Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Early Jurassic palaeoenvironments in the Surat Basin,Australia – marine incursion into eastern Gondwana

Interpretations of palaeodepositional environments are important for reconstructing Earth history. Only a few maps showing the Jurassic depositional environments in eastern Australia currently exist. Consequently, a detailed understanding of the setting of Australia in Gondwana is lacking. Core, wireline logs, two-dimensional and three-dimensional seismic from the Precipice Sandstone and Evergreen Formation in the Surat Basin have been used to construct maps showing the evolution of depositional environments through the Early Jurassic. The results indicate the succession consists of three third-order sequences (Sequence 1 to Sequence 3) that were controlled by eustatic sea level. The lowstand systems tract in Sequence 1 comprises braidplain deposits, confined to a fairway that parallels the basin centre. The strata were initially deposited in two sub-basins, with rivers flowing in different orientations in each sub-basin. The transgressive systems tract of Sequence 1 to lowstand systems tract of Sequence 3 is dominated by fluvio–deltaic systems infilling a single merged basin centre. Finally, the transgressive and highstand systems tracts of Sequence 3 show nearshore environments depositing sediment into a shallow marine basin. In the youngest part of this interval, ironstone shoals are the most conspicuous facies, the thickness and number of which increase towards the north and east. This study interprets a corridor to the open ocean through the Clarence–Moreton Basin, or the Carpentaria and Papuan basins, evidence of which has been eroded. These results challenge a commonly held view that eastern Australia was not influenced by eustasy, and propose a more dynamic palaeogeographic setting comprising a mixture of fluvial, deltaic and shallow marine sedimentary environments. This work can be used to unravel the stratigraphic relationships between Mesozoic eastern Australian basins, or in other basins globally as an analogue for understanding the complex interplay of paralic depositional systems in data poor areas.     

Book reviews

APPLIED GEOGRAPHY: Issues, Questions and Concerns (Geo Journal Library Vol. 15) edited by M. S. Kenzer. 16 × 24 cm, x and 210 pages. Kluwer: Dordrecht 1989 (ISBN 0 7923 04381).

WINE AND THE VINE: An Historical Geography of Viticulture and the Wine Trade by T. Unwin. 16 × 24 cm, xvi and 409 pages. Routledge: London 1991 (ISBN 0 415 13120 6) $A155.00 (hard); distributed by The Law Book Co.

WATERFRONT SYDNEY 1860–1920 by G. Aplin and J. Storey. 26 × 18 cm. 144 pages. Allen & Unwin: Sydney 1991 (first published 1984) (ISBN 1 86373 098 2) $A24.95 (soft).

Australian Geographer 23 (2), November 1992

INDUSTRIAL LOCATION: Principles and Policies (Second Edition) by K. Chapman and D. F. Walker. 15 × 23 cm, xiii and 322 pages. Basil Black‐well: Oxford 1991 (ISBN 0 631 16789 7) $A39.95 (soft).

INTERNATIONALISATION OF AUSTRALIA'S SERVICE INDUSTRIES by J. V. Langdale. 17 × 25 cm, iv and 373 pages. Australian Government Publishing Service, for Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce: Canberra 1991 (ISBN 0 644 13841 6).

TOURISM AND GOLD IN KAKADU: The Impact of Current and Potential Natural Resource Use on the Northern Territory Economy by B. Knapman, O. Stanley and J. Lea. 21 × 29 cm, vi and 49 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1179 4).

ABORIGINAL AUSTRALIA AND THE ‘NEW FEDERALISM’ INITIATIVE (Discussion Paper No. 2) by G. J. Crough. 14 × 21 cm, 42 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1325 8).

AUSTRALIAN NATIONHOOD AND OUTBACK INDIGENOUS PEOPLES (Discussion Paper No. 1) by P. Jull. 14 × 21 cm, 38 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1309 6).

MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC (Pacific Research Monograph No. 24) edited by J. Connell. 17 × 25 cm, xii and 199 pages. National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University: Canberra 1990 (ISBN 0 07315 0668 5) $A25.00 (soft).

POPIULESIN BLONG HONIARA: Olketa Popiulesin Map Blong 1986 Sensis. HONIARA: 1986 Census Atlas (Statistics Office Occasional Paper No. 4 / Board of Development Studies Monograph No. 1) by A.C. Walsh. 21 × 29 cm, vii and 95 pages. Department of Statistics: Honiara and Board of Development Studies, Massey University: Palmerston North 1990 (ISSN 0114 8834) $NZ34.00 in New Zealand, $NZ38.00 elsewhere (soft).

DOI MOI: Vietnam's Renovation Policy and Performance (Political and Social Change Monograph No. 14) edited by D. K. Forbes, T. H. Hull, D. G. Marr and B. Brogan. 15 × 22 cm, xiv and 263 pages. Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University: Canberra 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1303 7).     

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, ...     

Three‐dimensional gravity‐current flow within a subaqueous bend: Spatial evolution and force balance variations

The nature of three‐dimensional flow in submarine channel bends is poorly understood, largely due to the absence of detailed data from natural channels. Herein, data from density‐driven flows in a large reservoir on the Huanghe (Yellow) River are presented showing the spatio‐temporal variation of flow around a subaqueous bend. The data demonstrate for the first time that reversed helical flow, relative to that found in river channel bends, can occur from the centrifugal forcing of flow, even when the Coriolis force acts in the opposite direction. The data also suggest that reversed helical flow fields in submarine channels may be more frequent than currently estimated, notably for bends where Coriolis and centrifugal forces combine in the same direction. In addition, this study provides the first field evidence suggesting that sinuous submarine channels can exhibit an asymmetry in helical flow orientation between left and right‐turning bends, which will have major implications for the morphodynamics of submarine channels, their resultant patterns of sedimentation and, ultimately, the distribution of depositional units across submarine fan systems.     

Groundwater-level response to land-use change and the implications for salinity management in the West Moorabool River catchment, Victoria, Australia

The connection between the removal of native vegetation, rising water tables and increasing stream salinity has been established for many catchments across Australia. However, the West Moorabool River in south west Victoria is an example of a catchment where there has been little discernable effect on groundwater levels following land clearing. Over the past 150 years, a significant portion of the catchment has been cleared of dense forest for agricultural development. Historic standing water-level records from 1870–1871 and 1881 are compared with contemporary measurements (1970s to 2007) recorded in the government bore databases. The data show that the earliest recorded groundwater levels are well within the seasonal range of values observed today. By integrating geology and hydrogeology with historical observations of groundwater levels, climate data and land use, the contemporary field observations of stream salinity are linked to the changed water use and shift in rainfall. In contrast to the normally accepted axiom, reafforestation as a management strategy to mitigate the rising salinity in the West Moorabool River catchment would seem inappropriate.     

The last deglaciation in the Picos de Europa National Park (Cantabrian Mountains,northern Spain)

A sedimentological and geochemical study of the Lago Enol sequence (Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain), together with detailed geomorphological mapping, provides a first record of glacier evolution and climate change over the last 40 ka in the Picos de Europa National Park. The Enol glacier retreated from its maximum extent prior to 40 ka BP as demonstrated by the onset of proglacial lacustrine sedimentation in two glaciated depressions: the Comella hollow to the north (before 40 ka BP) and the Lago Enol (before 38 ka BP). These results support previous evidence that the maximum extent of southern European glaciers occurred earlier than in northern Europe. Alternation of homogeneous and laminated proglacial sediments during the glacier retreat illustrate a dynamic glacial evolution during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (40–26 ka BP). A slight warming is detected at 26 ka ago with the change from proglacial sediments (in a lake located in contact to the glacier) to glaciolacustrine sedimentation (in a non‐contact or distal lake). Finally, the onset of organic‐rich sediments took place at 18 ka ago. This last transition occurred in two phases, similarly to the North Atlantic Last Termination, suggesting a link between North Atlantic Deep Water formation oscillations and palaeohydrological variability in the Cantabrian Mountains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A cautionary note on humanitarian intervention

In the Post-Cold War environment, the role of the military has been extended to include intra-state peace enforcement on humanitarian grounds. This raises issues of legality. In this paper, four arguments are advanced that a right of states to intervene in humanitarian emergencies now exists. Problems contingent upon such intervention are then examined.