Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

Ries crater and suevite revisited—Observations and modeling Part I: Observations

We report results of an interdisciplinary project devoted to the 26 km‐diameter Ries crater and to the genesis of suevite. Recent laboratory analyses of “crater suevite” occurring within the central crater basin and of “outer suevite” on top of the continuous ejecta blanket, as well as data accumulated during the past 50 years, are interpreted within the boundary conditions imposed by a comprehensive new effort to model the crater formation and its ejecta deposits by computer code calculations (Artemieva et al. 2013). The properties of suevite are considered on all scales from megascopic to submicroscopic in the context of its geological setting. In a new approach, we reconstruct the minimum/maximum volumes of all allochthonous impact formations (108/116 km³), of suevite (14/22 km³), and the total volume of impact melt (4.9/8.0 km³) produced by the Ries impact event prior to erosion. These volumes are reasonably compatible with corresponding values obtained by numerical modeling. Taking all data on modal composition, texture, chemistry, and shock metamorphism of suevite, and the results of modeling into account, we arrive at a new empirical model implying five main consecutive phases of crater formation and ejecta emplacement. Numerical modeling indicates that only a very small fraction of suevite can be derived from the “primary ejecta plume,” which is possibly represented by the fine‐grained basal layer of outer suevite. The main mass of suevite was deposited from a “secondary plume” induced by an explosive reaction (“fuel‐coolant interaction”) of impact melt with water and volatile‐rich sedimentary rocks within a clast‐laden temporary melt pool. Both melt pool and plume appear to be heterogeneous in space and time. Outer suevite appears to be derived from an early formed, melt‐rich and clast‐poor plume region rich in strongly shocked components (melt ? clasts) and originating from an upper, more marginal zone of the melt pool. Crater suevite is obviously deposited from later formed, clast‐rich and melt‐poor plumes dominated by unshocked and weakly shocked clasts and derived from a deeper, central zone of the melt pool. Genetically, we distinguish between “primary suevite” which includes dike suevite, the lower sublayer of crater suevite, and possibly a basal layer of outer suevite, and “secondary suevite” represented by the massive upper sublayer of crater suevite and the main mass of outer suevite.     

Experimental study of the fine structure of the wind field near a rough surface

The air-flow velocity field near the water surface is studied in the zone of wind-wave intensification. Caused by a periodic separation of eddies, a nonzero time-averaged value of the wind velocity in the near-water streamline is detected at the leading slope of the wave. The distribution of pressure along the wave with allowance for the vertical velocity shear and disturbances produced by eddies and a periodic deceleration of the viscous layer was calculated with the aid of the Cauchy-Lagrange integral. This procedure made it possible to calculate the growth rate of the wave amplitude, whose value was found to be close to its experimental value at the initial stage of acceleration.     

Tectonic and sedimentary history of a late Cenozoic intramontane basin (The Pitalito Basin, Colombia)

Abstract The Pitaiito Basin is an intramontane basin (15 × 20 km²) situated at the junction of the Central and Eastern Cordillera in the southern part of the Colombian Andes. Tectonic structures, evolution of the basin and distribution of the sediments suggest that the basin was formed adjacent to an active dextral strike-slip fault. Based on sedimentation rates it is estimated that subsidence started around 4.5 Ma. The basin can be divided into a relatively shallow western part (c. 300 m deep) and a deep eastern part (c. 1200 m deep). The transition between both areas is sharp and is delineated by a NW/SE-oriented fault. The position of this fault is reflected by the areal distribution of the deep non-exposed sediments as well as sediments at the surface: west of this fault the basin infill consists of coarse to medium elastics (conglomerates and sand) whereas in the eastern part fine elastics (clay and peat) are present. The lateral transition between both types of sediment is abrupt and its position is stable in time. The surface and near surface sediments in the Pitalito Basin reflect the last stage of sedimentary infill which came to a halt between 17,000 and 7500 years bp . These sediments were deposited by an eastward prograding fluvial system. The western upstream part of this system differs significantly from that of the eastern part which forms the downstream continuation. The western part exhibits unstable, shallow fluvial channels that wandered freely over the surface which predominantly consists of clayey overbank sediments. The alluvial architecture in the eastern half is characterized by stable channels and thick accumulations of organic-rich flood basin sediments and resembles an anastomosing river. The transition between both alluvial systems also coincides with the N/S-oriented normal fault. Palaeoclimatic conditions over the last c. 61,500 years were determined by means of a pollen record. From c. 61,500 to 20,000 years BP the mean annual temperature fluctuated considerably and decreased by 2–3^oC during the relatively warm periods (interstadials) and by 6–8^oC during the cold periods (stadials) in comparison with modern temperatures. These changes led to a displacement of the zonal vegetation belts from c. 200 m during the stadials to c. 1500 m in interstadial times without significant effects on the fluvial system present in the Pitaiito Basin until c. 20,000 years BP. Around this period the organic-rich eastern flood basins were choked with sediments and peat growth came to an end. Palynological and sedimentological data suggest that around that period the climate was cold (Δ 6–8^oC) and very dry and that a sparse vegetation cover was present around the basin. In these semi-arid climatic conditions the river system changed from an anastomosing pattern to one with ephemeral stream characteristics. This may have lasted until at least 17,000 years BP. Somewhere between 17,000 and 7500 years BP the eastward-flowing infilling river system changed into a NW-flowing erosive river system due to climatic or tectonic control and the present state was reached.     

Effects of onshore and offshore topography on sea breeze circulation: An observational study at eastern Attica,Greece

Field measurements of wind, air temperature and humidity were taken at the eastern part of the Attika district in June 1991, to examine the topographic influences exerted on the local sea breezes. These influences are due either to the elongated Evia island, faced by the northern half of Attica coastline some tens of kilometers offshore, or to the coast-parallel range of Hymettos mountain, rising steeply 12 km onshore. The instrumentation consisted mainly of three tethered meteorological balloons released at characteristic sires (i.e., the coast, a location between shoreline and mountain foot and the mountain top) and three autographic ground-based anemometers operating at selected locations. Data from the ground-based and upper air stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, as well as the diurnal weather maps were also obtained and analyzed. Observations were made under different synoptic wind and the latter was found to determine remarkably the significance of the topographic effects. A preliminary two-dimensional numerical approach was also made concerning the sea breeze capability to reach the Hymettos mountain top in the case of a weak opposing geostrophic flow.     

Evaluation of toxicity in tributaries of the Mersey estuary using the isopod Asellus aquaticus (L.)

Increasing numbers of industrial, agricultural and natural chemicals are present in sewage effluent and are known to elicit toxic effects in laboratory exposures, but little is known of their combined sub-lethal effect in the field. In this study, a combination of esterase activity and ventilation rate assays was performed to determine the neurological and physiological function of the freshwater crustacean Asellus aquaticus (L.) at sites above and below a sewage treatment works (STW). Cholinesterase and carboxylesterase activities were significantly inhibited (n=8, P<0.05) and ventilation rates increased (n=8, P=0.0001) in A. aquaticus at STW sites compared to those from reference sites, indicating a decrease in neurological and physiological function. The ecological relevance of these findings for the population dynamics of the organisms in the field is discussed.     

High spatial and temporal resolution observations of an impulse-driven field line resonance in radar backscatter artificially generated with the Tromsø heater

The CUTLASS Finland HF radar has been operated in conjunction with the EISCAT Tromsø RF ionospheric heater facility to examine a ULF wave characteristic of the development of a field line resonance (FLR) driven by a cavity mode caused by a magnetospheric impulse. When the heater is on, striating the ionosphere with field-aligned ionospheric electron density irregularities, a large enough radar target is generated to allow post-integration over only 1 second. When combined with 15 km range gates, this gives radar measurements of a naturally occurring ULF wave at a far better temporal and spatial resolution than has been achieved previously. The time-dependent signature of the ULF wave has been examined as it evolves from a large-scale cavity resonance, through a transient where the wave period was latitude-dependent and the oscillation had the characteristics of freely ringing field lines, and finally to a very narrow, small-scale local field line resonance. The resonance width of the FLR is only 60 km and this is compared with previous observations and theory. The FLR wave signature is strongly attenuated in the ground magnetometer data. The characterisation of the impulse driven FLR was only achieved very crudely with the ground magnetometer data and, in fact, an accurate determination of the properties of the cavity and field line resonant systems challenges the currently available limitations of ionospheric radar techniques. The combination of the latest ionospheric radars and facilities such as the Tromsø ionospheric heater can result in a powerful new tool for geophysical research.