Improved algorithms for generalized finite element simulations of three-dimensional hydraulic fracture propagation

This paper reports improvements to algorithms for the simulation of 3-D hydraulic fracturing with the Generalized Finite Element Method (GFEM). Three optimizations are presented and analyzed. First, an improved initial guess based on solving a 3-D elastic problem with the pressure from the previous step is shown to decrease the number of Newton iterations and increase robustness. Second, an improved methodology to find the time step that leads to fracture propagation is proposed and shown to decrease significantly the number of iterations. Third, reduced computational cost is observed by properly recycling the linear part of the coupled stiffness matrix. Two representative examples are used to analyze these improvements. Additionally, a methodology to include the leak-off term is presented and verified against asymptotic analytical solutions. Conservation of mass is shown to be well satisfied in all examples.     

Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Floods and livelihoods: The impact of changing water resources on wetland agro-ecological production systems in the Tana River Delta,Kenya

Wetlands are highly dynamic and productive systems that have been under increased pressure from changes in land use and water management strategies. In Eastern Africa, wetlands provide resources at multiple spatial and temporal levels through farming, fishing, livestock ownership and a host of other ecosystem services that sustain the local economy and individual livelihoods. As part of a broader effort to describe future development scenarios for East African coastal wetlands, this qualitative study focuses on understanding the processes by which river water depletion has affected local food production systems in Kenya's Tana River Delta over the past 50 years, and how this situation has impacted residents’ livelihoods and well-being. Interviews performed in six villages among various ethnic groups, geographical locations and resource profiles indicated that the agro-ecological production systems formerly in place were adapted to the river's dynamic flooding patterns. As these flooding patterns changed, the local population diversified and abandoned or adopted various farming, fishing and livestock-rearing techniques. Despite these efforts, the decrease in water availability affected each subcomponent of the production systems under study, which led to their collapse in the 1990s. Water depletion negatively impacted local human well-being through the loss of food security. The current study provides a detailed account of the dynamics of agro-ecological production systems facing the effects of river water depletion in a wetland-associated environment in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Coastal Occupations in Tierra del Fuego,Southernmost South America: A Late Holocene Hunter‐Gatherer Context at Marazzi 2

This paper focuses on the late Holocene occupation of hunter‐gatherers at the Marazzi 2 site located on the northwestern steppe of Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Our aim is to understand stratigraphy, formation processes, and pedogenesis with respect to human occupation over the last 3000 years. Based on archaeological excavations on a fluvial terrace of the Torcido River, we integrate soil micromorphology, mineralogy, geochemistry, magnetic susceptibility, and geomorphology, as well as the micro‐ and macrofrequency distributions of archaeological material. A micro‐taphonomical perspective is also applied to anthropogenic components recorded in sedimentary thin sections. We discuss various events in the interplay between soil development and human occupation through time. Marazzi 2 was witness to aggradation and pedogenesis with an episode of surface stability coincident with a phase of more intense human occupation at about 860 BC. Taphonomic analysis suggests that there are multiple occupation events mixed together, probably by biomechanical processes, resulting in a palimpsest with poor temporal resolution.     

Validation of MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields for monitoring deforestation and forest degradation: two cases in Mexico

This study assesses whether MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields percent tree cover (PTC) data can detect deforestation and forest degradation. To assess the usefulness of PTC for detecting deforestation, we used a data set consisting of eight forest and seven non-forest categories. To evaluate forest degradation, we used data from two temperate forest types in three conservation states: primary (dense), secondary (moderately degraded) and open (heavily degraded) forest. Our results show that PTC can differentiate temperate forest from non-forest categories (p = 0.05) and thus suggests PTC can adequately detect deforestation in temperate forests. In contrast, single-date PTC data does not appear to be adequate to detect forest degradation in temperate forests. As for tropical forest, PTC can partially discriminate between forest and non-forest categories.     

A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.     

Life after death: shallow‐water Mediterranean invertebrate communities associated with mammal bones

Invertebrate and microbial marine communities associated with mammal bones are interesting and poorly understood habitats, mainly known from studies on deep‐water whale remains. In order to characterize these communities in the shallow‐water Mediterranean, we present here the results of a pioneering experiment using mammal bones. Minke whale, pig and cow bones were experimentally deployed on three different background communities: rocky substrate, soft‐bottom and a Posidonia oceanica meadow. Bones were deployed for a year at about 20 m depth and collected every 3 months, and the invertebrate fauna colonizing the bones was identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. As expected, mammal bones showed remarkable differences when compared with background communities. Within bones, four different clusters could be identified, primarily on the basis of the polychaete fauna, the most abundant and diverse group in the survey. Clusters A1–A3 corresponded to high to moderately altered successional stages composed by a fauna closer to that of anthropogenically enriched shallow‐water environments. These clusters were characterized by the occurrence of the opportunist polychaetes Ophryotrocha puerilis, Neanthes caudata (Cluster A1), Protodorvillea kefersteini (Cluster A2) and Ophryotrocha alborana (Cluster A3). Cluster B was characterized by the presence of the polychaete Oxydromus pallidus together with typical invertebrate background fauna, which suggests that this community, after a year of deployment, was closer to that found in natural conditions. As opposed to similar shallow‐water studies in other geographic areas, no occurrence of the polychaete Osedax (commonly known as bone‐eating worms) was reported from our experiments. Apart from the study on the invertebrate communities, insights about the population dynamics of three of the most abundant species (O. puerilis, O. alborana, N. caudata) are given as well as remarks on a hypothetical trophic network based on fecal pellet analysis.     

Spatial distribution of crustaceans associated with shallow soft‐bottom habitats in a coral reef lagoon

The ecology and diversity of the shallow soft‐bottom areas adjacent to coral reefs are still poorly known. To date, the few studies conducted in these habitats dealing with macroinvertebrate fauna have focused on their abundance spatial patterns at high taxonomic levels. Thus, some aspects important to evaluate the importance and vulnerability of these habitats, such as species diversity or the degree of habitat specialization, have often been overlooked. In this study we compared the crustacean assemblages present in four different habitats at Magoodhoo Island coral reef lagoon (Maldives): coral rubble, sandy areas and two different seagrass species (Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea sp.). Forty‐two different crustacean species belonging to 30 families and four orders were found. ‘Site’ was a significant factor in all of the statistical analyses, indicating that tropical soft‐bottom habitats can be highly heterogeneous, even at a spatial scale between tens and hundreds of meters. Although traditionally it has been considered that seagrass beds host greater species diversity and abundance of organisms than adjacent unvegetated habitats, no differences in the univariate measures of fauna (abundance of organisms, number of species and Shannon diversity) were observed among habitats. However, sandy areas, coral rubble and seagrass beds exhibited different species composition of crustacean communities. The percentage of taxa considered as potential habitat specialists was 27% and the number of species exclusively occurring in one habitat was especially high in seagrass beds. Thus, degradation of this vegetated habitat would result in a great loss of biodiversity in tropical shallow soft‐bottom habitats.