Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Effect of discharge on the chlorophylla distribution in the tidally-influenced Potomac River

In the tidal Potomac River, high river discharges during the spring are associated with high chlorophylla concentrations in the following in the following summer, assuming that summertime light and temperature conditions are favorable. Spring floods deliver large loads of particulate N and P to the tidal river. This particulate N and P could be mineralized by bacteria to inorganic N and P and released to the water column where it is available for phytoplankton use during summertime. However, during the study period relatively low concentrations of chlorophylla (less than 50 μg l^?1 occurred in the tidal river if average monthly discharge during July or August exceeded 200 m³s^?1. Discharge and other conditions combined to produce conditions favorable for nuisance levels of chlorophylla (greater than 100 μg l^?1 approximately one year out of four. Chlorophylla maxima occurred in the Potomac River transition zone and estuary during late winter (dinoflagellates) and spring (diatoms). Typical seasonal peak concentrations were achieved at discharges as high as 970 m³ s^?1, but sustained discharges greater than 1,100 m³ s^?1 retarded development. Optimum growth conditions occurred following runoff events of 10 to 15 d duration which produced transit times to the transition zone of 7 to 10 d. Wet years with numerous moderate-sized runoff events, such as 1980, tend to produce greater biomass in the transition zone and estuary than do dry years such as 1981.     

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Fault-controlled dolomitization at Swan Hills Simonette oil field (Devonian), deep basin west-central Alberta, Canada

The partly dolomitized Swan Hills Formation (Middle‐Upper Devonian) in the Simonette oil field of west‐central Alberta underwent a complex diagenetic history, which occurred in environments ranging from near surface to deep (>2500 m) burial. Five petrographically and geochemically distinct dolomites that include both cementing and replacive varieties post‐date stylolites in limestones (depths >500 m). These include early planar varieties and later saddle dolomites. Fluid inclusion data from saddle dolomite cements (T_h=137–190 °C) suggest that some precipitated at burial temperatures higher than the temperatures indicated by reflectance data (T_peak=160 °C). Thus, at least some dolomitizing fluids were ‘hydrothermal’. Fluorescence microscopy identified three populations of primary hydrocarbon‐bearing fluid inclusions and confirms that saddle dolomitization overlapped with Upper Cretaceous oil migration. The source of early dolomitizing fluids probably was Devonian or Mississippian seawater that was mixed with a more ⁸⁷Sr‐rich fluid. Fabric‐destructive and fabric‐preserving dolostones are over 35 m thick in the Swan Hills buildup and basal platform adjacent to faults, thinning to less than 10 cm thick in the buildup between 5 and 8 km away from the faults. This ‘plume‐like’ geometry suggests that early and late dolomitization events were fault controlled. Late diagenetic fluids were, in part, derived from the crystalline basement or Palaeozoic siliciclastic aquifers, based on ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values up to 0·7370 from saddle dolomite, calcite and sphalerite cements, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb of 22·86 from galena samples. Flow of dolomitizing and mineralizing fluids occurred during burial greater than 500 m, both vertically along reactivated faults and laterally in the buildup along units that retained primary and/or secondary porosity.     

Significance of ichnofossils to genetic stratigraphy--Examples from the Cretaceous of Alberta, Canada

Trace fossils represent both sedimentological and paleontological entities, representing a unique blending of potential environmental indicators in the rock record. Trace fossils and trace fossil suites can be employed effectively to aid in the recognition of various discontinuity types and to assist in their genetic interpretation. Ichnology may be employed to resolve surfaces of stratigraphic significance in two main ways: 1) through the identification of discontinuities using substrate-controlled ichnofacies, and 2) through careful analysis of vertical softground (penecontemporaneous) ichnologic successions (analogous to facies successions). Ichnological analysis is a valuable tool in genetic stratigraphic studies. Integrating the data derived from substrate-controlled ichnofacies with paleoecological data from vertical ichnologic successions greatly enhances the recognition and interpretation of a wide variety of stratigraphic surfaces. When this is coupled with conventional facies analysis and sequence stratigraphy, a powerful approach to the interpretation of the rock record is generated.     

Effects of rainfall,geomorphological and geometrical variables on vulnerability of the lower Mississippi River levee system to slump slides

This study investigated the importance of rainfall and various geomorphological and geometrical factors to the vulnerability of earthen levees to slump slides. The study was performed using a database including 34 slump slides that occurred in the lower Mississippi River levee system from 2008 to 2009. The impact of rainfall within the six months prior to slide occurrence was studied for 23 slides for which an accurate occurrence date was available. Several variables were used to develop a logistic regression model to predict the probability of slump slide occurrence. The proposed model was verified for both slide and non-slide cases. The regression analysis depicts the impact of channel width, river sinuosity index, riverbank erosion, channel shape condition and distance to river. Excluding the sinuosity index, the impact of the other independent variables examined was found to be significant. Occurrence of riverbank erosion around the slide locations was the most significant predictor factor. A channel width of less than 1000?m was ranked as the second most significant variable. The proposed model can aid in locating high-risk areas on levees in order to take prompt protective measures, increase monitoring efforts and enable early response under emergency conditions.     

New constraints on the provenance of hopanoids in the marine geologic record: Bacteriohopanepolyols in marine suboxic and anoxic environments

The abundance and structural diversity of bacteriohopanepolyols (BHPs) was examined in three marine pelagic environments that are characterized by strong vertical redox gradients and water column suboxia or anoxia. The abundance and, in most instances, structural diversity of BHPs was highest at depths where conditions were suboxic or anoxic. However, the majority of the BHP structures that were identified are environmentally cosmopolitan and their biological sources are presently not well constrained. An isomer of bacteriohopanetetrol (denoted BHT II) was observed at all three study sites in association with anoxic and suboxic conditions within the water column. Based on the absence of BHT II from terrigenous and oxic marine environments studied to date, and its strong association with suboxic and anoxic marine pelagic environments, we propose that BHT II is a promising candidate biomarker for water column suboxia and anoxia in the marine geologic record. The molecular fingerprint of BHPs in suspended and sinking particles and core-top sediments indicates that hopanoids produced within the water column are exported to marine sediments and that their biological source is most likely associated with settling particles and not the free-water phase. Based on our observations, BHPs likely represent an important input to the sedimentary hopanoid inventory, particularly in upwelling environments characterized by pelagic oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) and anoxic marine basins.     

加里福尼亚南部岸外泥火山的甲烷成因方解石、13C亏损的双壳类贝壳以及气水合物

沿大陆边缘的气体和流体通量与构造—沉积过程和(产生冷泉、温泉和甲烷水合物的)物化条件有关(如Obzhirov等,2004)。我们对水合物进行了深入研究,因为它对块体坡移、能源、全球气候突然变化以及全球的碳质量平衡具有潜在的贡献。其中冷泉尤其重要,因为其与大的气体和流体通量、     

Long-Term Changes in Water Quality and Productivity in the Patuxent River Estuary: 1985 to 2003

We conducted a quantitative assessment of estuarine ecosystem responses to reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loading from sewage treatment facilities and to variability in freshwater flow and nonpoint nutrient inputs to the Patuxent River estuary. We analyzed a 19-year dataset of water quality conditions, nutrient loading, and climatic forcing for three estuarine regions and also computed monthly rates of net production of dissolved O₂ and physical transport of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) using a salt- and water-balance model. Point-source loading of DIN and DIP to the estuary declined by 40–60% following upgrades to sewage treatment plants and correlated with parallel decreases in DIN and DIP concentrations throughout the Patuxent. Reduced point-source nutrient loading and concentration resulted in declines in phytoplankton chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and light-saturated carbon fixation, as well as in bottom-layer O₂ consumption for upper regions of the estuary. Despite significant reductions in seaward N transport from the middle to lower estuary, chl-a, turbidity, and surface-layer net O₂ production increased in the lower estuary, especially during summer. This degradation of water quality in the lower estuary appears to be linked to a trend of increasing net inputs of DIN into the estuary from Chesapeake Bay and to above-average river flow during the mid-1990s. In addition, increased abundance of Mnemiopsis leidyi significantly reduced copepod abundance during summer from 1990 to 2002, which favored increases in chl-a and allowed a shift in total N partitioning from DIN to particulate organic nitrogen. These analyses illustrate (1) the value of long-term monitoring data, (2) the need for regional scale nutrient management that includes integrated estuarine systems, and (3) the potential water quality impacts of altered coastal food webs.     

A Review of “Hurricanes of the Gulf of Mexico”

Books reviewed:

Bassin, Mark, Imperial Visions: Nationalist Imagination and Geographical Expansion in the Russian Far East, 1840 – 1865

Shortridge, James R., Our Town on the Plains: J. J. Pennell's Photographs of Junction City, Kansas, 1893 – 1922

Jakle, John A. and Sculle, Keith A., Fast Food: Roadside Restaurants in the Automobile Age

Boeschenstein, Walter, Historic American Towns along the Atlantic Coast

McKee, Jesse O., Ethnicity in Contemporary America: A Geographical Appraisal

Luciuk, Lubomyr Y., Searching for Place: Ukrainian Displaced Persons, Ottawa, and the Migration of Memory

Hausladen, Gary, Places for Dead Bodies

Phillips, Richard, Watt, Diane and Shuttleton, David, De-Centering Sexualities: Politics and Representations beyond the Metropolis

Goldin, Liliana R., Identities on the Move, Transnational Processes in North America and the Caribbean Basin

McDonald, David A., On Borders: Perspectives on International Migration in Southern Africa

Fox, Roddy and Rowntree, Kate, The Geography of South Africa in a Changing World

Takeuchi, Keiichi, Modern Japanese Geography: An Intellectual History

Amery, Hussein A., and Wolf, Aaron T., Water in the Middle East: A Geography of Peace

Karl, Thomas R., Nicholls, Neville and Ghazi, Anver, Weather and Climate Extremes: Changes, Variations, and a Perspective from the Insurance Industry

Pittman, Blair, Texas Caves