四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究

借鉴美国旧金山湾和香港地区的经验,提出了地质灾害监测预警试验区建设和研究思路。经过近两年的工作,初步建成了四川雅安地质灾害监测预警试验区。取得的阶段性成果主要有:(1)根据现场考察和试验区地质灾害数据库,统计研究了降雨型滑坡的几何特征;(2)建成了由20台遥测雨量计构成的降雨观测网,取得了2002年4月～2003年8月的降雨观测数据;(3)结合历史降雨资料分析,初步研究了雅安试验区的年、日、小时和十分钟最大降雨特征;(4)研制了斜坡岩土体含水量野外监测仪,取得了桑树坡试验点2003年4月～8月的实时监测数据;(5)自上而下分4层研究了斜坡岩土层含水量变化,发现了岩土层含水量变化对降雨过程的滞后性;(6)基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),利用地质灾害因子分析结果,分别计算了雅安试验区地质灾害"发育度"和"潜势度";(7)利用2003年8月23～25日的过程降雨观测资料,对雅安试验区在该降雨过程中发生的地质灾害事件进行了时空预警反演模拟研究,计算出的地质灾害"危险度"分布比较符合实际,"危险度"可以作为预警指数使用。     

基础地理信息应用服务研究

本文全面、系统地分析了基础地理信息在地理信息产业中的作用、基础地理信息的各种应用，并在此基础上提出了基础地理信息的服务策略。     

Estimating severity of liquefaction-induced damage near foundation

An empirical procedure for estimating the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations of existing buildings is established. The procedure is based on an examination of 30 case histories from recent earthquakes. The data for these case histories consist of observations of the damage that resulted from liquefaction, and the subsurface soil conditions as revealed by cone penetration tests. These field observations are used to classify these cases into one of three damaging effect categories, ‘no damage’, ‘minor to moderate damage’, and ‘major damage’. The potential for liquefaction-induced ground failure at each site is calculated and expressed as the probability of ground failure. The relationship between the probability of ground failure and the damage class is established, which allows for the evaluation of the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations. The procedure presented herein represents a significant attempt to address the issue of liquefaction effect. Caution must be exercised, however, when using the proposed model and procedure for estimating liquefaction damage severity, because they are developed based on limited number of case histories.     

Converted-wave seismology in anisotropic media revisited,Part I: Basic theory

We have developed new basic theories for calculating the conversion point and the travel time of the P-SV converted wave (C-wave) in anisotropic, inhomogeneous media. This enables the use of conventional procedures such as semblance analysis, Dix-type model building and Kirchhoff summation, to implement anisotropic processing, and makes anisotropic processing affordable. Here we present these new developments in two parts: basic theory and application to velocity analysis and parameter estimation. This part deals with the basic theory, including both conversion-point calculation and moveout analysis. Existing equations for calculating the PS-wave (C-wave) conversion point in layered media with vertical transverse isotropy (VTI) are strictly limited to offsets about half the reflector depth (an offset-depth ratio, xlz, of 0.5), and those for calculating the C-wave traveltimes are limited to offsets equal to the reflector depth (x/z=l.0). In contrast, the new equations for calculating the conversion-point extend into offsets about three-times the reflector depth (x/z=3.0), those for calculating the C-wave traveltimes extend into offsets twice the reflector depth (x/z=2.0). With the improved accuracy, the equations can help in C-wave data processing and parameter estimation in anisotropic, inhomogeneous media. This work is funded by the Edinburgh Anisotropy Project (EAP) of the British Geological Survey. First author: Xiangyang Li, Mr. Li is currently a professorial research seismologist (Grade 6) and technical director of the Edinburgh Anisotropy Project in the British Geological Survey. He also holds a honorary professorship in multicomponent seismology at the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh. He received his BSc(1982) in Geophysics from Changchun Geological Institute, China, an MSc (1984) in applied geophysics from East China Petroleum Institute (now known as the China University of Petroleum), and a PhD (1992) in seismology from the University of Edinburgh. During 1984–1987, he worked as a lecturer with the East China Petroleum Institute. Since 1991, he has been employed by the British Geological Survey. His research interests include seismic anisotropy and multicomponent seismology.     

滑坡监测的新方法——PMP测量方法

文章从国内外滑坡灾害、滑坡灾害的危害及现有滑坡监测方法等方面，论述了滑坡灾害带来的危害性，从而验证了滑坡监测的重要性。但目前现行的滑坡监测手段各有不足之处。针对这种情况，提出了新的测量方法改进其不足之处。位相测量剖面术的测量原理是将LCD投影仪安装于滑坡体上，在滑坡体外稳定地带放置监测系统，CCD光束中心垂直于滑坡体位移方向，监测系统由望远镜头和CCD组成，CCD输出的视频信号进入计算机。通过软件对图像进行处理，绘制出滑坡整体的三维面貌，并计算出滑动的距离，从而有效的观测滑坡体的运动过程。     

Analysis of the environmental sensitivities of a typical dynamic epikarst system at the Nongla monitoring site, Guangxi, China

Nongla, a typical karst dynamic system (KDS) monitoring site, is located at Nongla Village, Mashan County, Guangxi, China. The data from a Greenspan CTDP300 multichannel data logger indicates that the KDS is highly sensitive to environmental changes. Multi-day and diurnal physico-chemical composition of epikarst spring water is quite different under different climatic conditions. During a day with no rainfall, water temperature and air temperature have similar variations. Electrical conductivity (EC) has good positive correlation with pH value and water temperature. During rainstorms, the physico-chemical composition of the spring water is initially strongly effected by dilution, pH and EC drop rapidly. However, half to one hour later, EC returns to normal and the CO₂ effects will be the dominant physical effect. This is due to the high fissure rates and high permeability in the epikarst zone. Dilution effects were observed during the entire rainstorm event,whereas, it only acts during the earliest period of light rain. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the water–rock–CO₂ combination as a whole system to explain the hydrochemical behavior of epikarst processes.     

Optical system research of multi-object fiber spectroscopic survey telescope

In the first part of this paper,four different Cassegrain optical systems with their correctors are designed and studied for multi-object fiber slit spectroscopic survey.The aperture in 6.5 m and field of view 3°are taken for these optical systems.Assuming observation wavelength range is 0.365–0.95μm,the maximum zenith distance for observing is 60°,the maximum diameter of these lenses is 1.66 m,the altitude of the telescope site is 2500 m,two correctors are composed of 4-piece lenses and the other two are 5-piece lenses.The results obtained are:f-ratio about 3.7,the image quality for all four systems with EE80D≤0.60′′,the linear diameter of the focal surface is about 1.2 m and 11 000 fibers can be set on it.Considering the limit of size of fused silica and optical glass,the maximum diameter for lens is about 1.7 m.Such a 6.5 m telescope is about the largest one if using the above correctors.Considering the multiobject spectroscopic survey is greatly important,we also studied some telescope optical systems having their aperture near or larger than 10 m used for the multi-object fiber spectroscopic survey.Such ideas are introduced in the last section of this paper.     

无控制点条件下SPOT5卫星影像海上目标定位技术

对于海上目标的遥感影像定位,由于控制点获取的困难性严重影响了其发展与应用。研究了SPOT5卫星HRS立体像对的成像原理,通过一系列坐标系变换,构建了一种无需地面控制点的直接对地绝对定位模型。试验表明,在没有控制点的条件下利用SPOT5遥感影像进行定位,平面定位精度和高程定位精度均可以达到优于70m的水平,这对于海上目标定位具有很好的实用价值。     

基于门限回归的气温对光伏发电量的影响分析

光伏发电与气象要素密切相关,正确认识气象因子对于光伏发电量及其发电效率的影响是进行发电量预测和维持光伏电站稳定运行的重要基础。采用江苏省淮安市某小型光伏电站2018—2020年发电量数据、淮安市太阳辐射观测站数据及光伏电站附近气象站观测数据,分析气温、太阳总辐射等气象因子对光伏发电量的影响。相关性分析结果表明,光伏发电量与太阳总辐射呈极强的正相关,基本随太阳总辐射的变化而变化;与气温、降水分别呈弱的正相关和弱的负相关;与风速几乎无相关。然而,灰色关联度分析显示,光伏发电量还与气温呈现出较高的灰色关联度。进一步分析表明,光伏发电量随太阳总辐射的变化受到气温的明显调制,不同气温下光伏发电效率不同。门限回归分析显示,当气温达到一定阈值时光伏发电效率会出现下降,具体表现为：当气温达到12.1 ℃,光伏发电效率下降26.7%;当气温超过22.8 ℃,光伏发电效率下降43.7%。使用这两个温度阈值建立的TR（Threshold Regression）模型的准确率要比线性回归模型提高约10%。     

世界海洋油气资源与勘探模式概述

描述了全球海洋油气储量的总体情况、海洋油气资源的地域分布以及海洋油气产量的状况与增长趋势。简略阐述了海洋油气勘探的阶段划分、海洋地质调查、海洋地球化学勘探、海洋非地震地球物理勘探以及海洋地震勘探各方法的基本特点、关键技术和常用手段等。对海洋油气勘探的前景,尤其是深水区和天然气水合物的勘探前景作了展望。