Possible Impacts of Global Warming on the Hydrology of the Ogallala Aquifer Region

The Ogallala or High Plains aquifer provides water for about 20% of the irrigated land in the United States. About 20 km³ (16.6 million acre-feet) of water are withdrawn annually from this aquifer. In general, recharge has not compensated for withdrawals since major irrigation development began in this region in the 1940s. The mining of the Ogallala has been pictured as an analogue to climate change in that many GCMs predict a warmer and drier future for this region. In this paper we attempt to anticipate the possible impacts of climate change on the sustainability of the aquifer as a source of water for irrigation and other purposes in the region. We have applied HUMUS, the Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. to the Missouri and Arkansas-White-Red water resource regions that overlie the Ogallala. We have imposed three general circulation model (GISS, UKTR and BMRC) projections of future climate change on this region and simulated the changes that may be induced in water yields (runoff plus lateral flow) and ground water recharge. Each GCM was applied to HUMUS at three levels of global mean temperature (GMT) to represent increasing severity of climate change (a surrogate for time). HUMUS was also run at three levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentration (hereafter denoted by [CO₂]) in order to estimate the impacts of direct CO₂ effects on photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. Since the UKTR and GISS GCMs project increased precipitation in the Missouri basin, water yields increase there. The BMRC GCM predicts sharply decreased precipitation and, hence, reduced water yields. Precipitation reductions are even greater in the Arkansas basin under BMRC as are the consequent water yield losses. GISS and UKTR climates lead to only moderate yield losses in the Arkansas. CO₂-fertilization reverses these losses and yields increase slightly. CO₂ fertilization increases recharge in the base (no climate change) case in both basins. Recharge is reduced under all three GCMs and severities of climate change.     

Infrasonic tracking of large bubble bursts and ash venting at Erebus Volcano,Antarctica

Explosive degassing at Erebus Volcano produces infrasound that can be used to locate, characterize, and quantify eruptive activity from multiple vents. We use a three element distributed microphone network to pinpoint eruption sources and track the activity at the prominent vents through time. Eruptive mechanisms for both source types are analyzed in conjunction with the telemetered time-synced video imagery. We identify two commonly active vents corresponding to the large (often > 10-m diameter) bubble bursts at the free surface of a persistent phonolitic lava lake (‘Ray Lake’), and the less frequent ash-rich eruptions from a constricted vent (‘Active Vent’) located ∼ 80 m from the lava lake. During a 3-month study interval from 6 January to 13 April 2006 we identified and mapped more than 350 eruptive sources from the lava lake and 20 sources from the ash vent. Lava lake events are characterized by high-amplitude infrasonic transients that reflect rapid (less than a few s) acceleration and rupture of magma bubble films followed by an explosion of pressurized gases. Precise infrasonic localization of the lava lake events to accuracies of a few m indicates variable bubble source locations across a 40 by 50-m region spanning the lava lake. Spatial variability is corroborated by the video data. In contrast, degassing from the ash vent produces longer-duration (tens of s), lower amplitude transients that reflect diminished impulsivity and an extended degassing duration, features that are corroborated by video. Because infrasound networks can operate continuously in all weather conditions and during both diurnal and seasonal polar darkness, and are easily incorporated into automatic processing, they significantly contribute to the completeness and quantification of eruption catalogues for Erebus.     

Mechanisms of lateral and linear extension of gullies (dongas) in a subhumid grassland of South Africa

The formation of deep gullies (called ‘dongas’ locally) in rangeland in KwaZulu-Natal Province in South Africa is a natural phenomenon. These U-shaped, very wide gullies have considerable lateral expansion due to the episodic collapse of sidewalls. The dongas have developed in duplex soils such as Luvisols and Lixisols formed on Permian sedimentary rocks or unconsolidated Quaternary colluvium. This study combined morphological, mineralogical and chemical characterization with measurements of grain-size content, structural stability and the complete shrinkage curve to detect changes in soil properties of the different horizons located in the gully banks. The different soil horizons present clear and sharp differences in physical and mineralogical properties. The topsoil with complete grass cover is very resistant to soil detachment. However, the leached E horizon and the BC horizon have low structural stability. The soil profile down to and including the Bt horizon contains exclusively illite in the clay fraction, while the BC colluvial layer and the C horizon (mudstone) contain expandable interstratified illite–smectite. The Bt horizon has a high water content at saturation and high shrinkage, while the BC and C horizons have a high residual shrinkage and a very low water content at saturation. Because this type of gully expansion is not significantly linked to slope value or the stream power index (SPI) at the gully head, to land-use change, high rainfall intensities or the threshold of concentrated runoff being exceeded at the gully head, other causes were investigated. It was concluded that the heterogeneity between horizons with different mineralogical properties and structural stabilities, soil types and parent material, anisotropic water-saturation and shrink-swell properties are of major importance. This heterogeneity between different soil horizon morphologies and their physical properties can explain why the relationship between the critical slope and the drainage area for gully initiation showed a threshold for gullying much lower than that found elsewhere. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Representation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Over Low-Latitude Oceans in (Re-)analysis: Errors,Impacts, and the Ability to Exploit Current and Prospective Observations

This paper addresses the representation of lower tropospheric water vapor in the meteorological analyses—fully detailed estimates of atmospheric state—providing the wide temporal and spatial coverage used in many process studies. Analyses are produced in a cycle combining short forecasts from initial conditions with data assimilation that optimally estimates the state of the atmosphere from the previous forecasts and new observations, providing initial conditions for the next set of forecasts. Estimates of water vapor are among the less certain aspects of the state because the quantity poses special challenges for data assimilation while being particularly sensitive to the details of model parameterizations. Over remote tropical oceans observations of water vapor come from two sources: passive observations at microwave or infrared wavelengths that provide relatively strong constraints over large areas on column-integrated moisture but relatively coarse vertical resolution, and occultations of Global Positioning System provide much higher accuracy and vertical resolution but are relatively spatially coarse. Over low-latitude oceans, experiences with two systems suggest that current analyses reproduce much of the large-scale variability in integrated water vapor but have systematic errors in the representation of the boundary layer with compensating errors in the free troposphere; these errors introduce errors of order 10% in radiative heating rates through the free troposphere. New observations, such as might be obtained by future observing systems, improve the estimates of water vapor but this improvement is lost relatively quickly, suggesting that exploiting better observations will require targeted improvements to global forecast models.     

Benefiting from the regional problem: The politics of 60 years of regional development

The New Zealand government approach to regional development and the economy more broadly has oscillated from the 1970s economic growth and investment focus to 1980s neoliberal neglect, followed by the more recent rediscovery of the regions' importance in national economies, all with tenuous outcomes. This paper explores the changing scope of regional development initiatives by successive New Zealand governments over the last 60 years to show a pattern of opportunism and neglect that suggests regional development is more aligned to electoral priorities than regional success.     

The Meteoritical Bulletin,No. 106

Meteoritical Bulletin 106 contains 1868 meteorites including 10 falls (Aiquile, Broek in Waterland, Degtevo, Dingle Dell, Dishchii'bikoh, Hradec Králové, Kheneg Ljouâd, Oudiyat Sbaa, Serra Pelada, Tres Irmaos), with 1386 ordinary chondrites, 166 carbonaceous chondrites, 119 HED achondrites, 48 Lunar meteorites, 37 iron meteorites, 36 ureilites, 19 Martian meteorites, 13 enstatite chondrites, 12 Rumuruti chondrites, 9 primitive achondrites, 8 mesosiderites, 5 enstatite achondrites, 4 ungrouped achondrites, 4 pallasites, and 1 relict meteorite. A total of 958 meteorites are from Africa, 405 from Antarctica, 245 from Asia, 228 from South America, 12 from North America, 8 from Europe, 5 from Mars, 4 from Oceania, and 1 from an unknown location.     

The Meteoritical Bulletin,No. 104

Meteoritical Bulletin 104 contains 2279 meteorites including 12 falls (Annama, Cartersville, Creston, Diepenveen, Famenin, Izarzar, Nkayi, Porangaba, San Juan de Ocotán, Trâpe?ng Rôno?s, Xinglongquan, ?d’ár nad Sázavou), with 1847 ordinary chondrites, 138 carbonaceous chondrites, 128 HED achondrites, 38 lunar meteorites, 24 ureilites, 22 Martian meteorites, 19 iron meteorites, 17 primitive achondrites, 14 enstatite chondrites, 10 mesosiderites, 9 Rumuruti chondrites, 5 pallasites, 4 ungrouped achondrites, 2 enstatite achondrites, 1 ungrouped chondrite, and 1 Kakangari chondrite, and with 996 from Antarctica, 790 from Africa, 337 from Asia, 111 from South America, 30 from North America, 11 from Oceania, and 4 from Europe. Note: 1 meteorite from Russia was counted as European.     

An application of Boussinesq modeling to Hurricane wave overtopping and inundation

Wave and combined wave-and-surge overtopping was significant across a large portion of the hurricane protection system of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. In particular, along the east-facing levees of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO), the overtopping caused numerous levee breaches. This paper will focus on the MRGO levees, and will attempt to recreate the hydrodynamic conditions during Katrina to provide an estimate of the experienced overtopping rates. Due to the irregular beach profiles leading up to the levees and the general hydrodynamic complexity of the overtopping in this area, a Boussinesq wave model is employed. This model is shown to be accurate for the prediction of waves shoaling and breaking over irregular beach profiles, as well as for the overtopping of levees. With surge levels provided by ADCIRC and nearshore wave heights by STWAVE, the Boussinesq model is used to predict conditions at the MRGO levees for 10 h near the peak of Katrina. The peak simulated overtopping rates correlate well with expected levee damage thresholds and observations of damage in the levee system. Finally, the predicted overtopping rates are utilized to estimate a volumetric flooding rate as a function of time for the entire 20 km stretch of east-facing MRGO levees.     

Three-dimensional structure of inclined sheet swarms: Implications for crustal thickening and subsidence in the volcanic rift zones of Iceland

Inward-dipping (cone) sheet swarms and an associated central volcano are well-exposed in the deeply-eroded Tertiary crust of Vatnsdalur, Skagi Peninsula region, northern Iceland. Spatially registered orientations of 389 mafic sheets, mapped in three distinct sheet swarms define both the overall shape and magmatic source of each swarm. The Vatnsdalur sheet swarms consist of planar inward-dipping sheets that collectively define a conical shape rather than a bowl- or trumpet-shape as have been found in swarms in other locations. In the best exposed swarm, three-dimensional projection of mafic sheets into the subsurface defines two distinct foci, which are interpreted as the magmatic sources of two temporally distinct sub-swarms. These results help to establish the influence of inclined sheet intrusion on crustal accretion at central volcanoes. The geometry of the swarm constrains the thickness of material that was added to the crust during sheet intrusion. When combined with estimates of surface relief, we calculate that 2.2 to 4.1 km of subsidence were required beneath the central volcano in order to accommodate the intrusion of the sheet swarm. Similar processes of crustal thickening and subsidence likely occur in a wide variety of both continental rift and mid-ocean ridge systems where magmatic activity is focused at central volcanoes.