中国北方地下煤层发火概率统计分析

二项逻辑回归模型能够弥补样本量小、自变量类型不统一等不足, 对因变量数据假设的要求较低, 可用来预测具有二分特点的因变量概率值。以新疆现存的地下煤火火点与随机生成的控制点作为建立回归方程的样本, 以煤质指标中的灰分、挥发分、硫分、发热量, 煤层上覆岩层的地质年代、地表坡度与深大断裂带的分布, 以及干燥度、人口密度与矿区的管理水平等11个指标作为自变量, 以火点为1与控制点为0作为因变量值, 运用二项逻辑回归模型建立回归方程, 并预测了中国北方11个省区的地下煤层发火(地下煤火)概率。结果显示, 研究区内地下煤火发火概率的分布局势总体上为：东部等级高且集中;西部等级较低;在各大煤田中, 极高与高等级发火概率均有分布。经验证, 研究结果精度可达67.7%左右, 且预测高发区与原煤火发生区域相当匹配, 中国北方地下煤火的发火概率等级分布图可以作为灭火工程实施与火区治理的参考。     

内马铁路一期工程局部不规则二维场地地震反应分析

基于内马铁路一期工程地质资料,利用ABAQUS有限元软件建立某局部不规则二维场地有限元计算模型,利用Python语言进行二次开发,编制二维等效线性化计算程序。开展50年超越概率63%、10%和2%水准下的土层地震反应分析计算,对不规则地形不同位置处的地震动峰值加速度和频谱特性进行对比分析。研究结果表明,不规则地形对地震动特性的影响显著。本文研究结果对内马铁路一期工程地震动参数确定具有指导意义,同时可为跨越不规则地形工程结构抗震设计提供参考。     

Quantifying the impact of landscape changes on hydrological variables in the alpine and cold region using hydrological model and remote sensing data

Quantifying the impact of landscape on hydrological variables is essential for the sustainable development of water resources. Understanding how landscape changes influence hydrological variables will greatly enhance the understanding of hydrological processes. Important vegetation parameters are considered in this study by using remote sensing data and VIC-CAS model to analyse the impact of landscape changes on hydrology in upper reaches of the Shule River Basin (URSLB). The results show there are differences in the runoff generation of landscape both in space and time. With increasing altitude, the runoff yields increased, with approximately 79.9% of the total runoff generated in the high mountains (4200–5900 m), and mainly consumed in the mid-low mountain region. Glacier landscape produced the largest runoff yields (24.9% of the total runoff), followed by low-coverage grassland (LG; 22.5%), alpine cold desert (AL; 19.6%), mid-coverage grassland (MG; 15.6%), bare land (12.5%), high-coverage grassland (HG; 4.5%) and shrubbery (0.4%). The relative capacity of runoff generation by landscapes, from high to low, was the glaciers, AL, LG, HG, MG, shrubbery and bare land. Furthermore, changes in landscapes cause hydrological variables changes, including evapotranspiration, runoff and baseflow. The study revealed that HG, MG, and bare land have a positive impact on evapotranspiration and a negative impact on runoff and baseflow, whereas AL and LG have a positive impact on runoff and baseflow and a negative impact on evapotranspiration. In contrast, glaciers have a positive impact on runoff. After the simulation in four vegetation scenarios, we concluded that the runoff regulation ability of grassland is greater than that of bare land. The grassland landscape is essential since it reduced the flood peak and conserved the soil and water.     

A numerical study of mechanical behavior of a cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching

Based on relevant experimental data of a petroleum cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching, an elastic‐plastic model is first proposed by taking into account plastic shearing and pore collapse. The degradation of mechanical properties induced by the chemical leaching is characterized by a chemical damage variable which is defined as the increase of porosity. Both elastic and plastic properties of the cement paste are affected by the chemical damage. The proposed model is calibrated from and applied to describe mechanical responses in triaxial compression tests respectively on sound and fully leached samples. In the second part, a phenomenological chemical model is defined to establish the relationship between porosity change and calcium dissolution process. The dissolution kinetics is governed by a diffusion law taking into account the variation of diffusion coefficient with calcium concentration. The chemical model is coupled with the mechanical model, and both are applied to describe mechanical response of cement paste samples subjected to progressive chemical leaching and compressive stresses. Comparisons between experimental data and numerical results are presented.     

Energy partitioning over a semi‐arid shrubland in northern China

During the last decade, the widely distributed shrublands in northern China have shown significant signs of recovery from desertification, the result of widespread conservation practices. However, to support the current efforts in conservation, more knowledge is needed on surface energy partitioning and its biophysical controls. Using eddy‐covariance measurements made over a semi‐arid shrubland in northwest China in 2012, we examined how surface energy‐balance components vary on diurnal and seasonal scales, and how biophysical factors control bulk surface parameters and energy exchange. Sensible heat flux (H) exceeded latent heat flux (λE) during most of the year, resulting in an annual Bowen ratio (β, i.e. H/λE) of 2.0. λE exceeded H only in mid‐summer when frequent rainfall co‐occurred with the seasonal peak in leaf area index (LAI). Evapotranspiration reached a daily maximum of 3.3 mm day^?1, and summed to 283 mm yr^?1. The evaporative fraction (EF, i.e. λE/R_n), Priestley–Taylor coefficient (α), surface conductance (g_s) and decoupling coefficient (Ω) were all positively correlated with soil water content (SWC) and LAI. The direct enhancement of λE by high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) was buffered by a concurrent suppression of g_s. The g_s played a direct role in controlling EF and α by mediating the effects of LAI, SWC and VPD. Our results highlight the importance of adaptive plant responses to water scarcity in regulating ecosystem energy partitioning, and suggest an important role for revegetation in the reversal of desertification in semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporation of a dynamic root distribution into CLM4.5: Evaluation of carbon and water fluxes over the Amazon

Roots are responsible for the uptake of water and nutrients by plants and have the plasticity to dynamically respond to different environmental conditions. However, most land surface models currently prescribe rooting profiles as a function only of vegetation type, with no consideration of the surroundings. In this study, a dynamic rooting scheme, which describes root growth as a compromise between water and nitrogen availability, was incorporated into CLM4.5 with carbon–nitrogen(CN) interactions(CLM4.5-CN) to investigate the effects of a dynamic root distribution on eco-hydrological modeling. Two paired numerical simulations were conducted for the Tapajos National Forest km83(BRSa3) site and the Amazon, one using CLM4.5-CN without the dynamic rooting scheme and the other including the proposed scheme. Simulations for the BRSa3 site showed that inclusion of the dynamic rooting scheme increased the amplitudes and peak values of diurnal gross primary production(GPP) and latent heat flux(LE) for the dry season, and improved the carbon(C) and water cycle modeling by reducing the RMSE of GPP by 0.4 g C m~(-2)d~(-1), net ecosystem exchange by 1.96 g C m~(-2)d~(-1), LE by 5.0 W m~(-2), and soil moisture by 0.03 m~3m~(-3), at the seasonal scale, compared with eddy flux measurements, while having little impact during the wet season. For the Amazon, regional analysis also revealed that vegetation responses(including GPP and LE) to seasonal drought and the severe drought of 2005 were better captured with the dynamic rooting scheme incorporated.     

Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.     

A Method for Automatically Selecting Aids to Navigation Based on their Spatial Influence Domains

To address the limitations of manually selecting aids to navigation (AtNs) on charts, a method for automatically selecting AtNs based on their spatial influence domains (SIDs) is proposed. First, the associations between the spatial attributes of an AtN are analyzed. Second, an SID of the AtN is defined, and a model of the SID is constructed based on the associations between the spatial attributes. Third, the importance of the location of the AtN is weighted based on the SID model. Fourth, an algorithm to automatically select AtNs based on the maximum coverage of the SIDS of preselected AtNs is developed. Finally, several AtNs are selected automatically using the algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that (1) the proposed method can automatically select AtNs and the results comply with the requirements; (2) the automatic selection can eliminate the human-induced errors or the inconsistent results of manual selections from different operators; and (3) the efficiency of the proposed method is higher than that of current manual methods.     

Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was 0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.