Development of an observational error model

In calculating the orbit of a minor planet with a least-squares algorithm, current practice is to assume that all observations of a given era have the same uncertainty, and that the errors in these observations are uncorrelated. These assumptions are unrealistic; and they lead to sub-optimal orbits.Our objective is to develop and validate an observational error model that provides realistic estimates of the uncertainties and correlations in asteroid observations. When used to populate the covariance matrix of the least-squares algorithm, the resulting orbits are shown to more accurately and precisely represent asteroid trajectories.     

The Martian hydrologic cycle: Effects of CO2 mass flux on global water distribution

The Martian CO₂ cycle, which includes the seasonal condensation and subsequent sublimation of up to 30% of the planet's atmosphere, produces meridional winds due to the consequent mass flux of CO₂. These winds currently display strong seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries due to the large asymmetries in the distribution of insolation on Mars. It is proposed that asymmetric meridional advection of water vapor on the planet due to these CO₂ condensation winds is capable of explaining the observed dessication of Mars' south polar region at the current time. A simple model for water vapor transport is used to verify this hypothesis and to speculate on the effects of changes in orbital parameters on the seasonal water cycle.     

Phytoplankton production and nutrient distributions in a subtropical estuary: Importance of freshwater flow

The relationships between phytoplankton productivity, nutrient distributions, and freshwater flow were examined in a seasonal study conducted in Escambia Bay, Florida, USA, located in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Five sites oriented along the salinity gradient were sampled 24 times over the 28-mo period from 1999 to 2001. Water column profiles of temperature and salinity were measured along with surface chlorophyll and surface inorganic nutrient concentrations. Primary productivity was measured at 2 sites on 11 dates, and estimated for the remaining dates and sites using an empirical regression model relating phytoplankton net production to the product of chlorophyll, euphotic zone depth, and daily solar insolation. Freshwater flow into the system varied markedly over the study period with record low flow during 2000, a flood event in March 2001, and subsequent resumption of normal flow. Flushing times ranged from 1 d during the flood to 20 d during the drought. Freshwater input strongly affected surface salinity distributions, nutrient flux, chlorophyll, and primary productivity. The flood caused high turbidity and rapid flushing, severely reducing phytoplankton production and biomass accumulation. Following the flood, phytoplankton biomass and productivity sharply increased. Analysis of nutrient distributions suggested Escambia Bay phytoplankton alternated between phosphorus limitation during normal flow and nitrogen limitation during low flow periods. This study found that Escambia Bay is a moderately productive estuary, with an average annual integrated phytoplankton production rate of 290 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹.     

On the evolution of interacting,magnetized, galactic plasmas

The advent of three-dimensional, electromagnetic, and fully relativistic particle simulations allows a detailed study of a magnetized, rotating plasma, galaxy model. When two such models are simulated, an interaction yielding results resembling observational data from double radio sources, including the emission of synchrotron radiation, are obtained. Simulation derived morphologies, radiation intensities, frequency spectra, and isophote patterns are directly compared to observations. The constituent plasma parameters associated with the source Cygnus A are found to ben _e =1.8×10^?3 cm^?3,T=2.8 keV,B=20–30 gamma, with a small population of electrons accelerated to GeV energies by a rotation induced electric field. The results of these simulations, involving a computational resource of five CDC 7600 and five Cray-1 computers, strongly supports an inhomogeneous version of the Klein world model.     

Modeling the 2D behavior of dry‐stone retaining walls by a fully discrete element method

The dry‐stone retaining walls (DSRW) have been tipped as a promising solution for sustainable development. However, before recently, their behavior is relatively obscure. In this study, discrete element method (DEM) approach was applied to simulate the plane strain failure of these walls. A commercial DEM package (PFC2D™) was used throughout this study. The authors used a fully discrete approach; thus, both the wall and the backfill were modeled as discrete elements. The methodology for obtaining the micromechanical parameters was discussed in detail; this includes the three mechanical sub‐systems of DSRWs: wall, backfill and interface. The models were loaded progressively until failure, and then the results were compared with the full‐scale experimental results where the walls were loaded, respectively, with hydrostatic load and backfill. Despite its complexity and its intensive calculation time, DEM model can then be used to validate a more simplified approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Design of backfilled thin-seam coal pillars using earth pressure theory

In underground coal mining any increase in coal recovery rate is dependent on a decrease in pillar size. Backfilling is one way of reducing the required size of pillars and hence the volume of coal left underground. Therefore any comparisons made between a self-supported mine layout and backfill supported mine layout are based directly on pillar design. The most effective way to examine the effect of backfill on pillar support, and subsequently the rate of recovery, would be to incorporate the mechanisms of backfill support directly into the current design procedure for coal pillars. This paper presents a review of the mechanics of backfill support, a method of estimating the magnitude of that support based on earth pressure theory, and an example that incorporates backfill support into current coal pillar design.     

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.