Dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of past landslide reactivation with seasonal precision: the Bois Noir landslide, southeast French Alps

The purpose of this study was to reconstruct spatiotemporal patterns of past landslide reactivation in a forested area of the Barcelonnette Basin (Bois Noir landslide, Southern French Alps). Analysis of past events was based on tree ring series from 79 heavily affected Mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Mill. ex Mirb) trees growing near or next to the landslide body. Dendrogeomorphic analysis focused on the presence of compression wood and growth reductions, with the first reaction being used for a dating of past reactivations with seasonal precision. A total of 151 growth disturbances were identified in the samples representing eight different stages of reactivation of the landslide body between 1874 and 2008. The spatiotemporal accuracy of the reconstruction is confirmed by historical records from neighboring sites and by aerial photographs. The onset of compression wood formation allows identifying five stages of landslide reactivation during the dormant season or the very beginning of the growing season of trees, i.e., between early October and late May, and three stages toward the end of the growth period. Monthly rainfall data from the HISTALP database demonstrate that the rainfall during four out of the eight reactivations are characterized by summer rainfall totals (July?CAugust) exceeding 200?mm, pointing to the important role of summer rainstorms in the triggering of events at the Bois Noir landslide body.     

Spatio-temporal Slip, and Stress Level on the Faults within the Western Foothills of Taiwan: Implications for Fault Frictional Properties

We use preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic GPS data of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake to infer spatio-temporal variation of fault slip and frictional behavior on the Chelungpu fault. The geodetic data shows that coseismic slip during the Chi-Chi earthquake occurred within a patch that was locked in the period preceding the earthquake, and that afterslip occurred dominantly downdip from the ruptured area. To first-order, the observed pattern and the temporal evolution of afterslip is consistent with models of the seismic cycle based on rate-and-state friction. Comparison with the distribution of temperature on the fault derived from thermo-kinematic modeling shows that aseismic slip becomes dominant where temperature is estimated to exceed 200° at depth. This inference is consistent with the temperature induced transition from velocity-weakening to velocity-strengthening friction that is observed in laboratory experiments on quartzo-feldspathic rocks. The time evolution of afterslip is consistent with afterslip being governed by velocity-strengthening frictional sliding. The dependency of friction, μ, on the sliding velocity, V, is estimated to be ${{\partial \mu }/{\partial \, {\rm ln}\, V}} = 8 \times 10^{ - 3}$ . We report an azimuthal difference of about 10–20° between preseismic and postseismic GPS velocities, which we interpret to reflect the very low shear stress on the creeping portion of the décollement beneath the Central Range, of the order of 1–3 MPa, implying a very low friction of about 0.01. This study highlights the importance of temperature and pore pressure in determining fault frictional sliding.     

东日本大地震启示

一组高质量的数据记录了2011年3月东日本大地震的震前、地震发生时以及震后的地表形变。但目前还没有适当的模型可以利用类似数据来对地震和海啸危险性进行评估。随着基于空间的测量板块构造边界和大型断层表面形变技术的发展,地震科学已经跨入一个全新的时代。日本在实施这些技术方面一直走在前列,特别是随着大约15年     

The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics

In this paper, we study optimal economic growth programs coupled with climate change dynamics. The study is based on models derived from MERGE, a well established integrated assessment model (IAM). We discuss first the introduction in MERGE of a set of “tolerable window” constraints which limit both the temperature change and the rate of temperature change. These constraints, obtained from ensemble simulations performed with the Bern 2.5-D climate model, allow us to identity a domain intended to preserve the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Next, we report on experiments where a two-way coupling is realized between the economic module of MERGE and an intermediate complexity “3-D-” climate model (C-GOLDSTEIN) which computes the changes in climate and mean temperature. The coupling is achieved through the implementation of an advanced “oracle based optimization technique” which permits the integration of information coming from the climate model during the search for the optimal economic growth path. Both cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis modes are explored with this combined “meta-model” which we refer to as GOLDMERGE. Some perspectives on future implementations of these approaches in the context of “collaborative” or “community” integrated assessment modules are derived from the comparison of the different approaches.     

Mise en évidence d'un décrochement ductile senestre dans l'ı̂le de Porquerolles (Var,France) et ses implications sur la tectonique du massif des Maures au Paléozoı̈que supérieur

A new geological map of the Palaeozoic units from the Porquerolles Island provides evidence for two main units joined along a north–south-trending shear zone: a western unit of schist, sandstone and microconglomerates, an eastern unit of schist including calcareous rocks, metabasite and various types of mineralisations. The shear zone has experienced a main strike-slip, sinistral movement in a ductile regime, and a late westward normal movement from ductile to brittle regimes. It crosscuts an early thrust fault, marked by penetrative syn-metamorphic deformation and the abundance of quartz rods. According to geometrical relationships, the regional conic fold is interpreted as a large-scale dragging of foliation related to strike-slip faulting. Combined folding and wrenching point out a main transpressional tectonics related to the continental collision dated Middle Visean in the central and eastern parts of the Variscan Maures massif. To cite this article: J.-P. Bellot, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Methodology for bounding calculations of nuclear criticality of fissile material accumulations external to a waste container at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The possibility of nuclear criticality, however remote, in the vicinity of the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada generates justified concerns and may impact the performance of the repository. A heuristic approach is presented here for determining the amount, spatial distribution and other characteristics of fissile material accumulation in the rock beneath a waste package that could contribute to such an event. This study is concerned primarily with waste packages containing special spent fuel from the Department of Energy and high-level nuclear waste glass. Mixing with less alkaline waters and the subsequent drop in pH is the mechanism that is most efficient for precipitating fissile material from the waste package internal leachate, in contrast to natural deposits in which redox changes are the main precipitation driver. External accumulation size is determined by (1) computing the chemical composition of the leachate leaving a package as its internal materials degrade (with the batch geochemical code EQ3/6), (2) determining precipitation of fissile material into mineral phases (using the 1D geochemical code PHREEQC) as the effluent mixes with percolation water, and (3) heuristically scaling results to a 3D volume and computing the criticality coefficient (using the code MCNP). Loci for accumulation are the multiple lithophysal cavities and the fracture system. A bounding conservative approach is used by necessity in Step 3. Nuclear criticality is sensitive to small variations in the distribution of fissile material and parameters of natural systems vary by orders of magnitude. Because the most likely combinations of parameters are not conducive to nuclear criticality, this study focuses on extreme values of parameter probabilistic distributions, such as limited flow into the package associated with a large percolation rate, combinations of material degradation rates favoring actinide release, and very high host-rock porosity values. By considering these combinations, most favorable to criticality but unlikely, it was concluded that external nuclear criticality is not a concern at the proposed repository.     

Sources of groundwater pumpage in a layered aquifer system in the Upper Gulf Coastal Plain, USA

Understanding groundwater-pumpage sources is essential for assessing impacts on water resources and sustainability. The objective of this study was to quantify pumping impacts and sources in dipping, unconfined/confined aquifers in the Gulf Coast (USA) using the Texas Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer. Potentiometric-surface and streamflow data and groundwater modeling were used to evaluate sources and impacts of pumpage. Estimated groundwater storage is much greater in the confined aquifer (2,200?km³) than in the unconfined aquifer (170?km³); however, feasibility of abstraction depends on pumpage impacts on the flow system. Simulated pre-development recharge (0.96?km³/yr) discharged through evapotranspiration (ET, ～37%), baseflow to streams (～57%), and to the confined aquifer (～6%). Transient simulations (1980–1999) show that pumpage changed three out of ten streams from gaining to losing in the semiarid south and reversed regional vertical flow gradients in ～40% of the entire aquifer area. Simulations of predictive pumpage to 2050 indicate continued storage depletion (41% from storage, 32% from local discharge, and 25% from regional discharge capture). It takes ～100?yrs to recover 40% of storage after pumpage ceases in the south. This study underscores the importance of considering capture mechanism and long-term system response in developing water-management strategies.     

High-end aerial digital cameras and their impact on the automation and quality of the production workflow

The IGN digital camera project was established in the early 1990s. The first research surveys were carried out in 1996 and the digital camera was first used in production in 2000. In 2004 approximately 10 French departments (accounting for 10% of the territory) were covered with a four-head camera system and since summer 2005 all IGN imagery has been acquired digitally. Nevertheless the camera system is still evolving, with tests on new geometric configurations being continuously undertaken. The progressive integration of the system in IGN production workflows has allowed IGN to keep the system evolving in accordance with production needs. Remaining problems are due to specific camera characteristics such as CCD format, the optical quality of off-the-shelf lenses, and because some production tools are ill-adapted to digital images with a large dynamic range. However, when considering the pros and cons of integrating these images into production lines, the disadvantages are largely balanced by the numerous benefits this technology offers.     

Long-term monitoring of a large deep-seated landslide (La Clapiere,South-East French Alps): initial study

The large-scale deformation of high mountain slopes finds its origin in many phenomena (inherent parameters, external stresses) with very different time constants (instantaneous to geological scale). Gravitational effect, tectonic forces and water infiltration are generally the principal causes of slope instability. However, it can be very difficult to distinguish which cause is dominant and which are their respective effects. To gain a better understanding of the complex processes taking place during the evolution of an unstable slope and separate the causes responsible of the landslide dynamic, an observational study based on geodetic, meteorological, seismological and electrical data has been performed on the La Clapière rockslide (Southern French Alps). This deep-seated landslide (DSL) is known for many years as one of the largest and fastest rock slide in Europe (60 million m³ of highly weathered metamorphic material, moving at 1 to 3 m year^?1). The set-up of the “Observatoire Multidisciplinaire des Instabilités de Versants” (OMIV, http://omiv.osug.fr) in 2011 has allowed the production and availability of an important and original data set over several years of accurate monitoring. Thus, for the first time, the long-term study of geodetic data permitted us to highlight acceleration phases in the general movement of the landslide that affect its dynamic. These modifications are associated with variations of the velocity by a factor 3 to 6. The characterization of the origin of these variations was possible due to the comparison with meteorological, electrical and seismological data. Based on these various signals, we were able to establish correlations and contributions of meteorological water infiltration in the dynamic evolution of the La Clapière slope. We determine several response times to the meteorological stress for seismic endogenous events (mainly rockfalls), the resistivity of the ground (quasi-instantaneous) and the kinematics of the slope (from 2 weeks to 2.5 months). Moreover, our results strongly suggest the existence of rainfall threshold of 3.5?±?1 mm day^?1 from which the number of seismic endogenous events is highly increased.