Bootstrap Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation of Downhole NMR Hydraulic Conductivity Estimates in an Unconsolidated Aquifer

Characterization of hydraulic conductivity (K) in aquifers is critical for evaluation, management, and remediation of groundwater resources. While estimates of K have been traditionally obtained using hydraulic tests over discrete intervals in wells, geophysical measurements are emerging as an alternative way to estimate this parameter. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging, a technology once largely applied to characterization of deep consolidated rock petroleum reservoirs, is beginning to see use in near‐surface unconsolidated aquifers. Using a well‐known rock physics relationship—the Schlumberger Doll Research (SDR) equation—K and porosity can be estimated from NMR water content and relaxation time. Calibration of SDR parameters is necessary for this transformation because NMR relaxation properties are, in part, a function of magnetic mineralization and pore space geometry, which are locally variable quantities. Here, we present a statistically based method for calibrating SDR parameters that establishes a range for the estimated parameters and simultaneously estimates the uncertainty of the resulting K values. We used co‐located logging NMR and direct K measurements in an unconsolidated fluvial aquifer in Lawrence, Kansas, USA to demonstrate that K can be estimated using logging NMR to a similar level of uncertainty as with traditional direct hydraulic measurements in unconsolidated sediments under field conditions. Results of this study provide a benchmark for future calibrations of NMR to obtain K in unconsolidated sediments and suggest a method for evaluating uncertainty in both K and SDR parameter values.     

Evaluating ecosystem-based management options: Effects of trawling in Torres Strait,Australia

A suite of management options for a prawn trawl fishery in Torres Strait, Australia was assessed for impacts on the benthic fauna using a dynamic management strategy evaluation approach. The specification of the management options was gained through consultation with stakeholders. Data for the model was drawn from several sources: the fleet data from fishery logbooks and satellite vessel monitoring systems, benthic depletion rates from trawl-down experiments, benthic recovery rates from post-experiment recovery monitoring studies, and benthic distribution from large-scale benthic surveys. Although there were large uncertainties in the resulting indicators, robust measures relevant to management were obtained by taking ratios relative to the status quo. The management control with the biggest effect was total effort; reducing trawl effort always led to increases in benthic faunal density of up to 10%. Spatial closures had a smaller benefit of up to 2%. The effect of closing a set of buffer zones around reefs to trawling was indistinguishable from the status quo option. Closing a larger area, however, was largely beneficial especially for sea cucumbers. When the spatial distributions of fauna prior to fishing were accounted for, fauna with distributions positively correlated with effort improved relative to those negatively correlated. The reduction in prawn catch under effort reduction scenarios could be ameliorated by introducing temporal closures over the full-moon period.     

On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates

This study diagnoses the climate sensitivity, radiative forcing and climate feedback estimates from eleven general circulation models participating in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and analyzes inter-model differences. This is done by taking into account the fact that the climate response to increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) is not necessarily only mediated by surface temperature changes, but can also result from fast land warming and tropospheric adjustments to the CO₂ radiative forcing. By considering tropospheric adjustments to CO₂ as part of the forcing rather than as feedbacks, and by using the radiative kernels approach, we decompose climate sensitivity estimates in terms of feedbacks and adjustments associated with water vapor, temperature lapse rate, surface albedo and clouds. Cloud adjustment to CO₂ is, with one exception, generally positive, and is associated with a reduced strength of the cloud feedback; the multi-model mean cloud feedback is about 33 % weaker. Non-cloud adjustments associated with temperature, water vapor and albedo seem, however, to be better understood as responses to land surface warming. Separating out the tropospheric adjustments does not significantly affect the spread in climate sensitivity estimates, which primarily results from differing climate feedbacks. About 70 % of the spread stems from the cloud feedback, which remains the major source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, with a large contribution from the tropics. Differences in tropical cloud feedbacks between low-sensitivity and high-sensitivity models occur over a large range of dynamical regimes, but primarily arise from the regimes associated with a predominance of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. The combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback also contributes to the spread of climate sensitivity estimates, with inter-model differences arising primarily from the relative humidity responses throughout the troposphere. Finally, this study points to a substantial role of nonlinearities in the calculation of adjustments and feedbacks for the interpretation of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity estimates. We show that in climate model simulations with large forcing (e.g., 4 × CO₂), nonlinearities cannot be assumed minor nor neglected. Having said that, most results presented here are consistent with a number of previous feedback studies, despite the very different nature of the methodologies and all the uncertainties associated with them.     

A Review of Thunderstorm Trends across Southern Ontario,Canada

Despite their potential impact, trends in thunderstorm occurrence in Canada have not received scientific scrutiny, one of the reasons for this likely being lack of data availability. A previous study showed thunderstorm observations at eight staffed weather stations in southern Ontario, Canada, to be accurate for distances within 10?km. We used hourly thunderstorm data from these stations and one additional station to determine whether a trend exists in the thunderstorm record in this region. A Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen approach determined that although some stations do have trends in number of thunderstorm hours per year over this time, a consistent increase in the number of thunderstorms that might be expected in a warming climate is not seen. Daily precipitation totals and maximum wind gust speeds were also used as proxies for thunderstorm intensity, neither of which confirmed an increase in the intensity of thunderstorms at these sites over the time period.     

Metallurgy at the Crossroads: New Analyses of Copper‐based Objects at Tianshanbeilu,Eastern Xinjiang,China

Tianshanbeilu is the largest Bronze Age site in eastern Xinjiang, China. Stretching across the entire second millennium BC, it performed a prominent role in connecting the Hexi corridor, Central China and the steppe. A further insight into the metallurgical tradition and the metal supply network is of vital importance to improve our understanding of its multi-connected nature. This paper offers a new set of chemical and isotopic data on the copper-based objects at Tianshanbeilu, including alloyi...     

Seasonal and interannual behaviour of groundwater catchment boundaries in a Chalk aquifer

Groundwater catchment boundaries and their associated groundwater catchment areas are typically assumed to be fixed on a seasonal basis. We investigated whether this was true for a highly permeable carbonate aquifer in England, the Berkshire and Marlborough Downs Chalk aquifer, using both borehole hydrograph data and a physics‐based distributed regional groundwater model. Borehole hydrograph data time series were used to construct a monthly interpolated water table surface, from which was then derived a monthly groundwater catchment boundary. Results from field data showed that the mean annual variation in groundwater catchment area was about 20% of the mean groundwater catchment area, but interannual variation can be very large, with the largest estimated catchment size being approximately 80% greater than the smallest. The flow in the river was also dependent on the groundwater catchment area. Model results corroborated those based on field data. These findings have significant implications for issues such as definition of source protection zones, recharge estimates based on water balance calculations and integrated conceptual modelling of surface water and groundwater systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow disappearance timing is dominated by forest effects on snow accumulation in warm winter climates of the Pacific Northwest,United States

Forests modify snow processes and affect snow water storage as well as snow disappearance timing. However, forest influences on snow accumulation and ablation vary with climate and topography and are therefore subject to temporal and spatial variability. We utilize multiple years of snow observations from across the Pacific Northwest, United States, to assess forest–snow interactions in the relatively warm winter conditions characteristic of maritime and transitional maritime–continental climates. We (a) quantify the difference in snow magnitude and disappearance timing between forests and open areas and (b) assess how forest modifications of snow accumulation and ablation combine to determine whether snow disappears later in the forest or in the open. We find that snow disappearance timing at 12 (out of 14) sites ranges from synchronous in the forest and open to snow persisting up to 13 weeks longer in the open relative to a forested area. By analyzing accumulation and ablation rates up to the day when snow first disappears from the forest, we find that the difference between accumulation rates in the open and forest is larger than the difference between ablation rates. Thus, canopy snow interception and subsequent loss, rather than ablation, set up longer snow duration in the open. However, at two relatively windy sites (hourly average wind speeds up to 8 and 17 m/s), differential snow disappearance timing is reversed: Snow persists 2–5 weeks longer in the forest. At the windiest sites, accumulation rates in the forest and open are similar. Ablation rates are higher in the open, but the difference between ablation rates in the forest and open at these sites is approximately equivalent to the difference at less windy sites. Thus, longer snow retention in the forest at the windiest sites is controlled by depositional differences rather than by reduced ablation rates. These findings suggest that improved quantification of forest effects on snow accumulation processes is needed to accurately predict the effect of forest management or natural disturbance on snow water resources.     

Coordinated Observations of Comet Hale–Bopp between 32 and 860 GHz

Earth, Moon, and Planets - The concept of simultaneous multifrequency continuum observations, successfully tested on Comet Hyakutake, was applied to Comet Hale-Bopp, using the Heinrich Hertz...     

Noise in pressure transducer readings produced by variations in solar radiation

Variations in solar radiation can produce noise in readings from gauge pressure transducers when the transducer cable is exposed to direct sunlight. This noise is a result of insolation-induced heating and cooling of the air column in the vent tube of the transducer cable. A controlled experiment was performed to assess the impact of variations in solar radiation on transducer readings. This experiment demonstrated that insolation-induced fluctuations in apparent pressure head can be as large as 0.03 m. The magnitude of these fluctuations is dependent on cable color, the diameter of the vent tube, and the length of the transducer cable. The most effective means of minimizing insolation-induced noise is to use integrated transducer-data logger units that fit within a well. Failure to address this source of noise can introduce considerable uncertainty into analyses of hydraulic tests when the head change is relatively small, as is often the case for tests in highly permeable aquifers or for tests using distant observation wells.