Fine assessment of tropical cyclone disasters based on GIS and SVM in Zhejiang Province, China

Tropical cyclones represent major natural disasters in low- and mid-latitude coastal areas. Effective assessment of tropical cyclone disasters provides a scientific reference for the formulation of tropical cyclone prevention and disaster-relief measures. Tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province are mainly studied based on GIS technology, by considering disaster-causing factors, disaster-affected bodies, the disaster-formative environment, and spatial distribution of disaster prevention and relief capacity. In light of an uncertain nonlinear relationship between assessment factors and disaster factors, we used support vector machines to establish a fine, quantitative assessment model. This model evaluates the following disaster indices: Disaster-affected population, direct economic loss, affected crop area, and number of damaged houses resulting from a tropical cyclone disaster in Zhejiang, with the county as basic assessment unit. Assessment of tropical cyclone No. 0908 shows that the developed assessment model is able to accurately evaluate the geographical distribution of losses caused by a tropical cyclone.     

Assessment of economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters based on PCA-BP

Tropical cyclones are the most common natural disasters in coastal regions and are the most costly in terms of economic losses. Economic loss assessment is the basis for disaster prevention and alleviation and for insurance indemnification. We use data from 1970 to 2008 for Zhejiang Province, China, in this study evaluating economic losses. We convert direct economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province into indices of direct economic losses. To establish our assessment model, we process disaster-inducing assessment factors, disaster-formative environments and disaster-affected bodies using the principal component analysis method, and we abstract the principal component as the input of a BP neural network model. We found in the actual assessments of five tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province in 2007 and 2008 that the post-disaster loss assessment values of tropical cyclones were higher than the actual losses, but that for more severe storms, the gap was smaller. This reflects the beneficial effect of efforts toward disaster prevention and alleviation for severe tropical cyclones. Pre-assessments based on relatively accurate forecast values of wind and precipitation at the start of a tropical cyclone have been in accordance with the post-disaster assessment values, while the pre-assessment results using less accurate forecast values have been unsatisfactory. Therefore, this model can be applied in the actual assessment of direct economic loss from tropical cyclone damage, but increasingly accurate forecasting of wind and precipitation remains crucial to improving the accuracy of pre-assessments.     

A comprehensive survey of lignin geochemistry in the sedimentary organic matter along the Kapuas River (West Kalimantan, Indonesia)

In this first study of lignin geochemistry in the world’s longest river on an island, surface sediments were collected along the Kapuas River, three lakes in the upper river, a tributary in the lower river and a separate river during June-July 2007 and December 2007-January 2008. The samples were analyzed for lignin-derived phenols and bulk elemental and stable carbon isotope compositions. Λ values (the sum of eight lignin phenols, expressed as mg/100 mg organic carbon (OC)) ranged from 0.13 to 3.70. Ratios of syringyl/vanillyl (S/V) and cinnamyl/vanillyl (C/V) ranged from 0.34 to 1.18 and 0.28 to 1.40, respectively, indicating the presence of non-woody angiosperm tissues. The high vanillic acid to vanillin (Ad/Al)v (0.71-2.01) and syringic acid to syringaldehyde (Ad/Al)s (0.72-2.12) ratios indicate highly degraded lignin materials. In the upper Kapuas River, highly degraded soil materials discharged from lands that were barren as a result of deforestation activities were detected in the locations directly in those vicinities. The middle Kapuas River showed rapid organic matter degradation, probably due to the presence of fresh terrestrial and phytoplankton organic matter fueling the biogeochemical cycling. The Kapuas Kecil River, one of the two branches in the lower reach of the Kapuas River, showed higher levels and diagenesis of sedimentary organic matter due to input from anthropogenic sources and increased marine organic matter near the mouth. This study shows that different stretches along the river exhibit different levels and composition of sedimentary organic matter, as well as different carbon dynamics, which is directly attributable to the varying landscapes and quality of organic matter.     

地下结构对工程场地地震动场的影响

本文以日本神户市地铁大开站为工程背景,应用大型通用有限元ANSYS软件,分别建立了自然条件下的工程场地土层和建有地下车站结构的土层的二维有限元分析模型。计算了基岩一致地震动输入模式下2个土层模型的动力反应。通过将2个土层模型的动力反应进行比较分析,讨论了地下结构对工程场地地震动场的影响。分析结果表明,日本神户地铁大开站的存在对其邻近区域土层的地震反应有影响,但影响有限。     

Molecular weight and chemical reactivity of dissolved trace metals (Cd,Cu, Ni) in surface waters from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico

It is generally assumed that estuarine mixing is continuous for metals from terrestrial sources, gradually decreasing towards the open ocean endmember. Here we show that, chemical reactivity, determined by ion exchange method, and molecular weight distributions, obtained using cross-flow ultrafiltration, of dissolved Cd, Cu, and Ni in the surface waters of the Gulf of Mexico varied systematically across the estuarine mixing zone of the Mississippi River. Most size or chemical affinity fractions of dissolved metals (<0.4 μm) were linearly related to salinity (10.8–36.6), suggesting that the distribution of these elements was mainly controlled by continuous mixing processes. Dissolved concentrations across the salinity gradient ranged for Cd: 87–187 pM; Cu: 1.4–18.3 nM; and Ni: 2.6–18.8 nM, with highest values near the Mississippi river mouth, and lowest concentrations in a warm core ring in the Gulf of Mexico. Dissolved Cd was mostly present as a truly dissolved (<10 kDa, 97 ± 1%) and cationic fraction (Chelex-100 extractable, 94 ± 4%). A novel observation across the estuarine mixing zone was that colloidal metal concentrations were identical to either inert (for Cu, Ni) or AMPG-labile anionic (Cu, Cd) fractions. The difference in behavior between Cu and the other two metals might indicate differences in the biopolymeric nature of the metal–organic chelates. In particular, the anionic-organic Cd fractions accounted for just 3 ± 1%, on average. However, for Cu, it was 24 ± 4%, and for Ni, it was 9 ± 6%. The fractions of the total dissolved metal fractions that were “inert” averaged 31 ± 10% for Cu and 29 ± 12% for Ni. Small but noticeable amounts (6 ± 3%) of dissolved inert Cd fractions were also present. Apparent non-local transport processes, likely associated with cross-shelf sediment resuspension processes, could have been responsible for the relatively high concentrations of ‘inert’ and ‘anionic’ metal fractions in high salinity coastal waters, and accounting for the persistence of metals bound to humic substances in the Gulf of Mexico.     

An integrated multi-azimuth VSP study for fracture characterization in the vicinity of a well

We present the analysis of a multi-azimuth vertical seismic profiling data set that has been acquired in a tight gas field with the objective of characterizing fracture distributions using seismic anisotropy. We investigate different measurements of anisotropy, which are shear-wave splitting, P-wave traveltime anisotropy and azimuthal amplitude variation with offset. We find that for our field case shear-wave splitting is the most robust measure of azimuthal anisotropy, which is clearly observed over two distinct intervals in the target. We compare the results of the vertical seismic profiling analysis with other borehole data from the same well. Cross-dipole sonic and Formation MicroImager data from the reservoir section suggest that no open fractures intersect the well or are present within half a metre of the borehole wall. Furthermore, a detailed dispersion analysis of the sonic scanner data provides no indication of stress-induced seismic anisotropy along the logged borehole section. We therefore explain the azimuthal anisotropy measured in the vertical seismic profiling data with a model that contains discrete fracture corridors, which do not intersect the well itself but lie within the vertical seismic profiling investigation radius. We show that such a model can reproduce some basic characteristics of azimuthal anisotropy observed in the vertical seismic profiling data. The model is also consistent with well test data that suggest the presence of a fracture corridor away from the well. With this study we demonstrate the necessity of integrating different data types that investigate different scales of rock volume and can provide complementary information for understanding the characteristics of fracture networks in the subsurface.     

Geophysical Finite-Element Simulation Tool (GeoFEST): Algorithms and Validation for Quasistatic Regional Faulted Crust Problems

GeoFEST (Geophysical Finite Element Simulation Tool) is a two- and three-dimensional finite element software package for the modeling of solid stress and strain in geophysical and other continuum domain applications. It is one of the featured high-performance applications of the NASA QuakeSim project. The program is targeted to be compiled and run on UNIX systems, and is running on diverse systems including sequential and message-passing parallel systems. Solution to the elliptical partial differential equations is obtained by finite element basis sampling, resulting in a sparse linear system primarily solved by conjugate gradient iteration to a tolerance level; on sequential systems a Crout factorization for the direct inversion of the linear system is also supported. The physics models supported include isotropic linear elasticity and both Newtonian and power-law viscoelasticity, via implicit quasi-static time stepping. In addition to triangular, quadrilateral, tetrahedral and hexahedral continuum elements, GeoFEST supports split-node faulting, body forces, and surface tractions. This software and related mesh refinement strategies have been validated on a variety of test cases with rigorous comparison to analytical solutions. These include a box-shaped domain with imposed motion on one surface, a pair of strike slip faults in stepover arrangement, and two community-agreed benchmark cases: a strike slip fault in an enclosing box, and a quarter-domain circular fault problem. Scientific applications of the code include the modeling of static and transient co- and post-seismic earth deformation, Earth response to glacial, atmospheric and hydrological loading, and other scenarios involving the bulk deformation of geologic media.     

大型直流电压发生器塔架结构地震响应分析

本文以某一大型直流电压发生器塔架结构为例,建立有限元计算模型,采用调幅正弦五波、Taft地震波、El-Centro地震波、云南澜沧地震波和正弦三波5种地震动输入,通过数值计算,讨论了不同输入地震波对于结构抗震设计的影响。结果表明,地震作用效应在这类特种结构的组合响应中起重要影响,采用调幅正弦五波、正弦三波作为地震输入,过分夸大了实际的地震作用效应。最后,对这类特种结构的输入地震动提出了相应建议。     

亚洲大陆主要活动块体的现今构造应力数值模拟

亚洲大陆晚新生代和现代构造变形以活动地块为主要特征,表现为在统一构造格局下不同地块间具有不同的运动方式和速度。为了研究这些具有不同运动学性质块体间的相互作用以及构造变形特征,基于亚洲大陆的总体构造格局构建了二维有限元模型。根据模拟结果,对比已知GPS数据、震源机制解以及地质调查数据等,定量分析了大陆内部主要活动地块构造应力场的分布特征,并探讨了影响亚洲大陆现今构造变形特征的主要因素。结果表明：在我国的西部陆块内,由于周边一系列近EW向弧形活动构造带的存在,导致其内部次级块体运动速率的衰减,从而进一步导致应力环境的变化,由青藏中部的挤压-拉张环境逐渐转变为塔里木、天山地区的完全挤压环境;在西伯利亚地块和印度板块的联合挤压作用下,华北地块上地壳的应力表现为较弱的挤压环境,而在该种应力环境下块体内部伸展构造的成因很可能与其深部的动力学环境有关;华南地块的运动方向与台湾造山带相反,从而形成一个秦岭-大别造山带以南的较强烈的挤压-拉张区;在印度-澳大利亚板块和菲律宾俯冲板块的联合挤压作用下,巽他地块作为华南地块和印支地块的逃逸窗口,表现出以婆罗洲、南海为中心近圆弧形的弱挤压区以及环绕挤压区外缘挤压-拉张区的应力分布特征。     

柴达木盆地东部石炭系页岩三维裂缝网络模型研究

裂缝既是页岩气的聚集空间,同时也是页岩气的运移通道, 对页岩气成藏起着重要控制作用。裂缝的产状、密度、组合特征等很大程度上决定了页岩气是否具有开发价值。该研究对柴达木盆地东部的13个露头的岩石裂缝进行了野外观测统计,实测裂缝1 000多条,选取了三个具有代表性的页岩露头进行统计分析建模。通过野外观测和室内统计分析发现,工作区页岩裂缝发育有三组(某些地段一组不发育),各组裂缝的方向满足Fisher分布,迹线长度满足对数正态分布。确定了各组裂缝方向、长度的均值和方差,以及各组裂缝的密度,建立了三维裂缝网络模型,绘出了模拟的三维裂缝网络图。裂缝三维模型为圆盘模型,即假设单个裂缝三维空间上具有圆盘形状。建模过程采用了逆建模方法,其基本原则是通过拟合实测的二维露头观测数据,优化裂缝三维大小和密度参数,使模型能够准确再现野外所观测到的实际现象,包括露头面上不同裂缝的数量、密度和长度。该研究对柴达木盆地东部石炭系页岩裂缝描述达到了定量化,为研究页岩中油气运移提供了很好的基础数据。