利用FY-3C折射率对大气边界层高度的反演与分析

2013年中国发射了首颗进行全球导航卫星系统(global navigation satellite system,GNSS)掩星观测的气象卫星风云3号C星(Fengyun-3C,FY-3C),且已发布自2014年6月以来的FY-3C掩星大气产品,但目前还未见将其应用于大气边界层的相关研究。首次尝试利用FY-3C折射率产品确定边界层高度并进一步进行空间分布分析。结果表明,在小波协方差变换法基础上,进行尖锐度约束,能够确定FY-3C掩星低层大气折射率廓线中可能存在的突变,反演边界层高度。所得到的2015―2018年各年边界层高度全球分布在不同纬度及海洋和陆地上的差异基本体现了边界层与地表气候及地形的关系,但FY-3C折射率产品在低层大气的精度和垂直分辨率相对较低。因此,反演成功率总体上较低,反演结果对边界层高度空间分布细节特征的呈现仍有待提升。     

基于地面三维激光扫描仪的塔式建筑物变形监测研究

针对传统变形监测手段面对高大的塔式建筑物时观测困难的问题,以云南大学呈贡校区塔式建筑物为研究对象,采用Leica P40地面三维激光扫描仪对其进行两期三维点云数据采集,经点云数据绝对定向、拼接与融合等数据处理后,构建两期点云数据模型,对两期数据进行模型拟合与点位差异分析.结果表明:该塔式建筑物整体未发生明显水平位移与沉降,墙体表面存在脱落可能.该结论表明基于地面三维激光扫描仪的高塔建筑物形变分析可行.     

Critical conditions for natural gas charging and delineation of effective gas source rocks for tight sandstone reservoirs

Although it has been shown that the potential of tight‐sand gas resources is large, the research into the mechanisms of hydrocarbon charging of tight sandstone reservoirs has been relatively sparse. Researchers have found that there is a force balance during hydrocarbon charging, but discriminant models still have not been established. Based on the force balance conditions observed during gas migration from source rocks to tight sandstone reservoirs, a calculation formula was established. A formula for identifying effective source rocks was developed with the gas expulsion intensity as the discrimination parameter. The critical gas expulsion intensity under conditions of various burial depths, temperatures, and pressures can be obtained using the calculation formula. This method was applied in the Jurassic tight sandstone reservoirs of the eastern Kuqa Depression, Tarim Basin, and it was calculated that the critical expulsion intensity range from 6.05 × 10⁸ m³/km² to 10.07 × 10⁸ m³/km². The critical gas charging force first increases with depth and later decreases with greater depths. The distribution range of effective gas source rocks and total expelled gas volume can be determined based on this threshold. This method provides new insight into and method for predicting favourable tight‐sand gas‐bearing regions and estimating their resource potentials. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemical characterization of Archaean amphibolites from the eastern part of Anshan–Benxi iron producing area,northeastern China: implication for tectonic setting of BIFs

The Anshan–Benxi iron producing area, which is located at the northeastern margin of the North China Craton, is the main distribution area of Archaean BIFs in China. In their eastern part, including the Gongchangling and Waitoushan deposits, BIFs mainly are hosted in the Archaean middle Anshan Group. Amphibolites are widely distributed in the iron‐bearing rock series, reflecting the tectonic setting of BIFs. Amphibolites not only have MORB‐like compositional characteristics, but also have island arc‐like ones, and they are consistent with back‐arc basin basalts (BABB). In the study area, the protolith of amphibolites belongs to Okinawa‐type BABB; it indicates that tectonic setting of BIFs is the intra‐continental back‐arc basin. In the study area, the formation of sedimentary basins for BIFs had been associated with oceanic plate subduction. Amphibolites from Gongchangling deposit are characterized by relative enrichments in LILE and LREE, and depletions in HFSE. This indicates that they had a relatively large influence of subduction in their formation. Amphibolites from Waitoushan deposit are characterized by relative enrichments in LILE without conspicuous depletions in HFSE, indicating relatively low subduction rates. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrocarbon generation and expulsion characteristics of Lower Permian P1f source rocks in the Fengcheng area,northwest margin,Junggar Basin,NW China: implications for tight oil accumulation potential assessment

Combined with the actual geological settings, tight oil is the oil that occurs in shale or tight reservoirs, which has permeability less than 1 mD and is interbedded with or close to shale, including tight dolomitic oil and shale oil. The Fengcheng area (FA), at the northwest margin of the Junggar Basin, northwest China, has made significant progress in the tight oil exploration of the Fengcheng (P₁f) Formation recently, which indicates that the tight oil resources have good exploration prospects. Whereas the lack of recognition of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion characteristics of Permian P₁f source rocks results in the misunderstanding of tight oil resource potential. Based on the comprehensive analysis of geological and geochemical characteristics of wells, seismic inversion, sedimentary facies, tectonic burial depth, etc., the characteristics of P₁f source rocks were investigated, and the horizontal distributions of the following aspects were predicted: the thickness of source rocks, abundance and type of organic matter. And on this basis, an improved hydrocarbon generation potential methodology together with basin simulation techniques was applied to unravel the petroleum generation and expulsion characteristics of P₁f source rocks in FA. Results show that the P₁f source rocks distribute widely (up to 2039 km²), are thick (up to 260 m), have high total organic content (TOC, ranging from 0.15 to 4 wt%), are dominated by type II kerogen and have entered into low mature–mature stage. The modeling results indicate that the source rocks reached hydrocarbon generation threshold and hydrocarbon expulsion threshold at 0.5% Ro and 0.85% Ro and the comprehensive hydrocarbon expulsion efficiency was about 46%. The amount of generation and expulsion from the P₁f source rocks was 31.85 × 10⁸ and 15.31 × 10⁸ t, respectively, with a residual amount of 16.54 × 10⁸ t within the source rocks. Volumetrically, the geological resource of shale oil is up to 15.65 × 10⁸ t. Small differences between the amounts calculated by the volumetric method compared with that by hydrocarbon generation potential methodology may be due to other oil accumulations present within interbedded sands associated with the oil shales. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新型GPS探空仪与业务GTS1 2探空仪对比分析

2012年8月,中国气象局气象探测中心在广东阳江开展自动探空系统新型GPS探空仪比对试验,对比分析其技术改进后的准确性,试验结果表明：温度测量性明显优于GTS1 2型探空仪。湿度测量结果与RS92型探空仪一致性较好,系统误差在15%RH内,标准偏差在12%RH内。气压系统误差全量程在±10 hPa内,标准偏差在08 hPa内。位势高度系统误差在±20 gpm以内,标准偏差在70 gpm内。GPS定位测风性能优于GTS1 2型探空仪配合L波段二次测风雷达测风性能结果。     

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.     

上海“7·31”局地强对流快速更新同化数值模拟研究

利用雷达、自动气象站、飞机观测(AMDAR)和探空等多种观测资料,采用中尺度数值预报模式WRF和资料同化系统ADAS,对2011年7月31日上海局地强对流过程进行了快速更新同化数值试验。结果表明,数值试验模拟降水的发生时间、落区和随时间演变与实况基本一致,较好再现了海陆热力差异导致上海南北两支海陆风爆发、形成低层辐合线,在热岛效应的叠加下进一步增强,继而引发局地强对流的过程。快速更新同化技术可有效延长此次过程的预警时效,这为城市强对流业务预报提供了新的思路。     

MJO预报研究进展

热带大气季节内振荡 (Madden-Julian oscillation,MJO) 是次季节-季节时间尺度气候变率的支配模态。它不仅对低纬度地区天气气候产生重要影响,还能够通过经向传播和激发大气遥相关波列对中高纬度地区产生影响,是延伸期尺度最重要的可预报性来源。因此,MJO预报是次季节-季节气候预测中极为重要的部分,近年来受到国际学术界广泛关注。该文回顾了MJO预报发展历史,概述了当前国际上主要科研业务机构的MJO预报发展现状。目前基于统计方法和气候模式的MJO预报研究取得了较大进展,特别是多个耦合气候模式和一种基于时空投影方法的统计模型均能够显著提升MJO预报技巧 (有效预报可达20 d以上)。该文还介绍了中国气象局国家气候中心在MJO预报技术发展和业务系统研制方面的新进展,当前基于第2代大气环流模式的MJO业务预报填补了国内空白,技巧为16~17 d,而耦合气候模式试验的技巧已达到约20 d。总体来看,利用耦合模式预报MJO是未来发展的主要方向,其中,面向MJO的模式初始化和集合预报新方法研究将是关注重点。