Evidence of Self‐Organized Criticality in riverbank mass failures: a matter of perspective?

A growing body of field, theoretical and numerical modelling studies suggests that predicting river response to even major changes in input variables is difficult. Rivers are seen to adjust rapidly and variably through time and space as well as changing independently of major driving variables. Concepts such as Self‐Organized Criticality (SOC) are considered to better reflect the complex interactions and adjustments occurring in systems than traditional approaches of cause and effect. This study tests the hypothesis that riverbank mass failures which occurred both prior to, and during, an extreme flood event in southeast Queensland (SEQ) in 2011 are a manifestation of SOC. Each wet‐flow failure is somewhat analogous to the ‘avalanche’ described in the initial sand‐pile experiments of Bak et al. (Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4), 381–384) and, due to the use of multitemporal LiDAR, the time period of instability can be effectively constrained to that surrounding the flood event. The data is examined with respect to the key factors thought to be significant in evaluating the existence of SOC including; non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events within the system; an inverse power‐law relation between the magnitude and frequency of the events; the existence of a critical state to which the system readjusts after a disturbance; the existence of a cascading processes mechanism by which the same process can initiate both low‐magnitude and high‐magnitude events. While there was a significant change in the frequency of mass failures pre‐ and post‐flood, suggesting non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events, the data did not fit an inverse power‐law within acceptable probability and other models were found to fit the data better. Likewise, determining a single ‘critical’ state is problematic when a variety of feedbacks and multiple modes of adjustment are likely to have operated throughout this high magnitude event. Overall, the extent to which the data supports a self‐organized critical state is variable and highly dependent upon inferential arguments. Investigating the existence of SOC, however, provided results and insights that are useful to the management and future prediction of these features. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Oxygen and hydrogen in the primitive atmosphere

From time to time there appears in the literature the assertion that photolysis of water vapor could have maintained an appreciable concentration of oxygen in the primitive (prebiological) atmosphere. The implausibility of this assertion is argued in this paper.By itself, photolysis does not provide a source of oxygen because it is usually followed by recombination of the products of photolysis. Only the escape to space (at a much smaller rate) of the hydrogen produced by photolysis of water results in a net source of oxygen. The oxidation state of the primitive atmosphere depended on the relative magnitudes of this net source of oxygen and a volcanic source of hydrogen and other reduced gases. Today the volcanic source of reduced gases is approximately equal to the oxygen source provided by photolysis followed by escape. The oxygen source depends on the mixing ratio of water vapor in the stratosphere, which ultimately determines the rate of escape of hydrogen produced from water vapor. Its magnitude may not have been very different in the past. The volcanic source of hydrogen, on the other hand, is likely to have been much larger when the earth was tectonically young. Hydrogen was therefore released to the primitive atmosphere more rapidly than oxygen, probably. Photochemical reactions with the excess hydrogen maintained oxygen mixing ratios at negligibly small levels. The hydrogen mixing ratio was determined by a balance between the volcanic source (reduced by recombination with oxygen) and escape to space.In time, either because of decline of the volcanic source of hydrogen or because of addition of a biological source of oxygen, the input of oxygen to the atmosphere rose above the input of hydrogen. The oxidation state of the atmosphere changed rapidly. Volcanic hydrogen was now consumed by photochemical reactions with excess oxygen, while the oxygen mixing ratio was determined by a balance between the source (reduced by recombination with volcanic hydrogen) and consumption in reactions with reduced material at the surface.     

Assessing selected natural and anthropogenic impacts on freshwater lens morphology on small barrier Islands: Dog Island and St. George Island, Florida, USA

Abstract The freshwater lens morphologies of the barrier islands Dog Island and St. George Island on the panhandle coast of Florida (FL), USA, are controlled to varying degrees by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Variable-density groundwater flow models confirm that spatial variability of recharge values can account for the observed lens asymmetry on these islands. The depth to the base of the lens does not vary significantly seasonally. Human development has altered recharge patterns in some areas, locally thinning the freshwater lens. Aqueduct water supply to St. George Island represents 7–25% of natural recharge; higher recharge rates are required to simulate the lens on St. George Island than on Dog Island. On both islands, coastal erosion rates are sufficiently rapid that the freshwater lens may not be in equilibrium with current boundary conditions.

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Resumen Las morfologías de los lentes de agua dulce en las islas de barrera: Islas Dog y St. George, en la costa alargada y estrecha de Florida, EUA, están controladas en diferentes grados por factores antropogénicos y naturales. Los modelos de flujo con densidad variable del agua subterránea, confirman que la variabilidad espacial de los valores de recarga, pueden ser la causa de la asimetría observada en los lentes de estas islas. La profundidad hasta la base de los lentes no varía significativamente con las estaciones climáticas. El desarrollo humano ha alterado las tendencias de recarga en algunas áreas, causando adelgazamiento local de los lentes de agua dulce. El abastecimiento de agua del acueducto en la Isla St. George, representa entre 7% y 25% de la recarga natural; por otro lado se necesitan cantidades mayores de recarga para simular los lentes en la Isla St. George que en la Isla Dog. En ambas islas, las tasas de erosión costera son tan rápidas, que las lentes de agua dulce podrían no estar en equilibrio con las condiciones actuales de frontera.

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Résumé La morphologie des lentilles deau douce des îles de Dog et de St. George, situés dans le district côtier de Florida-Etats Unis est contrôlé dans une mesure variable par des facteurs naturelles et humaines. Les modèles découlement à densité variable des eaux souterraines confirment que la variation spatiale de la recharge peut expliquer les asymétries observées des lentilles des cettes îles. La profondeur des lentilles ne présente pas des variations saisonnières importantes. Les activités humaines ont modifié la recharge dans certaines zones en amincissant localement les lentilles deau douce. Lalimentation en eaux de lîle de St. George représente 7–25% de la recharge naturelle; pour simuler les lentilles de lîle de Dog il a été nécessaire dintroduire des valeurs plus élevées de la recharge par rapport aux ceux utilisés pour lîle de St. George. Pour les deux îles lérosion côtière est assez rapide ainsi que les lentilles de eau douce ne sont pas en équilibre avec les conditions à la frontière.

     

A numerical study of the nocturnal heat island over a medium-sized mid-latitude city (Columbus,Ohio)

A numerical investigation is conducted of the nocturnal heat island over Columbus, Ohio, a relatively flat mid-latitude city. Specifically, a cross-sectional steady-state numerical model to simulate the (thermal) structure of the nocturnal urban boundary layer is developed from a one-dimensional, time-dependent model due to Estoque. The model is applied to Columbus for special periods in September 1968 and March 1969 during which comparable experimental data were collected. The numerical simulations agree well with the observed data with respect to the detailed spatial form of the surface-based thermal boundary layer across the city. The use of the model for other metropolitan areas, for ascertaining the relative effect of city size and building geometry on the development of the thermal boundary layer, and for determining the effect of alternate land-use strategies on the thermal stratification are also discussed.Digest of portion of a dissertation submitted to the Pennsylvania State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.Presented in part at the Air Pollution, Turbulence and Diffusion Symposium, Las Cruces, New Mexico, 7–10 December 1971.On assignment from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce.     

Amino acids in the Murchison meteorite

Continued investigation of the Murchison meteorite by gas chromatography combined with mass spectrometry has led to the characterization of at least 17 amino acids in addition to the 18 identified in earlier work. The total population consists of a wide variety of linear and cyclic difunctional and polyfunctional amino acids, of which the linear difunctional amino acids show a general decrease in concentration as the number of carbon atoms in the amino acid molecule increases. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the amino acids are present as the result of an extraterrestrial, abiotic synthesis.     

Compliance costs and the small fisher: A study of exiters from the New Zealand fishery

Over 3000 predominantly small-scale fishers have exited the New Zealand's quota management system (QMS) between its inception in 1986 and 2000. This study, based on the Ministry of Fisheries database and a questionnaire sent to the exiters, establishes that compliance costs in general, and those specifically related to the QMS, were one of the most consistent reasons for exit. Uncertainty about future QMS policy and the high cost of quota were also significant factors. It appears that the small fishers’ perception of high compliance cost can be supported by industry data.     

Incorporation,distribution and fate of saturated petroleum hydrocarbons in sediments from a controlled marine ecosystem

A simulation of a chronic input of petroleum into an estuarine environment was investigated using the facilities at the Marine Ecosystems Research Laboratory at the University of Rhode Island. An oil-water dispersion of No. 2 fuel oil was added to the system (twice weekly for 24 weeks) and the saturated hydrocarbons from this oil were measured in suspended material and sediments. After the initial chronic oil addition, trace amounts of hydrocarbons were detected in the sediments within two weeks, but substantial accumulation was not detected for approximately 135 days. The oil appeared to enter the sediment via the suspended material, with most of the saturated hydrocarbons associated with smaller size sediment particles (< 45 μm to > 0·3 μm). With time, the fuel oil saturated hydrocarbons in the sediments were mixed to a depth of 3 to 4 cm. Although only 12% of the total saturated hydrocarbons added to the system were found in the sediments, these hydrocarbons appear to be relatively stable and were still detectable in these sediments for at least six months after the last oil addition.     

A 2000-yr reconstruction of air temperature in the Great Basin of the United States with specific reference to the Medieval Climatic Anomaly

A sediment core representing the past two millennia was recovered from Stella Lake in the Snake Range of the central Great Basin in Nevada. The core was analyzed for sub-fossil chironomids and sediment organic content. A quantitative reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed using a regional training set and a chironomid-based WA-PLS inference model (r²_jack = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). The chironomid-based MJAT reconstruction suggests that the interval between AD 900 and AD 1300, corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), was characterized by MJAT elevated 1.0°C above the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA), but likely not as warm as recent conditions. Comparison of the Stella Lake temperature reconstruction to previously published paleoclimate records from this region indicates that the temperature fluctuations inferred to have occurred at Stella Lake between AD 900 and AD 1300 correspond to regional records documenting hydroclimate variability during the MCA interval. The Stella Lake record provides evidence that elevated summer temperature contributed to the increased aridity that characterized the western United States during the MCA.     

The Location of Office Space in the Metropolitan Service Economy of the United States, 1985–1990

As the economic base of most American metropolitan areas relies increasingly on services, office industries have shifted to a more pivotal role in the new metropolitan service economy. Using primary office-space usage data of the time period 1985–1990, the changing spatial patterns of this new metropolitan service economy are investigated. It is found that the primary office activities are predominantly concentrated in a relatively small number of the largest metropolitan areas. However, an emerging spatial dispersion in primary office activities is also exhibited. Such dispersion is extremely strong at the upper end of the urban hierarchy. The Sunbelt-Snowbelt dichotomy fails to reveal any differences in the growth pattern of the new metropolitan service economy. A more diversified growth pattern of primary office activities is observed. Concentrated dispersion is the major spatial characteristic of this new metropolitan service economy.     

Hammond Hill Research Catchment: Supporting hydrologic investigations of rooting zone and vegetation water dynamics under climate change

The Hammond Hill Research Catchment (HH) is a small (120 ha), temperate, second order tributary to Six Mile Creek, Cayuga Lake, and the Great Lakes (42.42°, −76.32°). The HH has been monitored since January 2017 for the purpose of understanding how recent infiltration mixes with antecedent soil water on hillslope forest floors and the spatial and temporal patterns of Root Water Uptake (RWU) by temperate northeastern US tree species (eastern hemlock [Tsuga canadensis], American beech [Fagus grandifolia], and sugar maple [Acer saccharum]). These data are informing us about the hydrologic consequences of anticipated tree species composition change and supporting the development of more refined ecohydrological models. The glaciated catchment is underlain by a shallow confining siltstone layer (1–1.5 m depth) and densely covered with an approximately 60 year old regrowth mixed species forest of hemlock, beech, and other deciduous tree species common to the northeastern US. Current datasets from the HH include precipitation snow water equivalent, discharge, and associated isotopic water compositions, δ²H & δ¹⁸O. Measurements of (top 10 cm) soil water content, as well as bulk soil water and hemlock and beech xylem isotopic compositions are made at several locations across a topographic wetness gradient. The near-term role of the HH is to support an understanding of the environmental and ecological drivers of plant RWU competition. All data from the HH are publicly available.