Effects of Non-orographic Gravity Wave Drag on Seasonal and Medium-range Predictions in a Global Forecast Model

This study implements the parameterizations of convective and frontal gravity wave drag (GWD) with wide phase speed spectra into a global forecast model with a model top near 0.3 hPa. The new convective GWD scheme replaces the existing one that considers only a stationary convective GW, and the frontal GWD scheme is newly introduced. When the new GWD schemes are used, the Rayleigh friction, applied above 2 hPa to mimic the effects of missing GWD, is removed. The convective (frontal) GWs are generated mainly in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and winter extratropical storm track regions (extratropics where strong baroclinicity exists). The convective and frontal GWD derived from the new schemes are significant near the model top, with maxima of ~2-4 and ~26-58 m s^?1 day^?1, respectively. The differences in convective GWD between the stationary and non-stationary schemes appear mainly in the tropics and summer hemisphere, where stationary GWs cannot propagate upward. The new schemes improve the seasonal representation of stratospheric wind, through changes in both the GWD and the resolved wave forcing, which is modulated by the changed large-scale wind due to the GWD. The downward influence, in response to the changed GWD, is also positive in the tropospheric fields, such as subtropical jet and planetary-scale disturbances. For the medium-range forecasts, improved skill scores on wind speed are achieved globally with the new schemes. The improvements mostly appear only in the stratosphere during the early forecast period (~3 days) but expand to the troposphere as forecast time increases.     

Perturbation of regional ocean tides due to coastal dikes

The tidal regime modeling system for ocean tides in the seas bordering the Korean Peninsula is designed to cover an area that is broad in scope and size, yet provide a high degree of resolution in coastal development areas, including the Saemangeum area in the eastern Yellow Sea and the Ariake Sea in Japan, where serious environmental problems have occurred after the completion of interior tidal dikes. With this simulation system, we have estimated the changes in tidal regime due to barriers at Saemangeum and Isahaya Bay in the Ariake Sea. Some results in terms of perturbations in tidal elevations due to the construction of coastal dikes are presented and discussed.     

Interbasin freshwater,heat and salt transport through the boundaries of the East and South China Seas from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

It has long been recognized that the circulation in the East China Sea (ECS) and Japan/East Sea (JES) is closely related with that in Pacific, especially with the Kuroshio (e.g., Nitani[1], Hi-daka[2]). Based on current measurements in the Taiwan Strait a…     

Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific using teleconnection patterns

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model for the seasonal prediction of the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) in the western North Pacific using the three teleconnection patterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian High Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the North Pacific Oscillation in the North Pacific, and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) near the Australia during the boreal spring (April–May). This statistical model is verified through the two analyses: (a) statistical method of cross validation and (b) differences between the high TCGF years and low TCGF years that is hindcasted by the statistical model. The high TCGF years are characterized by the following anomalous features: Three anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in the East Asian continent, pressure pattern like “north-high and south-low” in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (negative AAO phase) near the Australia were strengthened during the period from boreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened by anomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. In consequence, this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP but strengthened convection in the SWP.     

Seasonal reversal at Miryang Eoreumgol (Ice Valley), Korea: observation and monitoring

Climate change information required for impact studies is of a much finer scale than that provided by Global circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents an application of partial least squares (PLS) regression for downscaling GCMs output. Statistical downscaling models were developed using PLS regression for simultaneous downscaling of mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (T _max and T _min) as well as pan evaporation to lake-basin scale in an arid region in India. The data used for evaluation were extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for the period 1948?C2000 and the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT for the period 2001?C2100. A simple multiplicative shift was used for correcting predictand values. The results demonstrated that the downscaling method was able to capture the relationship between the premises and the response. The analysis of downscaling models reveals that (1) the correlation coefficient for downscaled versus observed mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, and pan evaporation was 0.94, 0.96, and 0.89, respectively; (2) an increasing trend is observed for T _max and T _min for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT scenario; and (3) there was no trend observed in pan evaporation. In COMMIT scenario, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are held at year 2000 levels. Furthermore, a comparison with neural network technique shows the efficiency of PLS regression method.     

晚第四纪朝鲜西海岸京畿湾金浦潮坪大型潮汐的演化

金浦潮坪位于京畿湾中部,在1980年开垦改造之前是坡度平缓的潮坪,西边被南北向主水道所限,该水道是汉江的主要支流水道之一,形状长直,最宽处1．5km,最深10m。树枝状的小潮流跟主水道连接。数十个岛屿分布于再生潮坪,导致岩基地形崎岖不平。而位于潮坪西部离岸的大量岛屿起到了保护潮坪不受离岸波浪侵蚀的作用。京畿湾中部的潮流在近地点高潮期达到10m,最大流速超过2．5m／s。波浪一般夏季小,台风期间除外;冬季风暴频繁之时规模巨大,一般超过2m。主潮道的悬浮沉积物浓度和盐度由于强烈的季风气候而表现出显著的季节性差异。     

The evolving flow of Jupiter’s White Ovals and adjacent cyclones

We present results regarding the dynamical meteorology of Jupiter’s White Ovals at different points in their evolution. Starting from the era with three White Ovals FA, BC, and DE (Galileo), continuing to the post-merger epoch with only one Oval BA (Cassini), and finally to Oval BA’s current reddened state (New Horizons), we demonstrate that the dynamics of their flow have similarly evolved along with their appearance. In the Galileo epoch, Oval DE had an elliptical shape with peak zonal wind speeds of ∼90 m s⁻¹ in both its northern and southern peripheries. During the post-merger epoch, Oval BA’s shape was more triangular and less elliptical than Oval DE; in addition to widening in the north-south direction, its northern periphery was 20 m s⁻¹ slower, and its southern periphery was 20 m s⁻¹ faster than Oval DE’s flow during the Galileo era. Finally, in the New Horizons era, the reddened Oval BA had evolved back to a classical elliptical form. The northern periphery of Oval BA increased in speed by 20 m s⁻¹ from Cassini to New Horizons, ending up at a speed nearly identical to that of the northern periphery of Oval DE during Galileo. However, the peak speeds along the southern rim of the newly formed Oval BA were consistently faster than the corresponding speeds in Oval DE, and they increased still further between Cassini and New Horizons, ending up at ∼140-150 m s⁻¹. Relative vorticity maps of Oval BA reveal a cyclonic ring surrounding its outer periphery, similar to the ring present around the Great Red Spot. The cyclonic ring around Oval BA in 2007 appears to be moderately stronger than observed in 1997 and 2001, suggesting that this may be associated with the coloration of the vortex. The modest strengthening of the winds in Oval BA, the appearance of red aerosols, and the appearance of a turbulent, cyclonic feature to Oval BA’s northwest create a strong resemblance with the Great Red Spot from both a dynamical and morphological perspective.In addition to the White Ovals, we also measure the winds within two compact cyclonic regions, one in the Galileo data set and one in the Cassini data set. In the images, these cyclonic features appear turbulent and filamentary, but our wind field reveals that the flow manifests as a coherent high-speed collar surrounding relatively quiescent interiors. Our relative vorticity maps show that the vorticity likewise concentrates in a collar near the outermost periphery, unlike the White Ovals which have peak relative vorticity magnitudes near the center of the vortex. The cyclones contain several localized bright regions consistent with the characteristics of thunderstorms identified in other studies. Although less studied than their anticyclonic cousins, these cyclones may offer crucial insights into the planet’s cloud-level energetics and dynamical meteorology.     

On the numerical integration of a randomly forced system: variation and feedback estimation

Simulated climate variables in a simple energy balance model subject to linearly increasing external forcing (due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions) and random internal forcings have been studied for more accurate climate prediction. The numerical method for such a system requires careful treatment of random forcings. Mathematical analyses show that the effect of random forcings should be diminished in the numerical integration method by the reciprocal of the root of the integration time step $ \left( {1/\sqrt {{\Delta t}} } \right) $ , which we call an attenuator. Our simulations consistently show that the attenuator desirably reduces variances of simulated climate variables and eliminates overestimation of the variances. However, the attenuator tends to bias the estimates of the climate feedback parameter obtained from a simple regression analysis of simulated variables toward unrealistically low values. This is because the reduced random forcings amplify the negative effect of a warming trend due to greenhouse emissions (when added to random forcing) on feedback estimation. Without the attenuator, the estimated feedback is much more accurate. The bias induced from the attenuator was largely resolved for the feedback estimation by the methodology of Lindzen and Choi (Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 47(4):377–390, 2011), which minimizes the negative effect of the warming trends by isolating short (few months) segments of increasing and decreasing temperature changes.     

Establishment of a multiple-Doppler radar wind retrieval system and its application to the analysis of mesoscale convective systems

A multiple-Doppler radar wind retrieval system is established by using a three dimensional variation method. The system consists of two parts. One is to interpolate reflectivities and radial velocities of nine Doppler radars of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) into one analysis domain. The other is to retrieve three dimensional winds by minimizing a cost function that includes the following costs and constraints: the observed radial velocity cost, background wind cost, continuity constraint and smoothness constraint. In order to verify the performance of the system, retrieved winds are compared with observed winds obtained from five wind profilers of KMA. The performance of the system depends on the relative position to the baselines between Doppler radars. However, the performance of the system is enhanced when the number of overlaps among the radial velocities increases. The system is applied to the analysis of the evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) on the Changma front on 1 July 2005. The analysis result shows that a new convective cell is developed by the convergence of the low troposphere winds at the organizing stage. The analysis of the vertical vorticity reveals that, among the two vorticity generation terms to be calculated utilizing the retrieved winds, tilting or twisting source dominates the divergence source in most convective regions. The strong downdrafts associated with the storm are produced on the downdraft branch of a meridional direction secondary circulation across the Changma front.