Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.     

Spinifex-like textured metaperidotites from the Higo Metamorphic Rocks,Japan, a possible high-pressure dehydration product of antigorite serpentinite

Spinifex-like textured metaperidotites from the Higo Metamorphic Rocks (HMR), west-central Kyushu, Japan, may be formed by high-pressure dehydration of antigorite, and may indicate deep subduction of serpentinite reaching a pressure–temperature condition of 1.6 GPa and 740–750 °C. Three rock types have been identified based on mineral assemblage and rock texture: Type I (L) consisting of medium-grained (1–5 cm long) olivine + enstatite + chromite ±tremolite with secondary talc and anthophyllite that occurs in low-grade metamorphic rocks of the biotite zone, Type I (H) of coarse-grained (up to 10 cm long) olivine + enstatite (with clinoenstatite lamella) + chromite ±tremolite with secondary talc that occurs in high-grade metamorphic rocks of the garnet-cordierite zone, and Type II composed of Al-spinel + chlorite + olivine + apatite + ilmenite with minor sodic gedrite in the garnet-cordierite zone together with Type I (H). Olivines in all rock types are mostly serpentinized during exhumation. The chromite-olivine thermometer gives 560–690 °C for Type I (L) rocks, and the spinel-olivine thermometer gives 610–740 °C for Type II rocks. The peak metamorphic pressure will be higher than 1.6 GPa based on the location of the experimentally determined invariant point (P = 1.6 GPa and T = 670 °C) of antigorite + forsterite + enstatite + talc + H₂O. This estimate is consistent with the occurrence of chlorite in Type II rocks, which is stable up to 890 °C at 2.0 GPa. The spinifex-like textured metaperidotites occur as small bodies in the low P/T type gneisses, implying tectonic juxtaposition of them probably during exhumation of the HMR. Recent findings of medium pressure (0.9–1.2 GPa) granulites and gneisses from the HMR may indicate that the HMR has a deep root into the wedge mantle from which the spinifex-like textured metaperidotites have derived.     

Long-term observations of the group structure of surface waves in ice

Ocean Dynamics - Several years of surface wave observations in the Chukchi Sea reveal wave groups are a common feature in open water and ice-covered conditions. The strength of the groupiness, here...     

Large Dust Grains Around Cometary Nuclei

Large amounts of particles ejected from the nucleus surface are present in the vicinity of the cometary nuclei when comets are near the Sun (at heliocentric distances ≤2 AU). The largest dust grains ejected may constitute a hazard for spatial vehicles. We tried to obtain the bounded orbits of those particles and to investigate their stability along several orbital periods. The model includes the solar and the cometary gravitational forces and the solar radiation pressure force. The nucleus is assumed to be spherical. The dust grains are also assumed to be spherical, and radially ejected. We include the effects of centrifugal forces owing to the comet rotation. An expression for the most heavy particles that can be lifted is proposed. Using the usual values adopted for the case of Halley’s comet, the largest grains that can be lifted have a diameter about 5 cm, and the term due to the rotation is negligible. However, that term increases the obtained value for the maximum diameter of the lifted grain in a significant amount when the rotation period is of the order of a few hours.     

Evaporation from seasonally frozen bare and vegetated ground at various groundwater table depths in the Ordos Basin,Northwest China

In cold climates, the process of freezing–thawing significantly affects the ground surface heat balance and water balance. To better understand the mechanism of evaporation from seasonally frozen soils, we performed field experiments at different water table depths on vegetated and bare ground in a semiarid region in China. Soil moisture and temperature, air temperature, precipitation, and water table depths were measured over a 5‐month period (November 1, 2016, to March 14, 2017). The evaporation, which was calculated by a mass balance method, was high in the periods of thawing and low in the periods of freezing. Increased water table depth in the freezing period led to high soil moisture in the upper soil layer, whereas lower initial groundwater levels during freezing–thawing decreased the cumulative evaporation. The extent of evaporation from the bare ground was the same in summer as in winter. These results indicate that a noteworthy amount of evaporation from the bare ground is present during freezing–thawing. Finally, the roots of Salix psammophila could increase the soil temperature. This study presents an insight into the joint effects of soil moisture, temperature, ground vegetation, and water table depths on the evaporation from seasonally frozen soils. Furthermore, it also has important implications for water management in seasonally frozen areas.     

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km²) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usages – blue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds. This is additional to the effect of climate change on water resources.     

Catchment properties,function, and conceptual model representation: is there a correspondence?

This study investigates the possible correspondence between catchment structure, as represented by perceptual hydrological models developed from fieldwork investigations, and mathematical model structures, selected on the basis of reproducing observed catchment hydrographs. Three Luxembourgish headwater catchments are considered, where previous fieldwork suggested distinct flow‐generating mechanisms and hydrological dynamics. A set of lumped conceptual model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following parameter calibration, the model performance is examined in terms of predictive accuracy, quantification of uncertainty, and the ability to reproduce the flow–duration curve signature. Our key research question is whether differences in the performance of the conceptual model structures can be interpreted based on the dominant catchment processes suggested from fieldwork investigations. For example, we propose that the permeable bedrock and the presence of multiple aquifers in the Huewelerbach catchment may explain the superior performance of model structures with storage elements connected in parallel. Conversely, model structures with serial connections perform better in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments, which are characterized by impermeable bedrock and dominated by lateral flow. The presence of threshold dynamics in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments may favour nonlinear models, while the smoother dynamics of the larger Huewelerbach catchment were suitably reproduced by linear models. It is also shown how hydrologically distinct processes can be effectively described by the same mathematical model components. Major research questions are reviewed, including the correspondence between hydrological processes at different levels of scale and how best to synthesize the experimentalist's and modeller's perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, ...