龙卷风的风强分析与极值推断

本文采用1955－1997年影响盐城市的龙卷风资料,按富士达F等级定义龙卷风风强分类级别,对盐城市受袭击点的破坏程度进行风强分级,并分析各个时段龙卷风风强等级的频数。应用耿贝尔极值分布理论,对影响盐城市的龙卷风风速极值进行统计推断,获得1％风险度龙卷风风速极值,以及各种特定重视期间的极值。     

利用气温与云顶亮温差值检测云方法研究

利用2005年7-12月卫星资料、地面观测资料、探空资料和地形资料,统计分析了无云条件下气温与云顶亮温的差值,结果表明：无云情况下气温与云顶亮温差值平均为5.04℃,且具有较大的日变化性。由此提出了按时次分别求取阈值用以检测云。通过个例对比分析,初步得出该方法检测云具有以下特点：可用于全天候云检测;不受地形地貌等因素的影响;该云检测方法应用于反演计算,不仅反演的中、高云区域与实测的比较一致,而且反演的低云区域与实测结果也比较一致。     

Simulated impacts of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole on summer precipitation at the Guinea Coast

An intermediate complexity atmospheric general circulation model has been used to investigate the influence of the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) dipole (SAOD) on summer precipitation over the Guinea Coast of West Africa. Two ensemble integrations in which idealized but realistic SAOD-type sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is prescribed only in the SAO, and then globally are performed and inter-compared. Consistently, above (below) the average precipitation is simulated over the Guinea Coast during the positive (negative) phase of the SAOD. Comparison of the two set of experiments reveal that in its active years, the SAOD is a dominant mechanism that shapes the spatial character of summer precipitation at the Guinea coast, the global SST variability merely slightly moderate its effects. During the SAOD, cool SST anomaly in the extra-tropical SAO off the Brazil–Uruguay–Argentina coast gives rise to suppressed convection and mass divergence. In turn, the subsidence tends to amplify the sub-tropical arm of anomalous Hadley-type circulation and consequently large scale convection and mass flux convergence in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean/Gulf of Guinea region bordering on the coastal fringes of West Africa. Precipitation is therefore increased at the Guinea Coast.     

Duplex equilibria of Ural circulation anomalies

Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Ural Mountains are crucial indicators of the anomalous downstream weather and climate over East Asia. Here, we provide a new perspective on the mechanism of Ural circulation anomalies. We use a simple theoretical model to determine that the relationship between the solar forcing and three Ural circulation patterns, namely, neutral type, trough anomaly and ridge anomaly, is a nonlinear relationship following the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation theory. The theory predicts that when the total solar irradiance (TSI) is below a critical value, trough and ridge anomalies represent duplex equilibria and are equally likely to occur at the same TSI. Based on 180 winter months record, we have estimated the bidimensional probability density of TSI and the monthly mean geopotential height at 500 hPa or zonal wind at 850 hPa over the Ural Mountains. Results show that Sc = 1360.9 W m−2 is a critical value of TSI, the neutral type pattern is the single circulation regime when TSI > Sc, whereas trough and ridge anomaly patterns are duplex circulation regimes when TSI < Sc. Besides, when TSI < Sc, during the same TSI range, trough and ridge anomaly events occur at nearly the same frequencies. These results generally agree with the theoretical model. We demonstrate that trough and ridge anomalies, as duplex equilibria, result from the large-scale zonal flow interacting with the Ural Mountains. Low TSI tends to strengthen the large-scale zonal flow over the Ural Mountains, hence inducing either a trough anomaly or ridge anomaly.     

Climate change impact to Mackenzie river Basin projected by a regional climate model

Climate Dynamics - A regional climate model, WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model), was set-up and fine-tuned to simulate the possible impacts of climate change to the Mackenzie River Basin...     

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium

To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.     

基于COMSOL的板式电涡流阻尼器数值模拟分析

电涡流阻尼器具有无需与结构接触、无磨损的特点,不存在如黏滞阻尼器容易出现漏液等问题。为了研究板式电涡流阻尼器的性能,首先对板式电涡流阻尼器的理论进行简述;然后基于电涡流阻尼系数测定试验,对采用COMSOL进行电涡流阻尼模拟方法和模型的可靠性进行验证;最后采用COMSOL和验证后的模拟方法对板式电涡流阻尼器的导磁间隙、导体板厚度、导体板背铁厚度、磁铁背铁厚度等进行参数分析。验证板式电涡流阻尼基本符合黏滞阻尼理论的假定,也证明采用COMSOL进行阻尼系数模拟的结果是可信的;分析发现导磁间隙和导体板厚度均对阻尼系数影响较大,而导体板和磁铁背铁的厚度对阻尼几乎没有影响。     

A Simplified Solution Using Izbash's Equation for Non-Darcian Flow in a Constant Rate Pumping Test

This paper derives an equivalent of Darcian Theis solution for non-Darcian flow induced by constant rate pumping of a well in a confined aquifer. The derivation, which is valid at later times only, is original. It utilizes Izbash's equation. This introduces an additional parameter to Darcian condition, namely, empirical exponent. The solution is a non-Drcian equivalent of Jacob straight line method for analyzing pumping tests at late times. It can be used to determine aquifer parameters: storativity, analogous hydraulic conductivity, and empirical exponent. However, while the Jacob method requires a minimum of only one pumping test with one observation well, the additional parameter in the present solution means that a minimum of two observation wells in one test or two pumping tests at different rates with one observation well are required. The derived solution is applied to a case study at Plomeur in Brittany, France, and is shown to provide a practical and efficient method for analyzing pumping tests where non-Darcian groundwater flow occurs.     

长输油气管道地震监测预警的应用与技术

在最近40年的管道工业中,地震灾害导致了大量管道破坏事故.长输管道地震监测预警的目的不是震前预报,而是震后紧急速报,为管道震后决策和紧急救援提供依据.介绍了地震监测预警系统在阿拉斯加管道、冀宁管道、东京煤气公司等管道上的典型应用,对地震监测预警的硬件和软件技术手段进行了分析.硬件手段有地震动参数监测、断层位移监测、管道泄漏监测以及数据传输;软件手段包括地震动参数处理、自动报警,以及灾情评估与管道维修咨询.     

镇江地震台网理论监测能力评估

基于近震震级公式,对镇江地震台网理论监测能力进行评估,绘制地震监测能力图,以确定监测区不同地点发生地震时能被台网有效分析和定位的地震最小震级。镇江市句容县在该台网理论监测震级最小,为ML1.2—1.3;在镇江及相邻城市,发生M_L 1.8分析认为,以上地震均能被有效监测。