A New Lithostratigraphic Framework for the Cretaceous Colorado Group in the Cold Lake Heavy Oil Area,East-Central Alberta,Canada

The Albian to Santonian Colorado Group in the heavy oil area of Cold Lake, east-central Alberta represents a relatively condensed section of shale-dominated sedimentation within the Western Interior Sea. These shales form the cap rock to the underlying Clearwater and Grand Rapids formations that are exploited for bitumen extraction. Two cores covering the entire Colorado Group provide a unique opportunity for establishment of a stratigraphic reference in an area that has received attention only for its heavy oil-bearing Mannville Group. Based on sedimentology, geochemistry, micropaleontology, nannofossils, and wireline log data, the Colorado Group was subdivided into the Joli Fou, Viking, Westgate, Fish Scales, Belle Fourche, Second White Specks, and Niobrara formations. The Niobrara Formation was subdivided further into the Verger Member, informal Cold Lake member, and First White Specks Member. Because of this region’s small accommodation space and distance to sources of coarse clastic sediment, disconformities are indicated lithologically by bioclastic layers and missing biozones. Foraminiferal subzones revealed two erosional boundaries associated with the Viking Formation. Faunal and floral evidence coupled with wireline log correlations suggest that the Middle to Upper Turonian Carlile Formation, as described from southeastern Alberta, is missing. That extends the Middle Turonian to Coniacian unconformity, as recognized in central Saskatchewan, westwards into Alberta.     

Application of the FAO quantitative and SINDI methods to assess the quality of different soils in Castilla-La Mancha (Spain)

In the region of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain), over half of the soils are under cropping. This vast agricultural activity, combined with other anthropological uses, has led to a deterioration of the soil quality and virtual degradation. Therefore, it was deemed to assess the quality of these soils, which was achieved by applying two different methods. Three soils, representative of typical conditions in this community, were sampled and diverse properties were analysed in order to apply two different approaches. The first soil evaluation was carried out by a traditional method developed by FAO using a productivity index, whereas the second method consisted of the application of a new method called SINDI, developed in New Zealand. Both approaches make an evaluation based on a number of indicators that differs in each case. These differences explain why each method ranked the soils studied in different order reaching diverse conclusions on their quality.     

Subjectively Weighted Development Scenarios for Urban Allocation: A Case Study of South East Queensland

This article presents a GIS‐based methodology to integrate a measure of geographic attractiveness of localities in the process of allocating potential dwellings in the context of a large urban region. The methodology was developed for a study area in Brisbane‐South East Queensland (SEQ), known as the Sunbelt Region, a rapidly growing region and a popular tourist destination in Australia. In this article, we have used a multivariate technique to develop a set of parameterised linear equations to define underlying dimensions that drive residential location decision choices. Aesthetic and accessibility factors were identified in the factor analysis from data collected via a survey of Quality of Life. Spatial measures were based on a combination of network distance and kernel density estimation to calculate ‘aesthetic’ and ‘accessibility’ scenarios, which were then overlaid and multiplied by their subjective weights to create an ‘overall attractiveness scenario’. These development scenarios were integrated as a set of criteria to control the allocation of potential dwelling capacity over the next 25 years at a grid cell level.     

Dung, diet, and the paleoenvironment of the extinct shrub-ox (Euceratherium collinum) on the Colorado Plateau, USA

Fossil remains of Euceratherium collinum (extinct shrub-ox) have been found throughout North America, including the Grand Canyon. Recent finds from the Escalante River Basin in southern Utah further extend the animal's range into the heart of the Colorado Plateau. E. collinum teeth and a metapodial condyle (foot bone) have been recovered in association with large distinctively shaped dung pellets, a morphology similar to a ‘Hershey's Kiss’ (HK), from a late Pleistocene dung layer in Bechan Cave. HK dung pellets have also been recovered from other alcoves in the Escalante River Basin including Willow and Fortymile canyons. Detailed analyses of the HK pellets confirmed them to be E. collinum and indicate a browser-type diet dominated (> 95%) by trees and shrubs: Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush), Acacia sp. (acacia), Quercus (oak), and Chrysothamnus (rabbit brush). The retrieval of spring and fall pollen suggests E. collinum was a year-round resident in the Escalante River Basin.     

Imprecise probabilities of climate change: aggregation of fuzzy scenarios and model uncertainties

Whilst the majority of the climate research community is now set upon the objective of generating probabilistic predictions of climate change, disconcerting reservations persist. Attempts to construct probability distributions over socio-economic scenarios are doggedly resisted. Variation between published probability distributions of climate sensitivity attests to incomplete knowledge of the prior distributions of critical parameters and structural uncertainties in climate models. In this paper we address these concerns by adopting an imprecise probability approach. We think of socio-economic scenarios as fuzzy linguistic constructs. Any precise emissions trajectory (which is required for climate modelling) can be thought of as having a degree of membership in a fuzzy scenario. Next, it is demonstrated how fuzzy scenarios can be propagated through a low-dimensional climate model, MAGICC. Fuzzy scenario uncertainties and imprecise probabilistic representation of climate model uncertainties are combined using random set theory to generate lower and upper cumulative probability distributions for Global Mean Temperature anomaly. Finally we illustrate how non-additive measures provide a flexible framework for aggregation of scenarios, which can represent some of the semantics of socio-economic scenarios that defy conventional probabilistic representation.     

Desert Potholes: Ephemeral Aquatic Microsystems

An enigma of the Colorado Plateau high desert is the “pothole”, which ranges from shallow ephemeral puddles to deeply carved pools. The existence of prokaryotic to eukaryotic organisms within these pools is largely controlled by the presence of collected rainwater. Multivariate statistical analysis of physical and chemical limnologic data variables measured from potholes indicates spatial and temporal variations, particularly in water depth, manganese, iron, nitrate and sulfate concentrations and salinity. Variation in water depth and salinity are likely related to the amount of time since the last precipitation, whereas the other variables may be related to redox potential. The spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry affect the distribution of organisms, which must adapt to daily and seasonal extremes of fluctuating temperature (0–60 °C), pH changes of as much as 5 units over 12 days, and desiccation. For example, many species become dormant when potholes dry, in order to endure intense heat, UV radiation, desiccation and freezing, only to flourish again upon rehydration. But the pothole organisms also have a profound impact on the potholes. Through photosynthesis and respiration, pothole organisms affect redox potential, and indirectly alter the water chemistry. Laboratory examination of dried biofilm from the potholes revealed that within 2 weeks of hydration, the surface of the desiccated, black biofilm became green from cyanobacterial growth, which supported significant growth in heterotrophic bacterial populations. This complex biofilm is persumably responsible for dissolving the cement between the sandstone grains, allowing the potholes to enlarge, and for sealing the potholes, enabling them to retain water longer than the surrounding sandstone. Despite the remarkable ability of life in potholes to persist, desert potholes may be extremely sensitive to anthropogenic effects. The unique limnology and ecology of Utah potholes holds great scientific value for understanding water–rock–biological interactions with possible applications to life on other planetary bodies.     

Evidence for non-radial fields in the Sun's photosphere and a possible explanation of the polar magnetic signal

The appearance of the Hα fibrils suggests the presence of magnetic fields inclined at noticeably non-radial angles in the Sun's chromosphere. We present evidence to suggest that these angles continue into the photosphere. The presence even of small non-radial inclinations can significantly affect the appearance of regions observed by a longitudinal magnetograph. In particular, a simple bipolar loop can appear unbalanced when viewed near the limb. We suggest that the observed polar signal may be nothing more than a geometric effect arising when a balanced but systematically aligned array of bipolar pairs is viewed at an angle.     

The Near Infrared Spectrum of Miranda: Evidence of Crystalline Water Ice

A spectrum from 1.2 to 2.5 μm of Uranus' small satellite Miranda obtained in June 1999 reveals strong water-ice signatures. It confirms the existence of a 2.0-μm water feature previously detected on Miranda and shows a strong second broad 1.5-μm water-ice absorption feature. The spectra also reveal a weak absorption band at 1.65 μm that is indicative of crystalline water ice. Reflectance models which combine the new spectra with new photometry indicate that the spectra are characteristic of a mostly water-ice surface, with a large fraction of carbonaceous or silicate contaminates, and the possible presence of ammonia hydrate, as implied by an apparent weak feature near 2.2 μm. The possible presence of other volatiles is also investigated.     

Influence Diagrams for Representing Uncertainty in Climate-Related Propositions

In order to respond to policy questions about the potential impacts of climate change it is usually necessary to assemble large quantities of evidence from a variety of sources. Influence diagrams provide a formal mechanism for structuring this evidence and representing its relationship with the climate-related question of interest. When populated with probabilistic measures of belief an influence diagram provides a graphical representation of uncertainty, which can help to synthesize complex and contentious arguments into a relatively simple, yet evidence-based, graphical output.Following unusually damaging floods in October–November 2000 the UK government commissioned research with a view to establishing the extent to which the floods were a manifestation of hydrological climate change. By way of example application, influence diagrams have been used to represent the evidential reasoning and uncertainties in responding to this question. Three alternative approaches to the mathematization of uncertainty in influence diagrams are demonstrated and compared. In situations of information scarcity and imprecise expert judgements, methods based on interval probabilities have proved to be attractive. Interval probabilities can, it is argued, represent ambiguity and ignorance in a more satisfactory manner than the conventional Bayesian alternative. The analysis provides a quantified commentary on the uncertainties in the conclusion that the events of October–November 2000 were extreme, but cannot in themselves be attributed to climate change.