Local ensemble assimilation scheme with global constraints and conservation

Ensemble assimilation schemes applied in their original, global formulation respect linear conservation properties if the ensemble perturbations are set up accordingly. For realistic ocean systems, only a relatively small number of ensemble members can be calculated. A localization of the ensemble increment is therefore necessary to filter out spurious long-range correlations. The conservation of the global properties will be lost if the assimilation is performed locally, since the conservation requires a coupling between all model grid points which is removed by the localization. The distribution of ocean observations is often highly inhomogeneous. Systematic errors of the observed parts of the ocean state can lead to spurious adjustment of the non-observed parts via data assimilation and thus to a spurious increase or decrease in long-term simulations of global properties which should be conserved. In this paper, we propose a local assimilation scheme (with different variants and assumptions) which can satisfy global conservation properties. The proposed scheme can also be used for non-local observation operators. Different variants of the proposed scheme are tested in an idealized model and compared to the traditional covariance localization with an ad-hoc step enforcing conservation. It is shown that the inclusion of the conservation property reduces the total RMS error and that the presented stochastic and deterministic schemes avoiding error space rotation provide better results than the traditional covariance localization.     

Is the world's economic centre of gravity already in Asia?

This paper proposes a novel and simple measure of the world's economic centre of gravity. Over the recent decades, this centre has shifted towards Asia, but is still located in Europe.     

Characterisation of contemporary local climate change in the mountains of southwest Bulgaria

The Pirin Mountains in southwest Bulgaria spatially mark a transition between the Mediterranean and temperate climate zones. Therefore they are also particularly relevant for research on high mountain climate and the effect of landscape transformation. Historical climate records gathered in the area have been researched, checked and statistically examined. The mountainous climate has been characterised and trends in the evolution of temperature and precipitation since 1931 have been outlined. There are objective evidences for an increasing annual mean temperature, longer vegetative periods and local droughts in spring and autumn. Significant changes also appear in climatic threshold values such as the number of frost change days. This last parameter is very important for the sustainability of mountainous ecosystems.     

The tectono-sedimentary evolution of a hyper-extended rift basin: the example of the Arzacq–Mauléon rift system (Western Pyrenees,SW France)

In this paper, we present a sedimentary and structural analysis that together with maps, sections and new Ar/Ar data enable to describe the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Mauléon hyper-extended rift basin exposed in the W-Pyrenees. Hyper-extension processes that ultimately resulted in exhuming mantle rocks are the result of the subsequent development of two diachronous detachment systems related to two evolutional stages of rifting. An initial Late Aptian Early Albian crustal thinning phase is first recorded by the development of a crustal necking zone controlled by the north-vergent Southern Mauléon Detachment system. During a subsequent exhumation phase, active faulting migrates to the north with the emplacement of the Northern Mauléon detachment system that exhumed north section thinned continental crust and mantle rocks. This diachronous crustal thinning and exhumation processes are also recorded by the diachronous deposition of syn-tectonic sedimentary tracts above the two supra-detachment sub-basins. Syn-tectonic sedimentary tracts record the progressive exhumation of footwall rocks along detachment systems. Tectonic migration from the southern to the northern Mauléon Detachment system is recorded by the coeval deposition of “sag” deposits above the necking zone basin and of syn-tectonic tracts above exhumed rocks north section. Located on a hanging-wall situation related to the Mauléon hyper-extension structures, the Arzacq Basin also records a major crustal thinning phase as shown by its subsidence evolution so as by deep seismic images. The absence of major top-basement structures and its overall sag morphology suggest that crustal thinning processes occurred by decoupled extension of lower crustal levels contrasting with the Southern Mauléon Detachment system. Reconciling observations from the Mauléon and Arzacq Basins, we finally propose in this paper that they were the result of one and the same asymmetric crustal thinning and exhumation processes, where extension is accommodated into the upper crust in the Mauléon Basin (lower plate basin) and relayed in ductile lower crust below the Arzacq Basin (upper plate basin).     

Super-ensemble techniques: Application to surface drift prediction

The prediction of surface drift of floating objects is an important task, with applications such as marine transport, pollutant dispersion, and search-and-rescue activities. But forecasting even the drift of surface waters is very challenging, because it depends on complex interactions of currents driven by the wind, the wave field and the general prevailing circulation. Furthermore, although each of those can be forecasted by deterministic models, the latter all suffer from limitations, resulting in imperfect predictions. In the present study, we try and predict the drift of two buoys launched during the DART06 (Dynamics of the Adriatic sea in Real-Time 2006) and MREA07 (Maritime Rapid Environmental Assessment 2007) sea trials, using the so-called hyper-ensemble technique: different models are combined in order to minimize departure from independent observations during a training period; the obtained combination is then used in forecasting mode. We review and try out different hyper-ensemble techniques, such as the simple ensemble mean, least-squares weighted linear combinations, and techniques based on data assimilation, which dynamically update the model’s weights in the combination when new observations become available. We show that the latter methods alleviate the need of fixing the training length a priori, as older information is automatically discarded.When the forecast period is relatively short (12 h), the discussed methods lead to much smaller forecasting errors compared with individual models (at least three times smaller), with the dynamic methods leading to the best results. When many models are available, errors can be further reduced by removing colinearities between them by performing a principal component analysis. At the same time, this reduces the amount of weights to be determined.In complex environments when meso- and smaller scale eddy activity is strong, such as the Ligurian Sea, the skill of individual models may vary over time periods smaller than the forecasting period (e.g. when the latter is 36 h). In these cases, a simpler method such as a fixed linear combination or a simple ensemble mean may lead to the smallest forecast errors. In environments where surface currents have strong mean-kinetic energies (e.g. the Western Adriatic Current), dynamic methods can be particularly successful in predicting the drift of surface waters. In any case, the dynamic hyper-ensemble methods allow to estimate a characteristic time during which the model weights are more or less stable, which allows predicting how long the obtained combination will be valid in forecasting mode, and hence to choose which hyper-ensemble method one should use.     

Sources of Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn in Portuguese coastal waters

In order to identify the major sources of trace metals (TM) in the Portuguese coastal waters, 58 surface water samples were collected during September 1988. The area sampled extended from the Tagus Estuary (down to a salinity of 25) to cape Ste Marie on the southern coast of Portugal. Dissolved metal concentrations in the fully marine waters ranged from 30 to 250 pM for Cd, 0.7–15 nM for Cu, 0.9–20 nM for Zn and 1.8–4.5 nM for Ni. Within the Tagus Estuary (salinity 25), concentrations increased to 3400 pM for Cd, 26 nM for Cu, 14 nM for Ni and 230 nM for Zn.The large-scale distribution of these metals is dominated by two strong continental sources, both probably linked to the exploitation of pyrite ores. In the Tagus Estuary, TM enrichments can be mostly attributed to a pyrite roasting plant located on the shore in front of Lisbon. Concerning the south Portuguese shelf waters, several hypotheses are proposed to explain their elevated metal concentrations. We particularly discussed the likely influence of the Tinto/Odiel rivers located 100 km eastward, an influence well known in the shelf waters of the Gulf of Cadiz. These rivers are extremely metal-rich because of acid mine tailings originating from their catchment. Between these two regions, upwelling of relatively metal-poor water largely contributes to the dilution of the continental inputs. Indeed, water exchanges on the shelf linked to the upwelling involve water fluxes 500 times higher than the Tagus River flow, and renew the coastal waters that are thus cleaned from terrestrial contamination. Contrary to many other upwelling systems in non-contaminated areas, the Portuguese upwelling does not act as a source of trace-metal enrichment of the continental margin waters.     

Metal fluxes through the Strait of Gibraltar: the influence of the Tinto and Odiel rivers (SW Spain)

A large set of new data concerning dissolved metal concentrations has been acquired in the Gulf of Cadiz and in the Strait of Gibraltar from 1996 to 1999. These data, associated with models (hydrodynamic, tracer advection–dispersion and mixing), have been used to assess the influence of rivers draining the South Iberian Pyrite Belt on the Gulf of Cadiz and on the Atlantic inflow in the Strait of Gibraltar.Metal concentrations in surface waters from the Gulf of Cadiz are maximal near the mouth of the Tinto/Odiel rivers with values exceeding 50 nmol/kg (Mn), 5 nmol/kg (Ni), 30 nmol/kg (Cu), 100 nmol/kg (Zn), 0.9 nmol/kg (Cd) and 45 nmol/kg (As). From the Tinto/Odiel river, a plume of contamination follows the coast in the direction of the Strait of Gibraltar. The computation of a tracer advection–dispersion model confirms that the coastal currents carry the metals discharged from the Tinto and Odiel to the Strait of Gibraltar.From temperature–salinity and metal–salinity plots, four water masses can be recognised in the Gulf of Cadiz and in the Strait of Gibraltar: North Atlantic Surface Water (NASW), North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) and metal-enriched Spanish Shelf Waters from the Gulf of Cadiz (SSW). The Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is also clearly seen at depths greater than 300 m.The chemical characteristics of these various water masses have been used in a mixing model to evaluate their relative contribution to the Atlantic inflow through the Strait of Gibraltar. These contributions are seasonally variable. In June 1997, the contribution was: 80±20%, 5±5% and 15±10% for NASW, NACW and SSW, respectively. In September, the SSW contribution was apparently negligible.Finally, these relative contributions allow the evaluation of the metal fluxes in the Strait of Gibraltar. The presence of SSW in the Strait increases the metal flux to the Mediterranean Sea by a factor of 2.3 (Cu), 2.4 (Cd), 3 (Zn) and 7 (Mn). It does not modify significantly As and Ni fluxes.     

Report on the solar physics-plasma physics workshop

This report summarizes the proceedings of a meeting held on 17–20 September 1974, at Stanford University. The purpose was to explore plasma physics problems which arise in the study of solar physics. Sessions were concerned with specific questions including the following: Is the solar plasma thermal or non-thermal? What spectroscopic data are required? What types of magnetic field structures exist? Do MHD instabilities occur? Do resistive or non-MHD instabilities occur? What mechanisms of particle acceleration have been proposed? What information do we have concerning shock waves? Very few questions were answered categorically but, for each question, there was discussion concerning the observational evidence, theoretical analyses, and existing or potential laboratory and numerical experiments.