北京市能源系统气候变化脆弱性分析与适应建议

1951-2014年,北京市年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速度上升,且热岛效应强度和范围增大。随着北京城市化发展,气候变化给北京市能源系统带来的额外压力也趋于显著。本研究着重分析了气候变化条件下能源系统的脆弱性。研究结果表明,气候变化下北京市能源系统的脆弱性主要表现在高温天气条件下,电力需求负荷超过电力供应系统设计最大负荷;低温条件下,天然气供应短缺;极端天气给能源生产、能源供应和能源运输造成威胁。针对北京市能源系统的脆弱性,借鉴国际经验,提出了北京市能源系统提升气候变化适应能力的短期战略和长期战略,并分别从政策、技术和管理方面提出了短期战略的适应建议。     

Tectonic evolution of a continental magmatic arc from transpression in the upper crust to exhumation of mid-crustal orogenic root recorded by episodically emplaced plutons: the Central Bohemian Plutonic Complex (Bohemian Massif)

The Central Bohemian Plutonic Complex (CBPC) consists of episodically emplaced plutons, the internal fabrics of which recorded tectonic evolution of a continental magmatic arc. The ~354–350 Ma calc-alkaline plutons were emplaced by multiple processes into the upper-crustal Teplá-Barrandian Unit, and their magmatic fabrics recorded increments of regional transpression. Multiple fabrics of the younger, ~346 Ma Blatná pluton recorded both regional transpression and the onset of exhumation of mid-crustal orogenic root (Moldanubian Unit). Continuous exhumation-related deformation during pluton cooling resulted in the development of a wide zone of sub-solidus deformation along the SE margin of the CBPC. Finally, syn-exhumation tabular durbachitic pluton of ultrapotassic composition was emplaced atop the intrusive sequence at ~343–340 Ma, and the ultrapotassic Tábor pluton intruded after exhumation of the orogenic root (~337 Ma). We suggest that the emplacement of plutons during regional transpression in the upper crust produced thermally softened domain which then accommodated the exhumation of the mid-crustal orogenic root, and that the complex nature of the Teplá-Barrandian/Moldanubian boundary is a result of regional transpression in the upper crust, the enhancement of regional deformation in overlapping structural aureoles, the subsequent exhumation of the orogenic root domain, and post-emplacement brittle faulting.     

The formation of runoff-generated debris flow in Southwestern of China: take Gangou as an example

In the mountain area of Southwestern China, there are large quantities of runoff-generated debris flows that are threatening the local people and facilities seriously. Gangou is a typical runoff-generated debris flow; its source is old deposit from floods and the debris flows downstream of the channel. On June 30, 2005, Gangou occurred debris flow, the debris flow destroying the road, the communications facilities and the farmland at the gully mouth. Unlike the formation mechanisms of other debris flows, the formation of 2005 debris flow in Gangou has its distinctive characteristics as follows. (1) The supply of the loose sources is intensive and distribute near the mouth of the gully; it is rare to see any debris flow initiate at such a lower location. (2) The debris flow finishes its initiation, flow and deposition around the 700-m-long channel, accompanied with the blocking process in the gully when the debris flow ran out; however, 10 min later, it releases and amplifies the peak flow about three times. (3) The topographic condition of the basin does not contribute much to the formation of the 2005 debris flow; instead, its formation is the result of the co-effort of continuous rainfall and a short-time heavy rainfall. In other words, the previous cumulative precipitation enables the moisture content of the soil on the right bank of the gully to reach saturation; then the soil slides into the channel under the action of the heavy rainfall at a later time. Meanwhile, the heavy rainfall accelerates the formation of gully run-off and initiates the loose mass in the channel from slide, thus forming the debris flow.     

2002年度天文学科科学基金面上项目评审工作回顾

介绍了2002年度天文学科科学基金申请、资助的基本情况，并对某些结果进行了分析。     

Thermoluminescence Dating of Colluvial Deposits and Its Application to Chronological Study of Paleoearthquakes

On the basis of studies of lithofacies features of colluvial deposits, applicability of thermoluminescence dating of the colluvial deposits at different lithofacies positions, and reliability of the dating result, the thermoluminescent ages of colluvial deposit from different types of faults were determined. From the above, the ages of paleoseismic events and their recurrence intervals on the related fault were deduced.     

多年冻土区钻孔灌注桩基础早期热稳定性研究现状与展望

多年冻土区钻孔灌注桩基础施工带来的热扰动削弱了桩基础的早期热稳定性, 降低了桩基承载力。通过早期热稳定性影响因素、 热稳定性对承载力的影响及其改善措施三个方面对钻孔灌注桩基础早期热稳定性的研究现状进行归纳总结。研究表明： 首先, 多年冻土区钻孔灌注桩基础具有热扰动范围大、 回冻时间长的特点, 其中水化热及胶凝材料、 入模温度、 成孔方式作为主动影响因素是热扰动的主要来源, 桩基特征及冻土工程地质条件作为间接因素也对早期热稳定性产生次要影响; 其次, 钻孔灌注桩热扰动显著降低了桩基早期的承载力, 延缓了上部结构施工时间; 在削弱桩基早期热扰动方面, 人工制冷、 热管等措施具有良好的加速回冻效果。基于桩基承载力与冻土地温的密切关系, 未来还需进一步定量评估冲击钻成孔施工方式、 灌注桩施工季节、 群桩设计参数对桩基早期热扰动的影响, 深入认识早期热扰动作用下桩基承载力的变化规律、 设计荷载与冻土蠕变的关系及其对工期的影响, 并研发施工更加便利、 效果更加显著、 适用范围更广的低水化热胶凝材料和钻孔灌注桩控温措施, 有效提高钻孔灌注桩早期的承载力。     

内蒙古半干旱草原土壤－植被－大气相互作用综合研究

为深化对中纬度半干旱草原气候-生态相互作用过程、机制及其对全球变化的响应与贡献的认识,一项名为“内蒙古半干旱草原土壤-植被-大气相互作用(IMGRASS)”的基金重大项目于1997~2001年在内蒙古锡林郭勒草原执行。IMGRASS计划在1998年草原生长季节在所选定的以典型草原为主,包括草甸草原、稀疏沙地草原等在内的中尺度试验区开展了多点、多要素的综合观测。观测内容包括土壤、植被、大气的相关要素和发生于地-气界面的潜热、感热通量,还包括N2O,CH4,CO2等微量气体交换量、辐射与降水分布。除1998年中尺度观测试验外,1999~2001年在代表性地点进行了微量气体收支、遥感和沙尘天气相关的专项观测,结合草原站已进行的长期监测资料,分析气候-生态长期相互作用,特别是人类活动干预的影响。在分析观测结果的基础上,对该地区的气候-生态相互作用进行了数值模拟研究。文章简要介绍IMGRASS计划目标和初步成果,包括:计划目标与实验区背景;半干旱草原不同地表陆气相互作用特征;浑善达克沙地及其沙尘气溶胶特征;半干旱草原温室气体收支与碳循环测量分析;人类活动干预下半干旱草原生态退化与恢复演替规律;半干旱草原的遥感测量。     

固城湖晚全新世以来的孢粉组合及环境变迁

本文依据固城湖GD钻孔系统的孢粉分析资料,将井深6.3m岩心所做的孢粉图式,结合~(14)C测年,从下面上分为8个孢粉组合带,进而论述了4000年来该区的植被发展和气候的4次冷暖交替的变化。4次冷期约为3.0—2.5KaB.P.2.0—1.5KaB.P.、1.0—0.8KaB.P.和0.4Ka以来。此外,还根据沉积物中的硅藻分析、有机质δ~(13)C值、有机碳含量及历史记载等资料,侧重讨论了气候及人类活动对湖泊环境演变的影响。     

兰州市气温对脑卒中发病的滞后效应研究

通过收集兰州市2010-2013年每日脑卒中发病资料,结合同一时间段的气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与人群脑卒中发病的关联性,分析不同气温和不同滞后天数对脑卒中发病可能的影响。结果表明脑卒中发病与气象因素关系密切,气象因素与脑卒中病例数据的相关分析表明兰州市脑卒中每日发病人数与气温、气压和相对湿度均存在相关性,气温在不同滞后日与脑卒中的关联呈非线性,不同类型脑卒中与气温的关联强度存在差异。对于脑出血患者而言,低温在当天就表现出危害效应,随后发病风险不断增加,滞后2～3 d时达到最大,可持续至低温发生后的第30天。脑梗塞的发病过程与脑出血存在一定差异,高温和低温均会引起发病风险增大,并且气温效应在当天就能发生,在滞后3～5 d内最强。低温对女性或者19～64岁者的影响更大,而高温对≥65岁者的影响更大;低温对不同类型脑卒中发病均有影响,高温仅对缺血性脑卒中发病有影响。气温对不同年龄、性别人群的脑卒中发病影响存在差异,对不同类型的脑卒中发病影响也有所不同。气温是作为外因通过影响机体功能而致人发病的。     

Modeling N2O Emissions from Agricultural Fields in Southeast China

DNDC, a rainfall-driven and process-oriented model of soil carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry, is applied to simulate the nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural ecosystem in Southeast China. We simulated the soil N₂O emission during a whole rice-wheat rotation cycle (from Nov. 1, 1996 to Oct. 31, 1997) under three different conditions, which are A) no fertilizer, B) both chemical fertilizer and manure and, C) chemical fertilizer only. The processes of N₂O emission were discussed in detail by comparing the model outputs with the results from field measurement. The comparison shows that the model is good at simulating most of the N₂O emission pulses and trends. Although the simulated N₂O emission fluxes are generally less than the measured ones, the model outputs during the dryland period, especially during the wheat reviving and maturing stages in spring, are much better than those during the paddy field period. Some sensitive experiments were made by simulating the N₂O emissions in spring, when there is a smallest gap between the simulated fluxes and the measured ones. Meanwhile, the effects of some important regulating factors, such as the rainfall, N deposition by rainfall, temperature, tillage, nitrogen fertilizer and manure application on N₂O emission during this period were analyzed. From the analysis, we draw a conclusion that soil moisture and fertilization are the most important regulating factors while the N₂O emission is sensitive to some other factors, such as temperature, manure, tillage and the wet deposition of atmospheric nitrate.