Patterns in the linkage of water quantity and quality during low‐flows

This study investigates 72 catchments across the federal state of Baden‐Wuerttemberg, Germany, for changes in water quality during low‐flow events. Data from the state's water quality monitoring network provided seven water quality parameters (water temperature, electrical conductivity, concentrations of chloride, sodium, sulfate, nitrate, and phosphate), which were statistically related to streamflow variability. Water temperature changes during low‐flow showed seasonal dependence. Nitrate concentrations revealed high spatial heterogeneity with about one third of the stations showing decreasing values during low discharge. For most other parameters, concentrations increased during low‐flow. Despite consistent trend directions, the magnitudes of changes with streamflow differed markedly across the state. Both multiple linear regression and a multiple analysis of variances were applied to explain these differences with the help of catchment characteristics. Results indicated that for sulfate and conductivity, geology of the catchments was the most important control, whereas for chloride, sodium, and nitrate, sewage treatment plants had the largest influence. For phosphate, no clear control could be identified. Independent from the applied method, land use was a less important control on river water quality during low‐flow than geology or inflow from sewage treatment plants. These results show that the effects of diffuse and point sources, as well as those of natural and anthropogenic sources differ for different water quality parameters. Overall, a high diversity of potential water quality deterioration signals needs to be considered when the ecological status of rivers is to be protected during low‐flow events.     

Towards a Validation of Scintillometer Measurements: The LITFASS-2009 Experiment

Scintillometry has been increasingly used over the last decade for the experimental determination of area-averaged turbulent fluxes at a horizontal scale of a few kilometres. Nevertheless, a number of assumptions in the scintillometer data processing and interpretation still call for a thorough evaluation, in particular over heterogeneous terrain. Moreover, a validation of the path-averaged structure parameters derived from scintillometer data (and forming the basis for the flux calculations) by independent measurements is still missing. To achieve this, the LITFASS-2009 field campaign has been performed around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg ?C Richard-A?mann-Observatory of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) in July 2009. The experiment combined tower-based in-situ turbulence measurements, field-scale laser scintillometers, long-range optical (large-aperture) and microwave scintillometers, and airborne turbulence measurements using an automatically operating unmanned aircraft. The paper describes the project design and strategy, and discusses first results. Daytime near-surface values of the temperature structure parameter, ${C_{T}^{2}}$ , over different types of farmland differ by more than one order of magnitude in their dependence on the type and status of the vegetation. Considerable spatial variability in ${C_{T}^{2}}$ was also found along the flight legs at heights between 50 and 100?m. However, it appeared difficult to separate the effects of heterogeneity from the temporal variability of the turbulence fields. Aircraft measurements and scintillometer data agreed in magnitude with respect to the temporal variation of the path-averaged ${C_{T}^{2}}$ values during the diurnal cycle. The decrease of ${C_{T}^{2}}$ with height found from the scintillometer measurements close to the surface and at 43?m under daytime convective conditions corresponds to free-convection scaling, whereas the aircraft measurements at 54 and 83?m suggest a different behaviour.     

Late Pleistocene spread of (cool-)temperate forests in Northeast China and climate changes synchronous with the North Atlantic region

The results presented here from the annually laminated sedimentary sequence of Sihailongwan lake provide the first comprehensive palaeoecological record covering the Late Pleniglacial to the Early Holocene (16,700–10,600 cal yrs. BP) from Northeast China. High-resolution pollen analyses have enabled the vegetational and climatic changes of the last glacial-interglacial transition to be reconstructed in more detail than has been previously possible. Moreover, a reliable chronology has been provided by both varve counting and 40 calibrated AMS ¹⁴C age determinations.Palaeobotanical evidence indicates predominantly steppe and open taiga-like woodland communities, with abundant Betula, Larix, Alnus fruticosa, Artemisia, grasses and sedges, which are typical of cold and dry conditions between 16,700 and 14,450 cal yrs. BP. The beginning expansion of Ulmus and Fraxinus marks the onset of the Late-glacial climatic amelioration at 14,450 cal yrs. BP. Dense deciduous forests, predominantly consisting of thermophilous broadleaf taxa, become established and widespread during the Early Holocene.Two short-term climatic reversals to colder and/or dryer conditions are recorded in the proxy data between 13,900 and 13,800 cal yrs. BP and 13,100 and 12,900 cal yrs. BP, correlating with the Oldest Dryas/Greenland Interstadial (GI) 1d event and the Gerzensee/Killarney/GI-1b oscillation, respectively. The prominent reappearance of Picea and Larix, coupled with a marked decrease in broadleaved trees, prior to the start of the Holocene, implies a climatic reversal compatible with the Younger Dryas event in the circum-Atlantic region. The evident synchroneity of climate changes in the North Atlantic region and East Asia supports the theory of strong atmospheric coupling between both regions.     

Three monthly coral Sr/Ca records from the Chagos Archipelago covering the period of 1950–1995 A.D.: reproducibility and implications for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations

In order to assess the fidelity of coral Sr/Ca for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations, we have generated three monthly Sr/Ca time series from Porites corals from the lagoon of Peros Banhos (71°E, 5°S, Chagos Archipelago). We find that all three coral Sr/Ca time series are well correlated with instrumental records of sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature. However, the intrinsic variance of the single-core Sr/Ca time series differs from core to core, limiting their use for quantitative estimates of past temperature variations. Averaging the single-core data improves the correlation with instrumental temperature (r > 0.7) and allows accurate estimates of interannual temperature variations (~0.35°C or better). All Sr/Ca time series indicate a shift towards warmer temperatures in the mid-1970s, which coincides with the most recent regime shift in the Pacific Ocean. However, the magnitude of the warming inferred from coral Sr/Ca differs from core to core and ranges from 0.26 to 0.75°C. The composite Sr/Ca record from Peros Banhos clearly captures the major climatic signals in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, i.e. the El Niño–southern oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Moreover, composite Sr/Ca is highly correlated with tropical mean temperatures (r = 0.7), suggesting that coral Sr/Ca time series from the tropical Indian Ocean will contribute to multi-proxy reconstructions of tropical mean temperatures.     

Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation evaluated using daily statistics from the PRUDENCE ensemble

An ensemble of regional climate modelling simulations from the European framework project PRUDENCE are compared across European sub-regions with observed daily precipitation from the European Climate Assessment dataset by characterising precipitation in terms of probability density functions (PDFs). Models that robustly describe the observations for the control period (1961–1990) in given regions as well as across regions are identified, based on the overlap of normalised PDFs, and then validated, using a method based on bootstrapping with replacement. We also compare the difference between the scenario period (2071–2100) and the control period precipitation using all available models. By using a metric quantifying the deviation over the entire PDF, we find a clearly marked increase in the contribution to the total precipitation from the more intensive events and a clearly marked decrease for days with light precipitation in the scenario period. This change is tested to be robust and found in all models and in all sub-regions. We find a detectable increase that scales with increased warming, making the increase in the PDF difference a relative indicator of climate change level. Furthermore, the crossover point separating decreasing from increasing contributions to the normalised precipitation spectrum when climate changes does not show any significant change which is in accordance with expectations assuming a simple analytical fit to the precipitation spectrum.     

Observing upper troposphere–lower stratosphere climate with radio occultation data from the CHAMP satellite

High quality observations of the atmosphere are particularly required for monitoring global climate change. Radio occultation (RO) data, using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, are well suited for this challenge. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their long-term stability due to their self-calibrated nature. The German research satellite CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) continuously records RO profiles since August 2001 providing the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies for a multi-year period of more than 5 years. A period of missing CHAMP data from July 3, 2006 to August 8, 2006 can be bridged with RO data from the GRACE satellite (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We have built seasonal and zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric (dry) temperature, microwave refractivity, geopotential height and pressure with 10° latitudinal resolution. We show representative results with focus on dry temperatures and compare them with analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although we have available only about 150 CHAMP profiles per day (compared to millions of data entering the ECMWF analyses) the overall agreement between 8 and 30 km altitude is in general very good with systematic differences <0.5 K in most parts of the domain. Pronounced systematic differences (exceeding 2 K) in the tropical tropopause region and above Antarctica in southern winter can almost entirely be attributed to errors in the ECMWF analyses. Errors resulting from uneven sampling in space and time are a potential error source for single-satellite climatologies. The average CHAMP sampling error for seasonal zonal means is <0.2 K, higher values occur in restricted regions and time intervals which can be clearly identified by the sampling error estimation approach we introduced (which is based on ECMWF analysis fields). The total error of this new type of temperature climatologies is estimated to be <0.5 K below 30 km. The recently launched Taiwan/U.S. FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC constellation of 6 RO satellites started to provide thousands of RO profiles per day, but already now the single-satellite CHAMP RO climatologies improve upon modern operational climatologies in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere and can act as absolute reference climatologies for validation of more bias-sensitive climate datasets and models.     

Particle tracking in the vicinity of Helgoland,North Sea: a model comparison

Station Helgoland Roads in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight) hosts one of the richest long-term time series of marine observations. Hydrodynamic transport simulations can help understand variability in the local data brought about by intermittent changes of water masses. The objective of our study is to estimate to which extent the outcome of such transport simulations depends on the choice of a specific hydrodynamic model. Our basic experiment consists of 3,377 Lagrangian simulations in time-reversed mode initialized every 7 h within the period Feb 2002–Oct 2004. Fifty-day backward simulations were performed based on hourly current fields from four different hydrodynamic models that are all well established but differ with regard to spatial resolution, dimensionality (2D or 3D), the origin of atmospheric forcing data, treatment of boundary conditions, presence or absence of baroclinic terms, and the numerical scheme. The particle-tracking algorithm is 2D; fields from 3D models were averaged vertically. Drift simulations were evaluated quantitatively in terms of the fraction of released particles that crossed each cell of a network of receptor regions centred at the island of Helgoland. We found substantial systematic differences between drift simulations based on each of the four hydrodynamic models. Sensitivity studies with regard to spatial resolution and the effects of baroclinic processes suggest that differences in model output cannot unambiguously be assigned to certain model properties or restrictions. Therefore, multi-model simulations are needed for a proper identification of uncertainties in long-term Lagrangian drift simulations.     

Age structure and recharge conditions of a coastal aquifer (northern Germany) investigated with 39Ar, 14C, 3H, He isotopes and Ne

A tide-influenced two-layer aquifer system in northern Germany was investigated using environmental dating tracers (³H, ³⁹Ar, ¹⁴C), the noble gas isotopes ³He, ⁴He and Ne. The study area is a marshland at the River Ems estuary, exposed to regular flooding until?AD 1000. The construction of dykes, artificial land drainage and groundwater abstraction define the hydraulic gradient. The aquifer depicts a pronounced age stratification with depth. Tritium concentrations above 0.03 TU are found only in the top 30?m. Two tritium-free samples between 20 and 30?m depth show ³⁹Ar ages of 130 and 250?years. Below a clay layer?Cabout 50?m below surface level (mbsl)?Call analysed samples are ³⁹Ar free and, thus, older than 900?years. The initial ¹⁴C activities were about 70 pmC. Resulting ¹⁴C ages increase with depth and increase up to 9,000?years, in agreement with minimal ³⁹Ar ages. Concentrations of radiogenic ⁴He correlate with ¹⁴C ages. Samples in a mid-depth range (20?C70 mbsl) show significant gas loss. The gas loss is assigned to recharge in a methane producing environment. Deduced ⁴He ages were used to assign this water to a infiltration period of about AD 1000.