山东省近40a来的气温和降水变化趋势分析

本文利用非参数检验法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了山东省15个站点近40 a(1958—1998)来气温和降水的长期变化趋势。结果表明:全省气温除西南的莘县、兖州有下降趋势外,大部分地区呈现上升趋势,全省平均上升0.06℃/10a。分季情况为:春季和冬季气温有上升趋势,其中冬季气温上升对全省气温上升的贡献率最大。夏季气温基本保持不变,秋季气温有下降趋势。全省除济南降水量呈略微上升趋势外,其余地区的降水倾向率均为负值,全省的降水倾向率为-3.05 mm/a。表明山东省自1960年以来,年均降水量呈现减少趋势。减少幅度东南部大于西北部,以东南沿海平均减少幅度最大。     

Study on cut-off low-pressure systems with floods over Northeast Asia

Summary The cut-off lows (COLs) during the period from June to August 1998 leading to the record flood in Northeast Asia, especially in Northeast China, has been investigated in this paper. The results are as follows: the blocking highs benefited significantly the formation and maintenance of COLs over Northeast China; an obvious frontogenesis zone existed in Northeast China and it implies that baroclinity played an important role in the initiation of COLs, especially in middle and upper troposphere; the maxima of the potential vorticity anomaly were located in the upper troposphere, then extended downwards to the middle and the lower troposphere. The pronounced interaction between systems in upper-middle and low troposphere can be revealed; the moisture supply was from South China, and even from East China Sea and South China Sea. The strong southerly current transported very rich moisture to Northeast China. The maximum of the convergence of moisture flux was below 850 hPa. Obvious interaction between the middle and lower latitude systems was found in the study. Also, the summer monsoon showed significant impacts on the sustained heavy rainfalls related with the COLs over Northeast China; the upward motion could be caused by the lifting of the large scale dynamic forcing and there was no obvious releasing of latent heating in the upper-middle troposphere. The cold dome in the COLs was quite different both from the warm core in tropical cyclone and from the weaker warm core in Meiyu (Baiu) front low. The calculation of vorticity budget shows that both the horizontal advection term and horizontal divergence term contributed importantly to the maintenance and the strengthening of positive relative vorticity. Finally, the complex dynamical characteristics regarding the COLs are discussed and further investigation is proposed.     

Initialization and simulation of a landfalling typhoon using a variational bogus mapped data assimilation (BMDA)

Summary Recently, a new data assimilation method called “3-dimensional variational data assimilation of mapped observation (3DVM)” has been developed by the authors. We have shown that the new method is very efficient and inexpensive compared with its counterpart 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar). The new method has been implemented into the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5V1 (MM5_3DVM). In this study, we apply the new method to the bogus data assimilation (BDA) available in the original MM5 with the 4DVar. By the new approach, a specified sea-level pressure (SLP) field (bogus data) is incorporated into MM5 through the 3DVM (for convenient, we call it variational bogus mapped data assimilation – BMDA) instead of the original 4DVar data assimilation. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the new 3DVM method, initialization and simulation of a landfalling typhoon – typhoon Dan (1999) over the western North Pacific with the new method are compared with that with its counterpart 4DVar in MM5. Results show that the initial structure and the simulated intensity and track are improved more significantly using 3DVM than 4DVar. Sensitivity experiments also show that the simulated typhoon track and intensity are more sensitive to the size of the assimilation window in the 4DVar than that in the 3DVM. Meanwhile, 3DVM takes much less computing cost than its counterpart 4DVar for a given time window.     

Roles of Mesoscale Terrain and Latent Heat Release in Typhoon Precipitation： A Numerical Case Study

The mesoscale orographic effects on typhoon Aere＇s precipitation are simulated using an Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model （AREM） version 3.0. In particular, the effects of the latent heat release are studied by two comparable experiments： with and without condensational heating. The results show that the typhoon rainfall is tripled by the southeastern China mesoscale terrain, and the condensational heating is responsible for at least half of the increase. One role of the latent heat release is to warm the atmosphere, leading to a depression of the surface pressure, which then causes a larger pressure difference in the zonal direction. This pressure gradient guides the water vapour to flow into the foothills, which in turn amplifies the water vapour flux divergence amplified, causing the typhoon rainfall to increase eventually. The other role of the latent heat release is to make the convection more organized, resulting in a relatively smaller rain area and stronger precipitation.     

"龙王"(LONGWANG)台风过程湿位涡的诊断分析

本文应用MM5V3中尺度数值模式对0519号台风“龙王”过程进行了数值模拟,利用模拟结果计算了台风过程湿位涡(Moist Potential Vorticity,MPV)的演变,从湿位涡的角度研究了台风过程大暴雨的产生机制。结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是“龙王”台风在福建沿海产生大暴雨的重要机制之一,湿位涡能够对暴雨落区的预报有较强的指示性作用,暴雨产生在θse线陡立的对流层中低层MPV1等值线密集带中零线附近,对流层中高层的MPV2负值区可以作为暖湿气流或涡旋活动的示踪;另外,对流层中高层中高纬度冷空气扩散南下与台风的东南暖湿空气在福建沿海交汇,加剧了气旋性涡度发展,对暴雨的发生发展也有巨大的作用。     

京津冀地热资源综合利用研究

京津冀地区资源环境问题,需发挥地质工作基础先行作用—积极拓展清洁能源领域,在大气治理行动中发挥作用。京津冀地区地热资源丰富,地热资源主要为沉积盆地型地热资源,占总量的99%。沉积盆地型地热资源主要分布在新近系明化镇组、馆陶组,古近系东营组,寒武-奥陶系,元古界。对京津冀地下热水进行科学合理的开发,将资源优势转化为经济优势和生态优势,是我省乃至京津冀发展低碳经济、绿色经济的迫切需要,是实现节能减排目标的有效途径。     

中国萤石产业资源现状及发展建议

萤石是中国重要的战略性矿产资源。本文通过分析萤石资源现状、供需格局、产业发展以及近年来萤石行业发展面临的新形势和特点,为保障中国萤石产业可持续发展提出加大勘查投入、提高资源保障程度、合理有效开发、促进产业升级等建议。     

Florogeography of mire plants in southern part of qinghai-xizang plateau and its adjacent areas

ＦＬＯＲＯＧＥＯＧＲＡＰＨＹＯＦＭＩＲＥＰＬＡＮＴＳＩＮＳＯＵＴＨＥＲＮＰＡＲＴＯＦＱＩＮＧＨＡＩＸＩＺＡＮＧＰＬＡＴＥＡＵＡＮＤＩＴＳＡＤＪＡＣＥＮＴＡＲＥＡＳＺｈａｏＫｕｉｙｉ（赵魁义）ＣｈａｎｇｃｈｕｎＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｙ...     

WINDOWS下实时气象资料接收及运行状态监视系统

气象资料接收的好坏,不可避免地影响到气象预报质量。该软件系统能实时动态监视气象资料的接收情况,及时获得资料的缺、迟、错等信息,及时补报,有利于提高资料的完整性及预报准确率。     

湘东北—桂北中元古界岩石地球化学特征

湘东北—桂北中元古代冷家溪群和四堡群的变玄武岩类显示过渡型拉斑玄武岩类的地球化学特征,变砂岩类和变泥岩类（绢云板岩类）显示大陆边缘的砂岩类和泥岩类的地球化学特征。根据岩石地球化学和沉积相（低密度流复理石建造）特征,推测湘东北冷家溪群和桂北四堡群主要形成于大陆边缘深水环境。