The Forest in the Future: A Response to Seeing the Forest for the Trees

Abstract

In this commentary, we highlight some of the strengths of the bibliometric analysis conducted by Qin et al. that examines the relationships between environmental and natural resource sociologies through citation networks, coauthorship, and keyword usage. We also suggest some ways that the analysis could be expanded or built upon, and ideas for further distinct, but related, inquiry. We also reflect on our own identification, training, and mentoring within the two subfields and draw upon responses from a small purposefully selected sample of other early/mid-career environmental and natural resource sociologists to start a conversation about what the relationship between the two fields might look like in the future.     

Climate influences on water and sediment properties of Genovesa Crater Lake,Galápagos

Genovesa Crater Lake is a remote, hypersaline lake in the northern Galápagos archipelago that contains a finely laminated sediment record. This sediment record has the potential to provide a high-resolution history of past climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific. Here we present modern climate, lake, and sediment observations from 2009 to 2012 to explore how local climate variability influences Genovesa Crater Lake and its sediments. Surface lake temperature is strongly linked to air temperature and is highly seasonal. Temperature stratification is strongest during the warm season, whereas temperature becomes more uniform through the water column in the cool season. Deeper and earlier mixing occurred during the 2010 La Niña, which subsequently delayed 2011 cool season mixing and maximum warm season surface temperatures in 2011 and 2012. Lake salinity changes are influenced by precipitation, evaporation and persistent seawater influx. The largest declines in subsurface salinity follow months after the rainy season, when temperatures cool and fresher surface water from the previous warm/wet season mixes into the subsurface. Between 2009 and 2012, more calcium carbonate precipitated during a period of higher salinity. The period of highest calcium carbonate abundance measured in sediment records that span the late nineteenth to twentieth century coincides with the failure of two consecutive rainy seasons in 1988 and 1989 as well as the coldest monthly sea surface temperature measured at Puerto Ayora in 1989. More calcium carbonate-rich laminae from AD 1550 ± 70 to 1675 ± 90 may indicate a greater frequency of prolonged droughts or cooler temperatures, although enhanced productivity may also modulate carbonate precipitation. More Ca-rich laminae in Genovesa coincide with dry conditions inferred from other Galápagos sediment proxies, as well as prolonged dry and cool conditions inferred from reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index and NINO3 sea surface temperatures.     

New Insights from Well Responses to Fluctuations in Barometric Pressure

Hydrologists have long recognized that changes in barometric pressure can produce changes in water levels in wells. The barometric response function (BRF) has proven to be an effective means to characterize this relationship; we show here how it can also be utilized to glean valuable insights into semi‐confined aquifer systems. The form of the BRF indicates the degree of aquifer confinement, while a comparison of BRFs between wells sheds light on hydrostratigraphic continuity. A new approach for estimating hydraulic properties of aquitards from BRFs has been developed and verified. The BRF is not an invariant characteristic of a well; in unconfined or semi‐confined aquifers, it can change with conditions in the vadose zone. Field data from a long‐term research site demonstrate the hydrostratigraphic insights that can be gained from monitoring water levels and barometric pressure. Such insights should be of value for a wide range of practical applications.     

Organic and inorganic matter in Louisiana coastal waters: Vermilion, Atchafalaya, Terrebonne, Barataria, and Mississippi regions

Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) spectral absorption, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, and the particulate fraction of inorganic (PIM) and organic matter (POM) were measured in Louisiana coastal waters at Vermilion, Atchafalaya, Terrebonne, Barataria, and Mississippi River locations, in 2007-2008. The range of CDOM was 0.092 m⁻¹ at Barataria in June 2008 to 11.225 m⁻¹ at Mississippi in February 2008. An indicator of organic matter quality was predicted by the spectral slope of absorption coefficients from 350 to 412 nm which was between 0.0087 m⁻¹ at Mississippi in May 2008 and 0.0261 m⁻¹ at Barataria in June 2008. CDOM was the dominant component of light attenuation at Terrebonne and Barataria. Detritus and CDOM were the primary components of light attenuation at Vermilion, Atchafalaya, and Mississippi. DOC ranged between 65 and 1235 μM. PIM ranged between 1.1 and 426.3 mg L⁻¹ and POM was between 0.3 and 49.6 mg L⁻¹.     

Contribution of glacier meltwater to streamflow in the Wind River Range,Wyoming, inferred via a Bayesian mixing model applied to isotopic measurements

The Wind River Range (WRR) of Wyoming has the largest concentration of alpine glaciers in the American Rockies and contributes to several major river systems in the western United States. Declines in the areal extent and volume of these glaciers are well documented, and eventual loss of alpine glaciers will reduce the amount of water available for agricultural and domestic use. The contribution of glacial melt to streamflow remains largely unquantified in Wyoming. We used isotope measurements and Bayesian modeling to estimate the fractional contribution of glacier meltwater to Dinwoody Creek (DC) in the WRR on bi‐weekly and seasonal (spring, summer, and fall) time scales over 2 years. In 2007 and 2008, we made temporally intensive measurements of the stable isotope composition of water from the DC watershed. Samples of the primary sources of streamflow (snowmelt, glacier melt, rain, and baseflow) were collected during field campaigns, and automated collection of stream samples occurred over the melt season. Isotope data (D and ¹⁸O) were analyzed within a hierarchical Bayesian framework that incorporated temporal and spatial correlations. Glacial melt contributed a significant proportion (～53–59%) to streamflow in a low‐flow year (2007) or when streamflow was low during a high‐flow year (2008). In 2008, a large and persistent snowpack contributed significantly (～0·42–51%) to streamflow in mid‐summer. The large contribution of glacial melt to streamflow suggests that the loss of glaciers may impact riparian ecosystems and human water supplies in the late summer and in years with low snowpack. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precious metal enrichment in the Platreef,Bushveld Complex,South Africa: evidence from homogenized magmatic sulfide melt inclusions

Magmatic sulfide deposits are the most significant source of platinum-group elements (PGE) in the world. Key to understanding their genesis is determining the processes and timing of sulfide saturation, metal enrichment and crustal contamination. In this study, we have identified droplets of magmatic sulfide from the Platreef, South Africa, where droplets of sulfide have been trapped in the earliest crystallising phase, chromite. Due to their early entrapment at high temperatures, metal concentrations and ratios that they display are indicative of a very early-stage sulfide liquid in the system, as they will have cooled and fractionated within an essentially closed system, unlike interstitial blebs that crystallise in an open system as the magma cools. Analysis of these droplets in an opaque mineral like chromite by LA-ICP-MS is problematic as some of the fractionated inclusion is necessarily lost during cutting and polishing to initially identify the inclusion. This particularly affects the ability to representatively sample the most fractionated phases such as gold and platinum minerals. Here, using a novel technique whereby the inclusions are homogenized and quickly quenched, so that any cutting, polishing and subsequent LA-ICP-MS analysis samples a truly representative portion of the droplet. This has been used to show that early sulfide liquids in the Platreef were highly PGE-rich and had Pt/Pd ratios of close to unity that supports genetic models invoking sulfide saturation and metal enrichment prior to intrusion, with pre-enriched sulfides entrained within the Platreef magma.     

Mercury in the Southern Ocean

We present here the first mercury speciation study in the water column of the Southern Ocean, using a high-resolution south-to-north section (27 stations from 65.50°S to 44.00°S) with up to 15 depths (0-4440 m) between Antarctica and Tasmania (Australia) along the 140°E meridian. In addition, in order to explore the role of sea ice in Hg cycling, a study of mercury speciation in the “snow-sea ice-seawater” continuum was conducted at a coastal site, near the Australian Casey station (66.40°S; 101.14°E). In the open ocean waters, total Hg (Hg_T) concentrations varied from 0.63 to 2.76 pmol L⁻¹ with “transient-type” vertical profiles and a latitudinal distribution suggesting an atmospheric mercury source south of the Southern Polar Front (SPF) and a surface removal north of the Subantartic Front (SAF). Slightly higher mean Hg_T concentrations (1.35 ± 0.39 pmol L⁻¹) were measured in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) compared to Antarctic Intermediate water (AAIW) (1.15 ± 0.22 pmol L⁻¹). Labile Hg (Hg_R) concentrations varied from 0.01 to 2.28 pmol L⁻¹, with a distribution showing that the Hg_T enrichment south of the SPF consisted mainly of Hg_R (67 ± 23%), whereas, in contrast, the percentage was half that in surface waters north of PFZ (33 ± 23%). Methylated mercury species (MeHg_T) concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 0.86 pmol L⁻¹. All vertical MeHg_T profiles exhibited roughly the same pattern, with low concentrations observed in the surface layer and increasing concentrations with depth up to an intermediate depth maximum. As for Hg_T, low mean MeHg_T concentrations were associated with AAIW, and higher ones with AABW. The maximum of MeHg_T concentration at each station was systematically observed within the oxygen minimum zone, with a statistically significant MeHg_Tvs Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationship (p < 0.001). The proportion of Hg_T as methylated species was lower than 5% in the surface waters, around 50% in deep waters below 1000 m, reaching a maximum of 78% south of the SPF. At Casey coastal station Hg_T and Hg_R concentrations found in the “snow-sea ice-seawater” continuum were one order of magnitude higher than those measured in open ocean waters. The distribution of Hg_T there suggests an atmospheric Hg deposition with snow and a fractionation process during sea ice formation, which excludes Hg from the ice with a parallel Hg enrichment of brine, probably concurring with the Hg enrichment of AABW observed in the open ocean waters. Contrastingly, MeHg_T concentrations in the sea ice environment were in the same range as in the open ocean waters, remaining below 0.45 pmol L⁻¹. The MeHg_T vertical profile through the continuum suggests different sources, including atmosphere, seawater and methylation in basal ice. Whereas Hg_T concentrations in the water samples collected between the Antarctic continent and Tasmania are comparable to recent measurements made in the other parts of the World Ocean (e.g., Soerensen et al., 2010), the Hg species distribution suggests distinct features in the Southern Ocean Hg cycle: (i) a net atmospheric Hg deposition on surface water near the ice edge, (ii) the Hg enrichment in brine during sea ice formation, and (iii) a net methylation of Hg south of the SPF.     

The April 2010 North African heatwave: when the water vapor greenhouse effect drives nighttime temperatures

Climate Dynamics - North Africa experienced a severe heatwave in April 2010 with daily maximum temperatures ( $$T_{max}$$ ) frequently exceeding $$40\,^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$$ and daily minimum...     

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS.     

Tree-Ring Analysis And Natural Hazard Chronologies: Minimum Sample Sizes And Index Values*

Tree-ring dating is employed to reconstruct chronologies of occurrence for a variety of natural hazards. The number of trees sampled varies greatly as does the minimum number of tree-ring responses. The number of trees to be sampled and an acceptable tree-ring response index should be dictated by the nature and geographical extent of the specific hazard under study. Repetitive sampling of different numbers of 30 avalanche-damaged trees showed significant differences in number of tree-ring responses over a 55-year-period. More sampling and use of a higher minimum response index allowed greater confidence in the chronology constructed from tree-rings and compared to historical records. Three geographic scales of analysis that can confound tree-ring responses are identified, and three guidelines for choosing sample size, given variations in processes, are suggested.