Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.

     

Phytoplankton, nutrients, and transparency in Danish coastal waters

We present a comparative analysis of 1400 data series of water chemistry (particularly nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations), phytoplankton biomass as chlorophylla (chla) concentrations, concentrations of suspended matter and Secchi depth transparency collected from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s from 162 stations in 27 Danish fjords and coastal waters. The results demonstrate that Danish coastal waters were heavily eutrophied and had high particle concentrations and turbid waters. Median values were 5.1 μg chla 1⁻¹, 10.0 mg DW 1⁻¹ of suspended particles, and Secchi depth of 3.6 m. Chlorophyll concentration was strongly linked to the total-nitrogen concentration. The strength of this relationship increased from spring to summer as the concentration of total nitrogen declined. During summer, total nitrogen concentrations accounted for about 60% of the variability in chlorophyll concentrations among the different coastal systems. The relationship between chlorophyll and total phosphorus was more consistant over the year and correlations were much weaker than encountered for total nitrogen. Secchi depth could be predicted with good precision from measurements of chlorophyll and suspended matter. In a multiple stepwise regression model with In-transformed values the two variables accounted for most of the variability in water transparency for the different seasons and the period March–October as a whole (c. 80%). We were able to demonstrate a significant relationship between total nitrogen and Secchi depth, with important implications for management purposes.     

A chemostratigraphic method to determine the end of impact‐related sedimentation at marine‐target impact craters (Chesapeake Bay,Lockne, Tvären)

Abstract– To better understand the impact cratering process and its environmental consequences at the local to global scale, it is important to know when in the geological record of an impact crater the impact‐related processes cease. In many instances, this occurs with the end of early crater modification, leaving an obvious sedimentological boundary between impactites and secular sediments. However, in marine‐target craters the transition from early crater collapse (i.e., water resurge) to postimpact sedimentation can appear gradual. With the a priori assumption that the reworked target materials of the resurge deposits have a different chemical composition to the secular sediments we use chemostratigraphy (δ¹³C_carb, %C_org, major elements) of sediments from the Chesapeake Bay, Lockne, and Tvären craters, to define this boundary. We show that the end of impact‐related sedimentation in these cases is fairly rapid, and does not necessarily coincide with a visual boundary (e.g., grain size shift). Therefore, in some cases, the boundary is more precisely determined by chemostratigraphy, especially carbonate carbon isotope variations, rather than by visual inspection. It is also shown how chemostratigraphy can confirm the age of marine‐target craters that were previously determined by biostratigraphy; by comparing postimpact carbon isotope trends with established regional trends.     

The Qso Hosts I Zw 1 and 3C 48: Prototypes of a Merger-Driven Quasar Evolution?

I Zw 1 and 3C 48 are two neighboring template objects at a later stage of the hypothesized merger-driven evolutionary sequence from ultra-luminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) to quasi-stellar objects (QSOs). Since galaxy mergers are assumed to trigger the evolution, it is important to confirm the merger properties of transitionary objects. Using multi-wavelength observations and N-body simulations, the merger histories of I Zw 1 and 3C 48 have been investigated in two separate case studies. Here, the results from both studies are compared and their relevance for the evolutionary hypothesis is discussed.This research is partly based on observations with ISAAC at the Very Large Telescope (VLT) of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) under projects 67.B-0009 and 67.B-0019.     

Chemical and isotopic equilibrium between CO2 and CH4 in fumarolic gas discharges: Generation of CH4 in arc magmatic-hydrothermal systems

The chemical and isotopic composition of fumarolic gases emitted from Nisyros Volcano, Greece, and of a single gas sample from Vesuvio, Italy, was investigated in order to determine the origin of methane (CH₄) within two subduction-related magmatic-hydrothermal environments.Apparent temperatures derived from carbon isotope partitioning between CH₄ and CO₂ of around 340°C for Nisyros and 470°C for Vesuvio correlate well with aquifer temperatures as measured directly and/or inferred from compositional data using the H₂O-H₂-CO₂-CO-CH₄ geothermometer. Thermodynamic modeling reveals chemical equilibrium between CH₄, CO₂ and H₂O implying that carbon isotope partitioning between CO₂ and CH₄ in both systems is controlled by aquifer temperature.N₂/³He and CH₄/³He ratios of Nisyros fumarolic gases are unusually low for subduction zone gases and correspond to those of midoceanic ridge environments. Accordingly, CH₄ may have been primarily generated through the reduction of CO₂ by H₂ in the absence of any organic matter following a Fischer-Tropsch-type reaction. However, primary occurrence of minor amounts of thermogenic CH₄ and subsequent re-equilibration with co-existing CO₂ cannot be ruled out entirely. CO₂/³He ratios and δ¹³C_CO2 values imply that the evolved CO₂ either derives from a metasomatized mantle or is a mixture between two components, one outgassing from an unaltered mantle and the other released by thermal breakdown of marine carbonates. The latter may contain traces of organic matter possibly decomposing to CH₄ during thermometamorphism.     

Lander radioscience for obtaining the rotation and orientation of Mars

The paper presents the concept, the objectives, the approach used, and the expected performances and accuracies of a radioscience experiment based on a radio link between the Earth and the surface of Mars. This experiment involves radioscience equipment installed on a lander at the surface of Mars. The experiment with the generic name lander radioscience (LaRa) consists of an X-band transponder that has been designed to obtain, over at least one Martian year, two-way Doppler measurements from the radio link between the ExoMars lander and the Earth (ExoMars is an ESA mission to Mars due to launch in 2013). These Doppler measurements will be used to obtain Mars’ orientation in space and rotation (precession and nutations, and length-of-day variations). More specifically, the relative position of the lander on the surface of Mars with respect to the Earth ground stations allows reconstructing Mars’ time varying orientation and rotation in space.Precession will be determined with an accuracy better by a factor of 4 (better than the 0.1% level) with respect to the present-day accuracy after only a few months at the Martian surface. This precession determination will, in turn, improve the determination of the moment of inertia of the whole planet (mantle plus core) and the radius of the core: for a specific interior composition or even for a range of possible compositions, the core radius is expected to be determined with a precision decreasing to a few tens of kilometers.A fairly precise measurement of variations in the orientation of Mars’ spin axis will enable, in addition to the determination of the moment of inertia of the core, an even better determination of the size of the core via the core resonance in the nutation amplitudes. When the core is liquid, the free core nutation (FCN) resonance induces a change in the nutation amplitudes, with respect to their values for a solid planet, at the percent level in the large semi-annual prograde nutation amplitude and even more (a few percent, a few tens of percent or more, depending on the FCN period) for the retrograde ter-annual nutation amplitude. The resonance amplification depends on the size, moment of inertia, and flattening of the core. For a large core, the amplification can be very large, ensuring the detection of the FCN, and determination of the core moment of inertia.The measurement of variations in Mars’ rotation also determines variations of the angular momentum due to seasonal mass transfer between the atmosphere and ice caps. Observations even for a short period of 180 days at the surface of Mars will decrease the uncertainty by a factor of two with respect to the present knowledge of these quantities (at the 10% level).The ultimate objectives of the proposed experiment are to obtain information on Mars’ interior and on the sublimation/condensation of CO₂ in Mars’ atmosphere. Improved knowledge of the interior will help us to better understand the formation and evolution of Mars. Improved knowledge of the CO₂ sublimation/condensation cycle will enable better understanding of the circulation and dynamics of Mars’ atmosphere.     

Quaternary geology of the Amazonian Lowland

The Quaternary history of the Amazon lowlands is characterized by deposition of sediments of Andean provenance and by the influences of changing sea levels. Areas well above the present water tables were not reached by Pleistocene high-water stages. These areas have been intensively weathered since the Tertiary, forming hard lateritic weathering horizons. These weathering horizons are best explained by the relatively constant, humid tropical climate throughout the Quaternary. In the western Amazonian Lowland, flood plains corresponding to the different Pleistocene sea-level heights were formed. During low sea level, erosion in the drainage areas increased and the water levels of the central Amazon River system were lowered. Valleys drowned and lakes formed in the lower reaches of rivers and creeks during high sea-level stages. These lakes (ria lakes) remained in the valleys with rivers having a low sediment load. Seismic profiling (3.5 kHz) in some of these lakes clearly showed deposits of the three last periods of Quaternary high sea-level stages.