Explicitly incorporating spatial dependence in predictive vegetation models in the form of explanatory variables: a Mojave Desert case study

Predictive vegetation modeling is defined as predicting the distribution of vegetation across a landscape based upon its relationship with environmental factors. These models generally ignore or attempt to remove spatial dependence in the data. When explicitly included in the model, spatial dependence can increase model accuracy. We develop presence/absence models for 11 vegetation alliances in the Mojave Desert with classification trees and generalized linear models, and use geostatistical interpolation to calculate spatial dependence terms used in the models. Results were mixed across models and methods, but in general, the spatial dependence terms more consistently increased model accuracy for widespread alliances. GLMs had higher accuracy in general.     

Formation of clastogenic lava flows during fissure eruption and scoria cone collapse: the 1986 eruption of Izu-Oshima Volcano, eastern Japan

The 1986 eruption of B fissure at Izu-Oshima Volcano, Japan, produced, among other products, one andesite and two basaltic andesite lava flows. Locally the three flows resemble vent-effused holocrystalline blocky or aa lava; however, remnant clast outlines can be identified at most localities, indicating that the flows were spatter fed or clastogenic. The basaltic andesite flows are interpreted to have formed by two main processes: (a) reconstitution of fountain-generated spatter around vent areas by syn-depositional agglutination and coalescence, followed by extensional non-particulate flow, and (b) syn-eruptive collapse of a rapidly built spatter and scoria cone by rotational slip and extensional sliding. These processes produced two morphologically distinct lobes in both flows by: (a) earlier non-particulate flow of agglutinate and coalesced spatter, which formed a thin lobe of rubbly aa lava (ca. 5 m thick) with characteristic open extension cracks revealing a homogeneous, holocrystalline interior, and (b) later scoria-cone collapse, which created a larger lobe of irregular thickness (<20 m) made of large detached blocks of scoria cone interpreted to have been rafted along on a flow of coalesced spatter. The source regions of these lava flows are characterized by horseshoe-shaped scarps (<30 m high), with meso-blocks (ca. 30 m in diameter) of bedded scoria at the base. One lava flow has a secondary lateral collapse zone with lower (ca. 7 m) scarps. Backward-tilted meso-blocks are interpreted to be the product of rotational slip, and forward-tilted blocks the result of simple toppling. Squeeze-ups of coalesced spatter along the leading edge of the meso-blocks indicate that coalescence occurred in the basal part of the scoria cone. This low-viscosity, coalesced spatter acted as a lubricating layer along which basal failure of the scoria cone occurred. Rotational sliding gave way to extensional translational sliding as the slide mass spread out onto the present caldera floor. Squeeze-ups concentrated at the distal margin indicate that the extensional regime changed to one of compression, probably as a result of cooling of the flow front. Sliding material piled up behind the slowing flow front, and coalesced spatter was squeezed up from the interior of the flow through fractures and between rafted blocks. The andesite flow, although morphologically similar to the other two flows, has a slightly different chemical composition which corresponds to the earliest stage of the eruption. It is a much smaller lava flow emitted from the base of the scoria cone 2 days after the eruption had ceased. This lava is interpreted to have been formed by post-depositional coalescence of spatter under the influence of the in-situ cooling rate and load pressure of the deposit. Extrusion occurred through the lower part of the scoria cone, and subsequent non-particulate flow of coalesced material produced a blocky and aa lava flow. The mechanisms of formation of the lava flows described may be more common during explosive eruptions of mafic magma than previously envisaged. Received: 30 May 1997 / Accepted: 19 May 1998     

Correlation of the Rockland ash bed,a 400,000-year-old stratigraphic marker in northern California and western Nevada,and implications for middle Pleistocene paleogeography of central California

Outcrops of an ash bed at several localities in northern California and western Nevada belong to a single air-fall ash layer, the informally named Rockland ash bed, dated at about 400,000 yr B.P. The informal Rockland pumice tuff breccia, a thick, coarse, compound tephra deposit southwest of Lassen Peak in northeastern California, is the near-source equivalent of the Rockland ash bed. Relations between initial thickness of the Rockland ash bed and distances to eruptive source suggest that the eruption was at least as great as that of the Mazama ash from Crater Lake, Oregon. Identification of the Rockland tephra allows temporal correlation of associated middle Pleistocene strata of diverse facies in separate depositional basins. Specifically, marine, littoral, estuarine, and fluvial strata of the Hookton and type Merced formations correlate with fluvial strata of the Santa Clara Formation and unnamed alluvium of Willits Valley and the Hollister area, in northwestern and west-central California, and with lacustrine beds of Mohawk Valley, fluvial deposits of the Red Bluff Formation of the eastern Sacramento Valley, and fluvial and glaciofluvial deposits of Fales Hot Spring, Carson City, and Washoe Valley areas in northeastern California and western Nevada. Stratigraphic relations of the Rockland ash bed and older tephra layers in the Great Valley and near San Francisco suggest that the southern Great Valley emerged above sea level about 2 my ago, that its southerly outlet to the ocean was closed sometime after about 2 my ago, and that drainage from the Great Valley to the ocean was established near the present, northerly outlet in the vicinity of San Francisco Bay about 0.6 my ago.     

Evaluating Errors in a Digital Vegetation Map with Forest Inventory Data and Accuracy Assessment Using Fuzzy Sets

In large-area mapping projects, existing reference data, often collected for a different purpose, are increasingly being used for map accuracy assessment. Multi-attribute digital vegetation maps have been developed for all National Forest lands in California (8.1 million ha). We developed decision rules that could be applied to quantitative Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data in order to score the fuzzy membership of plot locations in all possible map classes. We compare the accuracy of the vegetation map attributes estimated using this method to accuracy estimated from fuzzy class membership scores assigned by experts (inventory crews) during field work. Accuracy of the vegetation life form attribute was estimated to be higher when expert label assignments were used as reference data (76–87%), instead of FIA plot data (62–79%). This suggests that automated decision rules applied to detailed data from FIA plots, which have smaller area than map polygons, may systematically underestimate map accuracy. However, assignment of the actual map labels to FIA plot locations by inventory crews appears to be a robust method for using the FIA data for accuracy assessment.     

Achieving environmentally relevant organochlorine pesticide concentrations in eggs through maternal exposure in Alligator mississippiensis

Alligator mississippiensis eggs from organochlorine pesticide (OCP) contaminated sites in Florida exhibit high rates of embryonic mortality compared to reference sites (P < 0.05). The objective of the present study was to use captive adult alligators to test the hypotheses that maternal exposure to OCPs results in increased OCP concentrations in eggs, and that increased exposure is associated with increased embryonic mortality. A total of 24 adult alligators (8 males and 16 females) were housed in eight pens. Eight females in four pens were dosed with a mixture of p,p'-DDE, toxaphene, dieldrin, and chlordane at a rate of 0.2+/-0.01 mg/kg/day for 274+/-8 days. Treated females produced eggs containing higher OCP concentrations (12,814+/-813 ng/g yolk) than controls (38+/-4 ng/g yolk). Eggs of treated females exhibited decreased viability (13+/-22%) as compared to controls (45+/-20%). Results indicated that 0.6% of administered OCPs were maternally transferred to the eggs of American alligators, and that maternal exposure is associated with decreased egg/embryo viability in this species.     

Management application of an empirical model of sardine–climate regime shifts

In previous work, we show that accumulated anomalies of physical indices are proportional to California sardine landings and that the accumulated anomaly curves change the sign of their slope, showing maxima (minima) when climate is favorable (unfavorable) to successful completion of the sardine life cycle change. Here, we find unique time series characteristics of the periods when the climate changed for sardines in the 1930–2004 period. Only one 50–70 year cycle is examined but the consistency of the dominant signals in measurements taken independently within the sardine's environment at locations separated by thousands of kilometers, supports the argument that the events affecting the ocean-climate of the California Current region and consequently sardine life-cycle are large-scale and persist over multi-decadal periods. Year-to-year monitoring of the climate regime-state in the physical environment and its accumulating effects on sardine populations is also described. The ability to analyze climate shifts and monitor their effects on the sardine populations can reduce uncertainty in making resource management, social and business decisions. Possible effects of management decisions affecting transboundary fisheries issues within United States (US) and between the US and its Pacific neighbors are clarified. The methods presented will add an analysis of low-frequency events to the current management oriented analyses of interannual events, which are part of the existing Pacific Fishery Management Council sardine management plan.     

Sporormiella as a proxy for non-mammalian herbivores in island ecosystems

Spores of the dung-fungi Sporormiella are routinely used as a proxy for past megaherbivore biomass and to pinpoint the timing of extinctions. Further ecological insight can also be gained into the impacts that followed initial human arrival in a region through correlation of spore abundance with other proxies (e.g. pollen, charcoal). Currently, the use of Sporormiella as a palaeoecological proxy has been restricted to landmasses where large-herbivore guilds are dominated by mammals. Here, we use New Zealand as a case study to show that the method can also be applied effectively to islands dominated by large avian herbivores. We examine 44 dung samples from 7 localities to show that Sporormiella spores were widely distributed in the dung of endemic avian herbivores (South Island takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri), kakapo (Strigops habroptilus), and several species of extinct moa, identified by ancient DNA analysis). In addition, we show that Sporormiella spores in a forest soil core from the Murchison Mountains, South Island, accurately trace the post-settlement decline of native avian herbivores, and combined with high-resolution radiocarbon dating reveal severely reduced local herbivore populations by the late 17th Century AD. The spores also trace the subsequent spread of Red deer (Cervus elaphus) introduced to the area in the early 20th Century AD. Our results suggest Sporormiella spores may provide a useful new tool for examining extinctions on numerous islands where terrestrial herbivore guilds were dominated by birds or reptiles. Our findings also highlight the need to consider entire herbivore communities (including birds and reptiles) when examining Late Pleistocene continental Sporormiella records, where the focus has often been tracing the decline of populations of large mammals.