Development of a modelling methodology for simulation of long-term morphological evolution of the southern Baltic coast

The Darss–Zingst peninsula at the southern Baltic Sea is a typical wave-dominated barrier island system which includes an outer barrier island and an inner lagoon. The formation of the Darss–Zingst peninsula dates back to the Littorina Transgression onset about 8,000 cal BP. It originated from several discrete islands, has been reshaped by littoral currents, wind-induced waves during the last 8,000 years and evolved into a complex barrier island system as today; thus, it may serve as an example to study the coastal evolution under long-term climate change. A methodology for developing a long-term (decadal-to-centennial) process-based morphodynamic model for the southern Baltic coastal environment is presented here. The methodology consists of two main components: (1) a preliminary analysis of the key processes driving the morphological evolution of the study area based on statistical analysis of meteorological data and sensitivity studies; (2) a multi-scale high-resolution process-based model. The process-based model is structured into eight main modules. The two-dimensional vertically integrated circulation module, the wave module, the bottom boundary layer module, the sediment transport module, the cliff erosion module and the nearshore storm module are real-time calculation modules which aim at solving the short-term processes. A bathymetry update module and a long-term control function set, in which the ‘reduction’ concepts and technique for morphological update acceleration are implemented, are integrated to up-scale the effects of short-term processes to a decadal-to-centennial scale. A series of multi-scale modelling strategies are implemented in the application of the model to the research area. Successful hindcast of the coastline change of the Darss–Zingst peninsula for the last 300 years validates the modelling methodology. Model results indicate that the coastline change of the Darss–Zingst peninsula is dominated by mechanisms acting on different time scales. The coastlines of Darss and the island of Hiddensee are mainly reshaped by long-term effects of waves and longshore currents, while the coastline change of the Zingst peninsula is due to a combination of long-term effects of waves and short-term effects caused by wind storms.     

Quasi-stationary striations in basin-scale oceanic circulation: vorticity balance from observations and eddy-resolving model

Recently, prominent jet-like features of the ocean circulation, called striations, with a meridional scale of O(300–500 ;km) and extending for thousands of kilometers in length, have been detected in satellite and in situ observations and in high-resolution numerical models. In this paper, we study quasi-stationary striations, which are best seen in the multi-year time-averaged velocity fields. Using 1993–2002 mean dynamic ocean topography, satellite altimeter observations, and output of the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, the dynamics of the quasi-stationary striations in the eastern parts of the subtropical North and South Pacific are examined by assessing individual terms in the time-averaged equations of relative and potential vorticity. While non-linear effects are found to be essential in the dynamics of the striations, rejecting some linear hypotheses forwarded in the earlier studies, the relevance of the Rhines mechanism is not confirmed. Eddy flux does not act as a relative vorticity source for the striations. Using the potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics, we show that the time-mean PV is not conserved along the time-mean streamlines, and on the scale of the striations these changes in PV are largely induced by the eddy flux of layer thickness. The fact that eddy fluxes contribute to the striations’ time-mean PV budget suggests that the striations are not a kinematical artifact of time-averaging of westward-propagating eddies.     

Building frequency fluctuations from continuous monitoring of ambient vibrations and their relationship to temperature variations

Building frequencies (fundamental and higher modes) are a critical parameter especially in the field of structural health monitoring mainly based on the stability of the structural dynamic parameters of individual building (frequencies, damping and modes shape). One of the most used methods to find out these parameters is based on the use on ambient vibration analysis. In this work, we study the fluctuations over a month period of the fundamental frequencies (transverse and longitudinal) of a 3.5-story RC-building made of 2 identical units connected by a structural joint. Time independent building frequencies is a strong assumption; as illustrated by our experiment showing that over an observation period of a month, building frequencies fluctuate of about 3.5 %. A clear correlation is found between the building frequency fluctuations and temperature variations, with a phase-shift interpreted as the characteristic time of heat diffusion within the walls. This allows: (1) determining the thermal diffusivity of the structure, (2) inferring its relative stiffness variations, and (3) showing that its Young modulus varies linearly with temperature.     

Deep sea in situ excess pore pressure and sediment deformation off NW Sumatra and its relation with the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

The swath bathymetric data acquired during the “Sumatra Aftershocks” cruise from the Sunda trench in the Indian Ocean to the north of the Sumatra Island imaged several scars and deposits. In situ pore pressure measurements using the Ifremer piezometer and coring demonstrate that high excess pore pressure and sediment deformation was generated by a recent event in the scar of the slope failure zone identified by J.T. Henstock and co-authors. This excess pore pressure is localized in the upper sedimentary layers and is not related to an interplate subduction process. Numerical simulations of the hydrological system that take into account the hydro-mechanical properties of the upper sediment layer show that the excess pore pressure and sediment deformations could be generated at the time of the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra Earthquake. The Sumatra Aftershocks team: J.-C. Sibuet, S. Singh, R. Apprioual, N.C. Aryanto, J. Begot, A. Cattaneo, A.P.S. Chauchan, R. Creach, J. Crozon, A. Domzig, N. Falleau, D. Graindorge, F. Harmegnies, Y. Haryadi, F. Klingelhoffer, S.K. Kolluru, J.-Y. Landuré, C. Le Lann, J. Malod, A. Normand, G. Oggian, C. Rangin, D. Restunin Galih, J.-L. Schneider, N. Sultan, M. Taufik, M. Umber and H. Yamaguchi.     

Sr-isotope stratigraphy of the Upper Jurassic of central Portugal (Lusitanian Basin) based on oyster shells

Strontium isotope stratigraphy was performed on oyster shells from the Late Jurassic of the Lusitanian Basin (central Portugal). This represents the first approach to obtain numerical ages for these strata. The new chronostratigraphic data provide a more precise age determination of several units. After a basin-wide hiatus sedimentation in the Late Jurassic is proven in the Cabo Mondego and Cabaços formations to resume as early as the Middle Oxfordian. The Alcobaça formation can be placed in the latest Late Oxfordian to Late Kimmeridgian, while data from the upper part of the Abadia Formation indicate an Early to Late Kimmeridgian age. The Farta Pao formation ranges from the latest Kimmeridgian to the latest Tithonian. The largely synchronous Sobral, Arranhó I, and Arranhó II members are overlain by the late Early to Late Tithonian Freixial Member. The brief, local carbonate incursion of the Arranhó I member marks the Kimmeridgian–Tithonian boundary. Oysters are shown once more to be suitable for strontium isotope studies. Their calcitic shells are often unaffected by diagenesis. In particular for marginal marine Jurassic and Cretaceous strata, where belemnites are usually absent, oysters may serve as a valuable tool for isotope stratigraphy.     

From marginal to conditional probability functions of parameters in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model: an event-based approach

ABSTRACT

A parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events.     

Suturing of the Proto- and Paleo-Tethys oceans in the western Kunlun (Xinjiang, China)

The Proto-Tethys Ocean between the North and South Kunlun began to form during the Sinian. Remnants of this ocean are preserved at the Oytag-Kudi suture. The presence of Paleozoic arc batholiths in the northern South Kunlun and their absence in the North Kunlun indicates southward subduction of the Proto-Tethys Ocean beneath the South Kunlun. Opposite subduction polarity can be demonstrated for the Late Paleozoic to mid-Mesozoic when the southerly located Paleo-Tethys Ocean was consumed beneath the South Kunlun and generated a Late Carboniferous to mid-Jurassic magmatic arc in the southern South Kunlun. Arc magmatism affected the southern South Kunlun and the large Kara-Kunlun accretionary prism (a suture sensu lato) which formed as a result of Paleo-Tethys’ consumption. The dextral shear sense of ductile faults which are located at the margins of the arc batholiths, and which parallel the South Kunlun/Kara-Kunlun boundary, suggests oblique plate convergence with a dextral component. Different lines of evidence encourage us to interpret the Proto-Tethys ophiolites of the Oytag-Kudi zone as at least partly derived from an oceanic back-arc basin. In contrast, we assume that Paleo-Tethys was a large ocean basin which was eliminated directly at the southern margin of the South Kunlun where no oceanic back-arc region existed.     

How weather impacts the forced climate response

The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870?C1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500?mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control.     

Comparison of gas with liquid chromatography for the determination of benzenepolycarboxylic acids as molecular tracers of black carbon

Existing methods for black carbon (BC) quantification measure different parts of the BC continuum, which complicates the calculation of a global BC budget. Benzenepolycarboxylic acids (BPCA) are used as molecular markers to quantify and characterize BC in soils and sediments using gas chromatography for BPCA separation (GC-BPCA). Recently, this method was refined for BC analysis in seawater using high performance liquid chromatography (LC-BPCA), which omits the cleaning steps and derivatization necessary in GC analysis. As yet it is not clear whether the two analytical methods yield similar results. Here we apply both methods to a suite of laboratory produced charcoals derived from wood and grass. We found systematically lower total BPCA-C contents and larger analytical variability for all tested charcoals when using GC-BPCA compared to LC-BPCA, the latter giving 1.5 ± 0.3 times higher yields for the charcoal samples formed at 275-700 °C. At lower and higher pyrolysis temperatures the differences between the two analytical methods were larger. The main reason for the differences between the two methods is the loss of BPCA during sample preparation for GC analysis. We propose a correction factor of 1.5 to account for at least part of these losses. No qualitative biases, i.e. towards more or less functionalized BPCAs, were observed between the two methods. The relative contribution of mellitic acid C to total BPCA-C, a measure for the degree of condensation of BC, was the same in the two analytical techniques. Qualitative differences between wood and grass charcoals as detected by both methods were small.