一次飑线天气过程的综合分析

利用常规观测资料和自动气象站资料、雷达回波图,从天气学、不稳定层结及水汽条件和雷达回波特征等方面综合分析了2006年6月25日影响洛阳的一次飑线天气过程的活动规律和物理成因.分析表明:此次较强的飑线天气过程是在高空冷涡后部西北气流的天气尺度形势下出现的,中尺度对流系统飑线以后续线型为主的型式形成.高空弱冷空气的入侵加剧了层结的不稳定性.弓形或带状回波、强(55 dBz以上)又高(或高度突降)的雷达反射率因子、逆风区、入流缺口、强的风速辐合带、高VIL值(50 kg·m-2以上)或VIL值突变及冰雹指数等雷达回波特征,对此类强对流天气的发生有较好的预警作用.     

辽宁省近50年霜的气候变化特征

主要使用辽宁省35个站点1957—2006年霜的地面观测资料以及相应时间的温度资料分析了该区霜的变化特征及其受气候变暖的影响,得到如下结论:近50年辽宁省初霜日期推迟近10 d,终霜日期提前约17 d,无霜期日数增加约26 d;初、终霜日期和无霜期日数在20世纪90年代初发生突变;从空间分布来看,初霜日期明显推后、终霜日期显著提前、无霜期增多的区域主要分布在辽宁中部、西部以及辽东半岛的部分地区;初霜日期与9月份各温度因子相关性较与其他各月高,终霜日期与4月份各温度因子相关性较强,无霜期主要受4—9月间各温度因子的影响;初霜期推迟、终霜期提前以及无霜期延长都主要是由温度的升高引起的,其中平均最低地面温度、平均最低气温是最重要的影响因素;伴随气候变暖,辽宁省初、终霜发生日期以及无霜期长度的空间分布都显示出由西南向东北方向推移的特点。     

Bottom to top lithosphere structure and evolution of western Eger Rift (Central Europe)

We present model of the structure and development of the entire lithosphere beneath the western Eger Rift (ER). Its crustal architecture and paths of volcanic products are closely related to sutures/boundaries of uppermost mantle domains distinguished by different orientations of olivine fabric, derived from 3-D analysis of seismic anisotropy. Three different fabrics of the mantle lithosphere belong to the Saxothuringian (ST), Teplá-Barrandian (TB) and Moldanubian (MD) microplates assembled during the Variscan orogeny. Dipping fossil (pre-assembly) olivine orientations, consistent within each unit, do not support any voluminous mantle delamination. The variable rift structure and morphology depend on the character of the pre-rift suture between the northern ST unit and the TB/MD units in the southern rift flank. The proper rift with typical graben morphology has developed above the steep lithosphere-scale suture between the ST and TB units. This subduction-related boundary originated from the closure of the ST Ocean. Parts of the crust and mantle lithosphere were dragged there into asthenospheric depths and then rapidly uplifted. The suture is marked by abrupt change in the mantle fabric and sharp gradients in regional gravity field and in metamorphic grade. The secular TB-side-down normal movement is reflected in deep sedimentary basins, which developed since the Carboniferous to Cenozoic and in topography. The graben morphology of the ER terminates above the “triple junction” of the ST, TB and MD mantle lithospheres. The junction is characterized by offsets of surface boundaries of the tectonic units from their mantle counterparts indicating a detachment of the rigid upper crust from the mantle lithosphere. The southwest continuation of the rift features in Bavaria is expressed in occurrences of Cenozoic sediments and volcanics above an inclined broad transition zone between the ST and MD lithospheres. Schematic scenario of evolution of the region consists mainly of a subduction of the ST lithosphere to depths around 140 km, exhumation of HP-HT rocks and the post-tectonic granitoid plutonism.     

基于小波分解和最小二乘支持向量机的大气臭氧含量时间序列预测

基于小波分解(WT)和最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)理论,建立了将二者相结合的大气臭氧含量时间序列预测模型。采用香河等4个观测站的月平均臭氧总量观测样本,经小波分解为不同频段的子序列,将这些子序列分别进行LSSVM预测,最后经小波重构得到月平均臭氧总量时间序列预测结果。实验表明该方法能有效预测大气臭氧含量,与支持向量机(SVM)以及人工神经网络(ANN)的预测结果相比,该方法具有较高的预测精度。     

Rapid climate change in the Upper Palaeolithic: the record of charcoal conifer rings from the Gravettian site of Dolní Vĕstonice,Czech Republic

Precisely how Upper Palaeolithic human ecology was shaped by changing climate during the Pleniglacial remains a matter of debate, for while this generally cold period is now understood to include complex and often rapid flux in climate, there are still considerable difficulties in resolving climatic variations at particular times and places — derived from various lines of proxy evidence — with the high-resolution proxy record of temperature changes from oxygen isotope analysis of the Greenland ice-cores.In this paper we apply the methodology of large-scale flotation to newly excavated contexts from the Upper Palaeolithic (Gravettian) site of Dolní V?stonice II, Czech Republic, to explore the potential of charcoal — as a natural archive of environmental information — to offer information on environmental change towards the end of the middle pleniglacial during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3, between c. 32,500 and 31,200 Cal yr BP. The results of an analysis of ring widths and other anatomical features — interpreted alongside micromorphological data — indicate that this charcoal may capture a higher-resolution record of the changing climatic conditions during which humans were first expanding into these hitherto marginal ecologies and, consequently, shed new light upon the complexity of the lifeways that enabled them to do so.     

Magnetic susceptibility as a proxy for rainfall: Worldwide data from tropical and temperate climate

The magnetic susceptibility of soils has been linked with climate, mainly through rainfall, by numerous investigators. For this study we assembled a worldwide dataset of 272 samples, both published and new, to determine the nature of the relationship between MS and rainfall. On a worldwide basis there is a crude relationship (r² = 0.265) between MS and rainfall. MS increases with increasing rainfall from about 200 mm/yr to 1000–1200 mm/yr. Above 1200 mm/yr, MS decreases as rainfall increases up to about 2000 mm/yr. Under arid and semi-arid conditions, below about 200 mm/yr of rainfall, MS and rainfall exhibit no relationship, likely the result of limited pedogenic activity.When tropical and temperate localities are analyzed separately, the correlation between MS and rainfall exhibits a dramatic improvement, r² = 0.568 and 0.520, respectively. For similar amounts of rainfall tropical localities generally exhibit lower MS values which may be related to differences in the seasonal variation of rainfall. Because the soil environment is highly variable, it is unlikely that a global or even regional equation could accurately estimate rainfall from MS. Using data from Morocco and Mali we demonstrate that local equations using only MS to estimate rainfall produce reasonable results, r² = 0.700 for Morocco and 0.611 for Mali. However, a single independent variable is unlikely to capture the variability of the complex soil system. To the local equations described above we experimented with adding several independent variables in addition to MS including diffuse reflectance spectral data (DRS), x-ray diffraction (XRD), and x-ray fluorescence (XRF). For DRS data, % reflectance and red, yellow, and near-infrared wavelengths appear important; for XRD illite and kaolinite counts are important whereas for XRF Fe₂O₃ is important. The addition of these other independent variables dramatically improves prediction quality. In the case of the Mali transect, estimating rainfall from these variables produces an r² that exceeds 0.9. Based on these data we conclude that MS has the potential to be a reasonable proxy of rainfall for mean annual precipitation values from 200 to 2000 mm/yr, especially if local equations are used. Predictions can be improved by including other independent variables that show sensitivity to climate and are related to MS through the chemistry of the weathering process; we included DRS, XRD, and XRF data with good results.     

内陆湖泊流域的化学风化及气候变化—以内蒙古岱海为例

利用湖泊沉积物中Rb/Sr值来反映受古气候制约的流域陆地化学风化率的变化，并恢复了岱海近400a以来以小冰期为特征的、具有100a准周期（经谱分析）的气候波动历史。通过磁化率、粘土矿物含量和种类的综合分析，确证了湖泊沉积物Rb/Sr值的变化可以用来重建流域内化学风化率与其相应的古气候演化过程，是湖泊沉积记录中具有比磁化率更明显气候意义的有效代用指标。     

地质灾害危险性评估在某工程建设中的应用

本文通过对工程建设项目的实例分析，研究其在建设和运营过程中遭受地质灾害的危险性，以及工程建设诱发或加剧地质灾害的可能性，进而提出相宜的地质灾害防治对策，以确保工程建设的质量和安全，减少经济损失，保护环境。     

基于GIS和单元簇的模糊逻辑推理及其在区域矿产预测中的应用

论述了 GIS支持下的一种基于“单元簇”概念和模糊逻辑推理的多元地学信息综合分析方法及其在区域矿产预测中的应用。针对以往矿产定量预测中的单元划分方法对空间信息利用不足的问题 ,用单元的空间组合 (“单元簇”)代替单元作为定量类比的基本单位 ,从而能较充分地利用地质变量的局部空间结构信息 ;将单元作为 GIS区图元 ,利用 GIS空间分析功能实现对单元及单元簇的管理和操作 ;建立两个层次即变量对单元和组成单元对单元簇的模糊推理规则 ,经两次模糊推理计算出所有未知单元的找矿有利度 ,为进一步圈定找矿远景区提供了基础 ,并以新疆康古尔塔格地区金矿预测实例说明了其应用效果     

新疆焉耆盆地石油地质特征及成藏模式

本文从焉耆盆地的沉积，构造特征入手，全面阐述了盆地内主要目的层系的生，储，盖，圈等油气形成地质条件，将盆内油气藏划分为7种类型：（1）砂岩上倾尖灭油气藏。（2）断鼻油气藏。（3）断块油气藏。（4）地层油气藏。（5）砂岩透镜体油气藏。（6）断层－岩性油气藏。（7）背斜油气藏，提出了油气的富集规律及成藏分布模式。