层日变化特征

利用乌鲁木齐市晴天CFL-03型风廓线雷达观测资料,分析了边界层日变化特征。得出结论如下:边界层结构季节变化明显。冬、春季300~600m以下风速较小,小于3m/s,且愈近地面风速愈小;以上风速大、风向恒定,基本为东南大风。夏季和秋季风速比冬季和春季小,流场特征较复杂,水平风速和风向变化较活跃,存在明显的风切变。折射率结构常数春、秋和冬季比夏季分别小1个、3个和1~3个量级;夏季最大,集中在10~(-16)~10~(-13) m~(-2/3)之间。春、夏和秋季晴天湍流动能耗散率量级分别在10~(-6)~10~(-2) m~2·s~(-3)、10~(-4)~10~(-3) m~2·s~(-3)、10~(-6)~10~(-3) m~2·s~(-3)之间;白天比夜间约大1个量级。晴天折射率结构常数和湍流动能耗散率日变化特征与风场日变化特征有较好地对应关系,即湍流发展旺盛的区域与风速较大的区域相一致。风廓线雷达资料反演的湍流动能耗散率对春季和夏季边界层结构日变化演变特征的监测较好。夏季夜间稳定边界层约400~500m,残余层可达到约1800m,对流边界层可发展到约2500m,混合层约2200m,夹卷层约300~400m。     

利用TRMM卫星分裂窗通道对东亚地区夏季降水判识方法的探索

利用2005年9月东亚中低纬地区的63个时次的TRMM卫星资料,分析了降水云和非降水云的红外辐射特征。结果显示:10.8μm通道大部分非降水像元的亮温大于280 K,晴空像元的亮温更高;大部分降水像元的亮温小于280 K,降水越强亮温越低,强降水的亮温在260 K以下。非降水像元的分裂窗通道亮温差(BTD45)总的来说都高于1.5 K;降水像元的BTD45总的来说都小于3.0 K,强降水像元BTD45较低,一般在2.0 K以下。在此基础上,分析了中低纬度夏季6次的不同类型的大尺度短时强降水数据,得到了中低纬度夏季强降水过程中非降水云和降水云对应的红外辐射特征,并以此为依据,提出BTD45为3.0 K和10.8μm通道亮温260 K为降水识别阈值,二者结合,可以得到较好的降水判识结果。     

基于粗糙集和层次分析法的农村居民旅游目的地选择研究

充分考虑主客观因素,运用粗糙集和层次分析法研究农村居民旅游目的地选择影响因子,确定农村居民旅游目的地选择指标体系,并通过评价方法将指标合理化。研究结果表明： ① 判断矩阵计算的各因素权重结果较为接近,比较理想。② 农村居民旅游目的地影响因子中的消费水平、旅游景观、旅游氛围均超过0.1,排在前3位,较以往学者研究结果有所变化。③ 农村居民出游对旅游资源偏好较以往有很大改观。④ 旅游目的地的旅游氛围营造等影响因子已经超过了之前农村居民优先考虑的距离因素。⑤ 对交通条件,住宿水平的影响因子考虑的较少。相对传统的农村居民旅游目的地出游影响因素的研究方法,该方法可以最大限度的避免层次分析法所依赖的专家经验,避免出游因素评价指标设计中出现的重复性。     

珠江口湾区海岸线及沿岸土地利用变化遥感监测与分析

利用遥感、GIS技术对珠江口湾区1960~2012年海岸线以及海岸带土地利用进行监测,通过定量化、空间化方法监测海岸线和土地利用的时空变化,并分析二者的关系,进而探究珠江口湾区海岸线变迁的原因。研究结果表明,1960~2012年,珠江口湾区海岸线长度由1 134.95 km增至1 508.02 km,在此期间,湾区新增的陆地面积为878.11 km²;从空间上看,广州、珠海及深圳市在珠江口五市中不仅海岸线增长幅度较显著,新增陆地面积也较大; 1960~2012年,珠江口湾区建设用地扩张幅度非常大,增长了33.05倍,城镇建设和农业发展等人类活动是52 a来珠江口湾区海岸线发生显著变化的重要原因。