Bayesian modelling of environmental risk: example using a small area ecological study of coronary heart disease mortality in relation to modelled outdoor nitrogen oxide levels

Bayesian modelling of health risks in relation to environmental exposures offers advantages over conventional (non-Bayesian) modelling approaches. We report an example using research into whether, after controlling for different confounders, air pollution (NO_x) has a significant effect on coronary heart disease mortality, estimating the relative risk associated with different levels of exposure. We use small area data from Sheffield, England and describe how the data were assembled. We compare the results obtained using a generalized (Poisson) log-linear model with adjustment for overdispersion, with the results obtained using a hierarchical (Poisson) log-linear model with spatial random effects. Both classes of models were fitted using a Bayesian approach. Including spatial random effects models both overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation effects arising as a result of analysing data from small contiguous areas. The first modelling framework has been widely used, while the second provides a more rigorous model for hypothesis testing and risk estimation when data refer to small areas. When the models are fitted controlling only for the age and sex of the populations, the generalized log-linear model shows NO_x effects are significant at all levels, whereas the hierarchical log-linear model with spatial random effects shows significant effects only at higher levels. We then adjust for deprivation and smoking prevalence. Uncertainty in the estimates of smoking prevalence, arising because the data are based on samples, was accounted for through errors-in-variables modelling. NO_x effects apparently are significant at the two highest levels according to both modelling frameworks.

Long-term changes in polychaete assemblages of Botany Bay (NSW, Australia) following a dredging event

The long-term effects of marine aggregate dredging on near-shore benthic assemblages are still largely unknown, despite a global increase in demand for, and extraction of, marine aggregates. This study assessed the state of recovery of polychaete assemblages in Botany Bay, temperate NSW, Australia, at sites dredged for aggregate material more than 10 years previously. Sedimentary and faunal samples were collected from impact sites in Botany Bay, and from reference sites in nearby Pittwater estuary. This study was based on, and included data from, a study conducted by the Australian Museum at the same sites in the 2 years following cessation of dredging. Abundance, species richness and evenness of polychaetes, as well as overall polychaete assemblage structure, were compared between localities over time.     

Heat health planning: The importance of social and community factors

Extreme heat events frequently have adverse effects on population health. Within every population certain groups and individuals are at a greater risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality than others. While certain physiological characteristics (advanced age, chronic conditions, etc.) are known to increase the risk of illness and/or death during periods of extreme heat, the role of social and community level factors in aggravating or mitigating this risk is poorly understood. This paper reviews the literature on the social and community level factors that affect heat-related morbidity and mortality in order to identify shortfalls in current heat health response plans so that new approaches can be recommended. While social isolation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and neighborhood characteristics have all been identified as potential factors affecting the risk of heat-related illness and mortality, these are rarely, if ever, identified as heat health research priorities and are thus often neglected in heat emergency planning. Current research and programming practices are often prioritized from the top down where decisions are made at the federal level and research priorities are determined by national research bodies. This, unfortunately, may not allow enough flexibility to meet the needs of physically, socially and culturally diverse communities. A more socio-ecological approach to heat health research and planning would better allow for the identification of community level vulnerabilities and available resources and would encourage communities to work with regional or national partners to adapt response plans accordingly. The development of future plans should involve more partnerships at the community level so that social and community level factors that are currently overlooked may be included in heat health response strategies.     

Styles of subglacial glaciotectonic deformation within the context of the anglian ice-sheet

A substantial proportion of the glacial sediments of East Anglia, England, are chaotic and highly deformed. This has been attributed to (a) direct glaciotectonic deformation or (b) slumping of glaciomarine sediments. We show that interpretation (a) leads to a classification of subglacial glaciotectonic deposits into sites of ‘constructional deformation’, where little or no erosion of the preglacial deposits has occurred and styles of deformation are preserved moving up in the sequence, and ‘excavational deformation’, where substantial erosion of preglacial sediments has occurred and deformational styles are superimposed on each other. By using glaciological and geotechnical theory, we show that the expression of these deformational styles in East Anglia is a natural response to the stress fields imposed by the ice-sheet, and that in consequence their spatial relationships are explicable. The depth of deformation is related to the geotechnical properties of till and substrate, the stress and effective stress fields, and found to be consistent with observations.     

Preempting to nothing: neoliberalism and the fight to de/re-regulate agricultural biotechnology

On August 31th, 2006 the California Senate shelved SB1056, a bill which would have granted the State jurisdiction over the regulation of seed and nursery stock. Ostensibly proposed to ensure “a level playing field” for agricultural and food producers, SB1056 is one of a host of legislation drafted across the United States to preempt county and municipal bans on genetically engineered crops. In California, the heated struggle around “preemption” exemplifies the interweaving of neoliberal ideology with industry attempts to prevent an unfavorable regulatory environment, but more importantly the contingencies and vulnerabilities of this strategy. After reviewing SB1056’s history, this paper examines how a diverse opposition movement capitalized on the friction between the neoliberal arguments mobilized by supporters and dominant Californian political philosophies. The paper then highlights the ultimate effect of SB1056 through a critical exploration of current state and federal regulation and the entrenched interests of the California government. I argue that more than simply opening new spaces for accumulation, SB1056 would have muted opposition voices and transferred power to institutions financially committed to the technology’s commercialization.     

Firm finances, weather derivatives and geography

This paper considers some intellectual, practical and political dimensions of collaboration between human and physical geographers exploring how firms are using relatively new financial products - weather derivatives - to displace any costs of weather-related uncertainty and risk. The paper defines weather derivatives and indicates how they differ from weather insurance products before considering the geo-political, cultural and economic context for their creation. The paper concludes by reflecting on the challenges of research collaboration across the human-physical geography divide and suggests that while such initiatives may be undermined by a range of institutional and intellectual factors, conversations between physical and human geographers remain and are likely to become increasingly pertinent. The creation of a market in weather derivatives raises a host of urgent political and regulatory questions and the confluence of natural and social knowledges, co-existing within and through the geography academy, provides a constructive and creative basis from which to engage with this new market and wider discourses of uneven economic development and climate change.     

Analysis of simrad EM12 multibeam bathymetry and acoustic backscatter data for seafloor mapping,exemplified at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 45° N

The EM12 multibeam echosounder can record acoustic backscatter information as well as high resolution bathymetry. The dataset presented, from the axis of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 45° N, was the first EM12 survey of a mid-ocean ridge. This paper presents methods for utilising the backscatter information. Data processing enables the production of a mosaic of acoustic backscatter, and visualisation techniques are investigated to provide initial qualitative views of the combined backscatter and bathymetry datasets. The co-registration of the backscatter and bathymetry data enables quantitative analysis of their relationships. Various sites of different geological type have been selected and their angular acoustic backscattering relationships estimated, including the effect on backscatter of incidence angle, its regional variability with bottom type and the influence of bottom slope. Incidence angles and bottom type are shown to affect backscatter to a similar degree, while slopes appear to contribute little. The geometry of hull-mounted systems, such as the EM12, is significantly different from that of conventional sidescan sonars, such as GLORIA, and the backscatter images from the two types differ in various respects. Because of the wide variations in incidence angle that are common with hull-mounted systems, and the importance of incidence angle in determining backscatter strength, it is vital to consider the effect of incidence angle during interpretation.     

“Grey swan” storm surges pose a greater coastal flood hazard than climate change

Ocean Dynamics - In this paper, we show that over the next few decades, the natural variability of mid-latitude storm systems is likely to be a more important driver of coastal extreme sea levels...     

The Shape Distribution Of Kuiper Belt Objects

If we assume that the periodic brightness variations ina Kuiper Belt lightcurve are determined only by theiraspherical shapes and the observing geomtry, the fractionof detectable Kuiper Belt lightcurves and the lightcurveamplitude distribution can be used to constrain the shapesof Kuiper Belt objects. The results indicate that most KuiperBelt objects (～85%) have shapes that are close to spherical(a/b ≤ 1.5$), but there is a small but significant fraction(～12%) possessing highly aspherical shapes (a/b ≥ 1.7).The distribution cannot be well fitted by a gaussian and is betterapproximated by a power law.     

Porosity and density of ordinary chondrites: Clues to the formation of friable and porous ordinary chondrites

Abstract— Densities and porosities of meteorites are physical properties that can be used to infer characteristics of asteroid interiors. We report density and porosity measurements of 42 pieces of 30 ordinary chondrites and provide a quantification of the errors of the gas pycnometer method used in this study. Based on our measurements, we find that no significant correlation exists between porosity and petrologic grade, chemical group, sample mass, bulk and grain density, or shock level. To investigate variations in porosity and density between pieces of a meteorite, we examined stones from two showers, Holbrook and Pultusk. Examination of nine samples of Holbrook suggests relative homogeneity in porosity and density between pieces of this shower. Measurements of three samples of Pultusk show homogeneity in bulk density, in contrast to Wilkison and Robinson (2000), a study that reported significant variations in bulk density between 11 samples of Pultusk. Finally, examination of two friable ordinary chondrites, Bjurböle and Allegan, reveal variability in friability and porosity among pieces of the same fall. We suggest that friable ordinary chondrites may have formed in a regolith or fault zone of an asteroid.