An early Palaeozoic supra-subduction lithosphere in the Variscides: new evidence from the Maures massif

Petrographic and geochemical studies of peridotites and melagabbros from the Maures massif (SE France) provide new constraints on the Early Palaeozoic evolution of the continental lithosphere in Western Europe. Peridotites occur as lenses along a unit rooted in the main Variscan suture zone. They are dominantly spinel peridotites and minor garnet–spinel peridotites. Spinel peridotites represent both residual mantle and ultramafic cumulates. Mantle-related dunites and harzburgites display high temperature textures, with olivine (Mg#_0.90), orthopyroxene (Mg#_0.90) and spinel (TiO₂ < 0.2%; Cr#_0.64–0.83) compositions typical of fore-arc upper mantle. Ultramafic cumulates are dunite adcumulates, harzburgite heteradcumulates and mesocumulates, melagabbro heteradcumulates and amphibole peridotites, with olivine (Mg#_0.85–0.89), orthopyroxene (Mg#_0.86–0.89) and Cr-spinel (TiO₂ = 0.5–3.3%; Cr#_0.7–0.98) compositions typical of ultramafic cumulates. Cr-spinel compositions of both spinel peridotite types suggest their genesis in a supra-subduction zone lithosphere. Core to rim zoning in spinel is related to the incomplete influence of regional metamorphism and serpentinisation. The covariation of major and minor elements with Al₂O₃ for cumulates is consistent with igneous processes involving crystal accumulation. Both mantle and cumulate dunites and harzburgites have U-shaped REE patterns and extremely low trace element contents, similar to peridotites from modern fore-arc peridotites (South Atlantic) and from ophiolites related to supra-subduction zones (Semail, Cyclops, Pindos, Troodos). Melagabbros also have U-shaped REE patterns similar to xenoliths from the Philippine island arc, but also similar to intrusive ultramafic cumulates from the Semail nappe of Oman related to a proto-subduction setting. A wehrlite has a REE pattern similar to that of amphibole peridotites reflecting metasomatism of clinopyroxene-bearing peridotites due to subduction-related fluids. The Maures spinel peridotites and melagabbros are therefore interpreted as the lowermost parts of a crustal sequence and minor residual mantle of lithosphere generated in a supra-subduction zone during Early Palaeozoic time. Garnet–spinel peridotites are chemically close to melagabbros, but have recorded high pressure metamorphism before their retrogression similar to spinel peridotites into amphibolites to greenschists facies metamorphism. They indicate burial to mantle depths of the margin of the supra-subduction lithosphere during the Early Palaeozoic continental subduction. Both peridotite types were exhumed during the Upper Palaeozoic continental collision. Comparable observations from other Variscan-related peridotites, in particular of the Speik complex of the Autroalpine basement, and a common age for the subduction stage allow extension of these regional conclusions to a broad area sharing the Cambrian suture zone, extending from the Ossa-Morena to the Bohemian massif.     

Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.     

Calibration framework for a Kalman filter applied to a groundwater model

The paper presents a novel approach to the setup of a Kalman filter by using an automatic calibration framework for estimation of the covariance matrices. The calibration consists of two sequential steps: (1) Automatic calibration of a set of covariance parameters to optimize the performance of the system and (2) adjustment of the model and observation variance to provide an uncertainty analysis relying on the data instead of ad-hoc covariance values. The method is applied to a twin-test experiment with a groundwater model and a colored noise Kalman filter. The filter is implemented in an ensemble framework. It is demonstrated that lattice sampling is preferable to the usual Monte Carlo simulation because its ability to preserve the theoretical mean reduces the size of the ensemble needed. The resulting Kalman filter proves to be efficient in correcting dynamic error and bias over the whole domain studied. The uncertainty analysis provides a reliable estimate of the error in the neighborhood of assimilation points but the simplicity of the covariance models leads to underestimation of the errors far from assimilation points.     

Plate Motion of India and Interseismic Strain in the Nepal Himalaya from GPS and DORIS Measurements

We analyse geodetically estimated deformation across the Nepal Himalaya in order to determine the geodetic rate of shortening between Southern Tibet and India, previously proposed to range from 12 to 21 mm yr^?1. The dataset includes spirit-levelling data along a road going from the Indian to the Tibetan border across Central Nepal, data from the DORIS station on Everest, which has been analysed since 1993, GPS campaign measurements from surveys carried on between 1995 and 2001, as well as data from continuous GPS stations along a transect at the logitude of Kathmandu operated continuously since 1997. The GPS data were processed in International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2000 (ITRF2000), together with the data from 20 International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and then combined using quasi- observation combination analysis (QOCA). Finally, spatially complementary velocities at stations in Southern Tibet, initially determined in ITRF97, were expressed in ITRF2000. After analysing previous studies by different authors, we determined the pole of rotation of the Indian tectonic plate to be located in ITRF2000 at 51.409±1.560° N and ?10.915±5.556°E, with an angular velocity of 0.483±0.015°. Myr^?1. Internal deformation of India is found to be small, corresponding to less than about 2 mm yr^?1 of baseline change between Southern India and the Himalayan piedmont. Based on an elastic dislocation model of interseismic strain and taking into account the uncertainty on India plate motion, the mean convergence rate across Central and Eastern Nepal is estimated to 19±2.5 mm yr^?1, (at the 67% confidence level). The main himalayan thrust (MHT) fault was found to be locked from the surface to a depth of about 20 km over a width of about 115 km. In these regions, the model parameters are well constrained, thanks to the long and continuous time-series from the permanent GPS as well as DORIS data. Further west, a convergence rate of 13.4±5 mm yr^?1, as well as a fault zone, locked over 150 km, are proposed. The slight discrepancy between the geologically estimated deformation rate of 21±1.5 mm yr^?1 and the 19±2.5 mm yr^?1 geodetic rate in Central and Eastern Nepal, as well as the lower geodetic rate in Western Nepal compared to Eastern Nepal, places bounds on possible temporal variations of the pattern and rate of strain in the period between large earthquakes in this region.     

Epiclastic deposits and ‘horseshoe-shaped’ calderas in Tahiti (Society Islands) and Ua Huka (Marquesas Archipelago), French Polynesia

Occurrences of debris avalanche deposits newly identified in Tahiti (Society Islands) and Ua Huka (Marquesas Archipelago) are described and interpreted here. In both islands, the breccias are located within horseshoe-shaped residual calderas. In Tahiti, the epiclastic formations, up to 500 m thick, lie on the floor of the central depression and in the valley of the northwards running Papenoo River. In Ua Huka, the breccias crop out within a depression limited by a semicircular crest in four bays along the southern coast. Their thickness is ca. 100 m. A few clasts collected in the Tahitian breccias and some rocks forming their substratum have been dated (K–Ar datings) and analysed (major and trace elements, Sr–Nd isotopes) for this study. Using these data, we show that the debris avalanche(s) occurred in Tahiti Nui at the end of the growth of the shield volcano (between 570 000 and 390 000 years ago), maybe in consequence of the emplacement of the plutonic body which occupies the central part of the caldera. In Ua Huka, the collapse took place nearly 3 Ma ago, between the construction of the shield volcano and that of the inner one. The southwards orientation of the caldera, like that of the neighbouring island Nuku Hiva, might reflect a preferential direction of weakness in the substratum of the central Marquesas.     

A possible link between gabbros bearing High Temperature Iddingsite alteration and huge pegmatoid intrusions: The Society Islands, French Polynesia

This paper reports new field observations and new petrological, textural and geochemical data on two gabbroic intrusions and one pegmatoid dyke from the French Polynesian islands Maupiti and Bora Bora, respectively. Olivine crystals from the Faataufi and Barque de Hiro gabbros (Maupiti) include High Temperature Iddingsite (HTI), exhibiting three distinct morphological facies. Chemical and crystallographical data performed by electron microprobe, scanning microscope, X-ray diffractometry and Near InfraRed spectroscopy show that HTI results from modifications of olivine structure through intense hydroxylation and Fe-oxidation. The HTI-free 120 m-wide Cloche de Hiro dyke (Bora Bora) exhibits a textural zonation from heterogranular/intergranular gabbro (peripheral part) to typical pegmatoid (inner area). We propose a textural tetrahedral classificatory diagram which can be used to clearly distinguish the textural characteristics of the pegmatoids from those of the other coarse-grained samples. Through comparison with a lava flow containing vesicle-rich segregation sheets, we suggest that the Cloche de Hiro dyke may correspond to a huge segregation structure derived from a Maupiti-type HTI-bearing gabbro through a vapor-differentiation process. Both intrusions might be considered as representative of two superposed levels in a vertically arranged magmatic complex. In this view, the Maupiti gabbroic bodies would represent the lower part of the postulated system. Under high oxygen fugacity, olivine crystals would have undergone important modifications of their structure, leading to HTI. The huge Bora Bora pegmatoid dyke would be the upper part of the complex. After expulsion from the HTI-bearing gabbroic solidification zone by build-up of gas pressure, vesicle-rich residual melt would have gathered into a shallow level and crystallized there as a pegmatoid body.     

Adakitic magmas in the Ecuadorian Volcanic Front: Petrogenesis of the Iliniza Volcanic Complex (Ecuador)

The Iliniza Volcanic Complex (IVC) is a poorly known volcanic complex located 60 km SSW of Quito in the Western Cordillera of Ecuador. It comprises twin peaks, North Iliniza and South Iliniza, and two satellite domes, Pilongo and Tishigcuchi. The study of the IVC was undertaken in order to better constrain the role of adakitic magmas in the Ecuadorian arc evolution. The presence of volcanic rocks with an adakitic imprint or even pristine adakites in the Ecuadorian volcanic arc is known since the late 1990s. Adakitic magmas are produced by the partial melting of a basaltic source leaving a garnet rich residue. This process can be related to the melting of an overthickened crust or a subducting oceanic crust. For the last case a special geodynamic context is required, like the subduction of a young lithosphere or when the subduction angle is not very steep; both cases are possible in Ecuador. The products of the IVC, made up of medium-K basaltic andesites, andesites and dacites, have been divided in different geochemical series whose origin requires various interactions between the different magma sources involved in this subduction zone. North Iliniza is a classic calc-alkaline series that we interpret as resulting from the partial melting of the mantle wedge. For South Iliniza, a simple evolution with fractional crystallization of amphibole, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, magnetite, apatite and zircon from a parental magma, being itself the product of the mixing of 36% adakitic and 64% calc-alkaline magma, has been quantified. For the Santa Rosa rhyolites, a slab melting origin with little mantle interactions during the ascent of magmas has been established. The Pilongo series magma is the product of a moderate to high degree (26%) of partial melting of the subducting oceanic crust, which reached the surface without interaction with the mantle wedge. The Tishigcuchi series shows two stages of evolution: (1) metasomatism of the mantle wedge peridotite by slab melts, and (2) partial melting (10%) of this metasomatized source. Therefore, the relative ages of the edifices show a geochemical evolution from calc-alkaline to adakitic magmas, as is observed for several volcanoes of the Ecuadorian arc.     

Neural network based daily precipitation generator (NNGEN-P)

Daily weather generators are used in many applications and risk analyses. The present paper explores the potential of neural network architectures to design daily weather generator models. Focusing this first paper on precipitation, we design a collection of neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons in the present case), which are trained so as to approximate the empirical cumulative distribution (CDF) function for the occurrence of wet and dry spells and for the precipitation amounts. This approach contributes to correct some of the biases of the usual two-step weather generator models. As compared to a rainfall occurrence Markov model, NNGEN-P represents fairly well the mean and standard deviation of the number of wet days per month, and it significantly improves the simulation of the longest dry and wet periods. Then, we compared NNGEN-P to three parametric distribution functions usually applied to fit rainfall cumulative distribution functions (Gamma, Weibull and double-exponential). A data set of 19 Argentine stations was used. Also, data corresponding to stations in the United States, in Europe and in the Tropics were included to confirm the results. One of the advantages of NNGEN-P is that it is non-parametric. Unlike other parametric function, which adapt to certain types of climate regimes, NNGEN-P is fully adaptive to the observed cumulative distribution functions, which, on some occasions, may present complex shapes. On-going works will soon produce an extended version of NNGEN to temperature and radiation.     

Observed precipitation in the Paraná-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections

The Paraná-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Paraná-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Niño. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Paraná-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Niño and La Niña conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Niño3.4 or Niño1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.     

Segregation structures in vapor-differentiated basaltic flows

 Vesicle cylinders represent a spectacular kind of segregation structure involving residual liquids formed in situ during the cooling of lava flows. These vertical pipes, commonly found within basalt flows typically 2–10 m thick, are interpreted as the product of a vapor-driven differentiation process. The olivine phenocrysts and the earliest generation of groundmass olivines found in cylinder-bearing basalts appear to have been generally affected by magmatic oxidation, resulting in high-temperature iddingsite (HTI) alteration. This feature is also observed within cylinder-free basalt flows which exhibit other kinds of vesicular segregation structures, such as vesicle-rich pegmatoid segregation sheets and/or segregation vesicles. Detailed textural, petrological, and geochemical characteristics of two types of cylinders, three types of vesicle sheets, and five types of segregation vesicles are described, based on the study of 12 occurrences of HTI-bearing basalt flows from oceanic shield volcanoes or continental basalt plateaus. We propose a general classification of these segregation structures likely to derive from vapor differentiation. Flow thickness is probably the main factor influencing their morphology. Finally, we suggest that the concomitant occurrence of olivine oxidation and vapor-differentiation effects results from the late persistence of water oversaturation after eruption, perhaps due to a high rate of magma ascent. Received: 27 March 1999 / Accepted: 15 February 2000