Antecedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall both contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in British Columbia. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide frequencies.In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short-term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Columbia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating statistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall.The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenarios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in simulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means.The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century. 相似文献
In oxic environments contaminated with arsenate (As(V)), small polyhydroxycarboxylates such as citrate may impact the structure of precipitating ferrihydrite (Fh) and thus the surface speciation of As(V). In this study, ‘2-line’ Fh was precipitated from ferric nitrate solutions that were neutralized to pH 6.5 in the presence of increasing citrate concentrations and in the absence or presence of As(V). The initial citrate/Fe and As/Fe ratios were 0-50 mol% and 5 mol%, respectively. The reaction products, enriched with up to 0.32 mol citrate per mole Fe, were characterized by X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and Fe and As K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Citrate decreased the particle size of Fh by impairing the polymerization of Fe(O,OH)6 octahedra via edge and corner linkages. In the presence of citrate and As(V), coordination numbers of Fe decreased by up to 28% relative to pure Fh. Citrate significantly reduced the static disorder of Fe-O bonds, implying a decreased octahedral distortion in Fh. Mean bond distances in Fh were not affected by citrate and remained constant within error at 1.98 Å for Fe-O, 3.03 Å for Fe-Fe1, and 3.45 Å for Fe-Fe2. Likewise, citrate had no effect on the As-Fe (3.31 Å) bond distance in As(V) coprecipitated with Fh. The As K-edge EXAFS data comply with the formation of (i) only monodentate binuclear (2C) As(V) surface complexes and (ii) combinations of 2C, monodentate mononuclear (1V), and outersphere As(V) surface complexes. Our results suggest that increasing citrate concentrations led to a decreasing 1V/2C ratio and/or that citrate increasingly impaired the formation of outersphere As(V) complexes. Moreover, citrate stabilized colloidal suspensions of Fh (pH 4.3-6.6, I ∼0.45 M) and reduced Fh formation at the expense of soluble Fe(III)-citrate complexes. At initial citrate/Fe ratios ?25 mol%, between 8% and 41% of total Fe was bound in Fe(III)-citrate complexes after Fh formation. Polynuclear Fe(III)-citrate species were found to bind As(V) via surface complexes indistinguishable by EXAFS from those of As(V) adsorbed to or coprecipitated with Fh. Our study implies that low molecular weight polyhydroxycarboxylates may enhance the mobility of As(V) in aqueous systems of high ionic strength (e.g., neutralizing acid mine drainage) by colloidal stabilization of suspended Fh particles and the formation of ternary As(V) complexes. 相似文献
The distribution of Cenozoic subsidence across Northeast Atlantic volcanic margins have been evaluated to define the width of the rift zone and magnitude of extensional deformation. The subsidence profiles are corrected for the effects of lower-crustal magmatic bodies emplaced during continental break-up. The dimensions of the bodies have been derived from the crustal velocity structure. The width of the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene Northeast Atlantic rift zone was more than 300 km, and the lithospheric extension factor increases gradually towards the line of continental separation. A large number of high-quality seismic reflection data tied to scientific and commercial wells reveals that the initiation of extensional deformation preceded continental separation by ˜ 18 m.y. on the Vøring margin, off Norway. These results show that the Northeast Atlantic volcanic margins, commonly considered as typical volcanic margins indeed, have similar dimensions as non-volcanic margins, and as continental rifts. Thus, these margins contrast significantly with previously suggested evolutionary models based on narrow rift zones and formation during rapid lithospheric failure. The wide rift is compatible with volume of igneous rocks observed along these margins, and with a thermal anomaly similar to that associated with production of Northeast Atlantic oceanic lithosphere. 相似文献
The development and age of the present geomorphology and superficial material of the Coloradofjella plateau, Spitsbergen, have been investigated through field surveying and laboratory sediment analyses. The focus was specifically on the role of glacial erosion and periglacial processes. The summit plain is deeply incised with large V-shaped valleys. Extensive networks of ice wedge polygons indicate that the fine-grained regolith is at least a few metres thick. An abundance of coarse-grained gabbroid erratics, clearly derived from sources further to the east, are distributed over parts of the summit plain. A vertical-walled dolerite dyke protruding up to 4 m above the adjacent surface shows no sign of glacial erosion. Our findings confirm that the present bedrock geomorphology and regolith in the summit plain survived at least the Late Weichselian glaciation. This is best explained by the ice sheet having been cold-based throughout its existence on the summit plain. Cold-based conditions imply that permafrost survived the last glacial cover. Based on the geomorphic evidence and estimates of Late Cenozoic erosion, we suggest that the present summit plains roughly represent the remains of a preglacial surface. 相似文献
Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-flow warning system that enables residents to reduce their personal risk for loss of life through timely evacuation. This paper describes Canada??s first real-time debris-flow warning system which has been operated for 2 years for the District of North Vancouver. The system was developed based on discriminant function analyses of 20 hydrometric input variables consisting of antecedent rainfall and storm rainfall intensities for a total of 63 storms. Of these 27 resulted in shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, while 36 storms were sampled that did not reportedly result in debris flows. The discriminant function analysis identified as the three most significant variables: the 4-week antecedent rainfall, the 2-day antecedent rainfall, and the 48-h rainfall intensity during the landslide-triggering storm. Discriminant functions were developed and tested for robustness against a nearby rain gauge dataset. The resulting classification functions provide a measure for the likelihood of debris-flow initiation. Several system complexities were added to render the classification functions into a usable and defensible warning system. This involved the addition of various functionality criteria such as not skipping warning levels, providing sufficient warning time before debris flows would occur, and hourly adjustment of actual rainfall vs. predicted rainfall since predicted rainfall is not error-free. After numerous iterations that involved warning threshold and cancelation refinements and further model calibrations, an optimal solution was found that best matches the actual debris-flow data record. Back-calculation of the model??s 21-year record confirmed that 76% of all debris flows would have occurred during warning or severe warning levels. Adding the past 2 years of system operation, this percentage increases marginally to 77%. With respect to the District of North Vancouver boundaries, all debris flows occur during Warning and Severe Warnings emphasizing the validity of the system to the area for which it was intended. To operate the system, real-time rainfall data are obtained from a rain gauge in the District of North Vancouver. Antecedent rainfall is automatically calculated as a sliding time window for the 4-week and 2-day periods every hour. The predicted 48-h storm rainfall data are provided by the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre at the Earth and Ocean Science Department at the University of British Columbia and is updated every hour as rainfall is recorded during a given storm. The warning system differentiates five different stages: no watch, watch level 1 (the warning level is unlikely to be reached), watch level 2 (the warning level is likely to be reached), warning, and severe warning. The debris-flow warning system has operated from October 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010 and October 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011. Fortunately, we were able to evaluate model performance because the exact times of debris flows during November 2009 and January 2010 were recorded. In both cases, the debris flows did not only occur during the warning level but coincided with peaks in the warning graphs. Furthermore, four debris flows occurred during a warning period in November 2009 in the Metro Vancouver watershed though their exact time of day is unknown. The warning level was reached 13 times, and in four of these cases, debris flows were recorded in the study area. One debris flow was recorded during watch II level. There was no severe warning during the 2 years of operation. The current warning level during the wet season (October to April) is accessible via District of North Vancouver??s homepage (www.dnv.org) and by automated telephone message during the rainy season. 相似文献
Many west coastal and northern Norwegian rivers run through deep, confined valleys with permeable layers of glacial and alluvial deposits. Groundwater flows through these permeable layers and enter lakes and rivers as underwater seepage and springs. Groundwater inflow to inland Norwegian rivers may constitute 40–100% of total water discharge during low flow periods in late summer and winter. Juvenile salmonids may take advantage of groundwater upwellings and actively seek out such patches. In regulated rivers groundwater influx may create refuges during low flow or hydropeaking episodes. The importance of groundwater for salmon redd site selection and egg survival is also clear, although less known and documented in regulated rivers.Eggs of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are deposited in redds in river bed gravels lacking fine sediments and with high oxygen levels. Egg development is therefore dependent on the interaction of a number of environmental factors such as groundwater influx, oxygen and temperature. Atlantic salmon in the regulated River Suldalslågen, Western Norway, spawn relatively late compared to other Norwegian rivers, with a peak in early January. Newly emerged fry are found from the end of May to the beginning of June, i.e. “swim up” one month earlier than expected using models for egg and alevin development and river water temperatures. The most plausible explanation is that groundwater has a higher and more stable temperature than surface river water. In field experiments, fertilized salmon eggs were placed in boxes close to natural spawning redds in the river bed at sites influenced and those not influenced by groundwater. A difference of up to 40 days in 50% hatching was found, and “swim up” occurred at the end of May in boxes influenced by groundwater.Preliminary studies have revealed that groundwater also plays an important role in survival of salmon eggs in the River Suldalslågen when dewatered in winter. Eggs placed in boxes in groundwater seepage areas during winter in the dewatered river bed survived even when covered by ice and snow. The survival from fertilization until 30 April, one month before hatching, was 91%, the same survival as found for eggs placed in boxes in the wetted river bed. However, mortality from fertilization to hatching was higher compared to the eggs placed in wetted river bed, 57 and 91% respectively.Groundwater creates a horizontal and vertical mosaic of temperatures in spawning redd areas leading to potentially greater variation in spawning sites, time of hatching and “swim up”. This is likely to increase egg survival during low flow periods in regulated rivers. In conclusion, the interaction between groundwater and surface river water should therefore be considered when managing fish populations in regulated rivers. 相似文献
Geodemographics offers the prospects of integrating, modelling and mapping health care needs and other health indicators that
are useful for targeting neighbourhoods in public health campaigns. Yet reports about this application domain has to date
been sporadic. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential of a bespoke geodemographic system for neighbourhood
targeting in an inner city public health authority, Southwark Primary Care Trust, London. This system, the London Output Area
Classification (LOAC), is compared to six other geodemographic systems from both governmental and commercial sources. The
paper proposes two new indicators for assessing the performance of geodemographic systems for neighbourhood targeting based
on local hospital demand data. The paper also analyses and discusses the utility of age- and sex standardisation of geodemographic
profiles of health care demand. 相似文献
The role of post-Little Ice Age (LIA) Neoglacial retreat on landslide activity is investigated in 19 alpine basins along the upper Lillooet River Valley, British Columbia. We examine how Neoglacial scouring and glacial recession have modified hillslope form and slope stability, and construct a decision-making flowchart to identify landslide hazards associated with glacial retreat. This work is based on field mapping, GIS analysis, statistical associations between landslides and terrain attributes, and a comparison between Neoglaciated and non-Neoglaciated terrain within each basin.The bedrock landslide response to glacial retreat varies appreciably according to lithology and the extent of glacial scour below the LIA trimline. Valleys carved in weak Quaternary volcanics show significant erosional oversteepening and contain deep-seated slope movement features, active rock fall, rock slides, and rock avalanches near glacial trimlines. Basins in stronger granitic rock rarely show increased bedrock instability resulting from post-LIA retreat, except for shallow-seated rock slides along some trimlines and failures on previously unstable slopes. In surficial materials, landslides associated with post-LIA retreat originate in till or colluvium, as debris slides or debris avalanches, and are concentrated along lateral moraines or glacial trimlines.Significant spatial association was also observed between recent catastrophic failures, gravitational slope deformation, and slopes that were oversteepened then debuttressed by glacial erosion. Eight out of nine catastrophic rock slope failures occurred just above glacial trimlines and all occurred in areas with a previous history of deep-seated gravitational slope movement, implying that this type of deformation is a precursor to catastrophic detachment. 相似文献
Owing to the low surface gravity of the Rosetta target comet 46P/Wirtanen, a means of anchoring the Rosetta Lander to the cometary surface will be necessary. This task can be accomplished by firing an anchor into the cometary soil immediately after touchdown to prevent a rebound of the spacecraft from the surface or subsequent ejection by other forces, and to allow for mechanical activities (drilling, etc.) at the landing site.
The rationale for anchoring is examined, based on estimates of the main forces likely to act on the spacecraft after landing. We report on the development of an anchoring device using a pyrotechnic gas generator as a power source and an instrumented anchor.
In addition to the anchoring function, which is the primary purpose of this system, the integration of acceleration and temperature sensors into the tip offers the possibility to determine some important material properties of the cometary surface layer. The accelerometer is designed to measure the deceleration history of the projectile and is thus expected to give information on how the material properties (in particular strength) change within the penetrated layer(s), while the temperature sensor will measure temperature variations at the depth at which the anchor finally comes to rest. As the mechanical properties of the material are not known, it is difficult to predict the final depth of the anchor with any great certainty, but it may well be greater than that reached by any other of the lander's instruments.
The instrumented anchor will be part of the MUPUS experiment, selected to form part of the Rosetta Lander payload. We report on results of laboratory simulations of anchor penetration performed at the Institut für Weltraumforschung, Graz, and compare these with models of projectile penetration. The value of the results expected from the penetrometry experiment in the context of an improved understanding of cometary processes is discussed. 相似文献