Assessing drought threats to agricultural water supplies under climate change by combining the SWAT and MODSIM models for the Geum River basin,South Korea

ABSTRACT

The impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km²) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Material characteristics and deterioration evaluation for the 13th century Korean stone pagoda of Magoksa temple

This study focused on the quantitative deterioration evaluation for the Magoksa temple stone pagoda of the thirteenth century in Korea, based on the deterioration map by precise observation and ultrasonic velocity measurements. The stone pagoda is composed mainly of fine-grained quartz diorite with some granodiorite used in the second story and dew bowl, and the replacement stone for restoration in the basement is biotite granite. The deterioration map and the 2D contour map projecting ultrasonic velocity showed that the most serious deterioration was to the north face of the pagoda, which has about 81.2% deterioration rate and a low velocity range compared with the other directions. Thus, it is required to prepare conservation schemes to reduce deterioration and reinforce the structure. It is also required to carry out ground exploitation for calculation of load carrying strength and ground strength together with continuous structural monitoring. The results will be important for the stable and long-term conservation of the pagoda and will further serve to establish scientific conservation systems of stone cultural heritages in the future.     

Contamination of water and soil by the Erdenet copper–molybdenum mine in Mongolia

As one of the largest copper–molybdenum (Cu–Mo) mines in the world, the Erdenet Mine in Mongolia has been active since 1978 and is expected to continue operations for at least another 30 years. In this study, the potential impacts of mining activities on the soil and water environments have been evaluated. Water samples showed high concentrations of sulfate, calcium, magnesium, Mo, and arsenic, and high pH values in the order of high to low as follows: tailing water > Khangal River > groundwater. Statistical analysis and the δ²H and δ¹⁸O values of water samples indicate that the tailing water directly affects the stream water and indirectly affects groundwater through recharge processes. Soil and stream sediments are highly contaminated with Cu and Mo, which are major elements of ore minerals. Based on the contamination factor (CF), the pollution load index (PLI), and the degree of contamination (C_d), soil appears to be less contaminated than stream sediments. The soil particle size is similar to that of tailing materials, but stream sediments have much coarser particles, implying that the materials have different origins. Contamination levels in stream sediments display a tendency to decrease with distance from the mine, but no such changes are found in soil. Consequently, soil contamination by metals is attributable to wind-blown dusts from the tailing materials, and stream sediment contamination is caused by discharges from uncontained subgrade ore stock materials. Considering the evident impact on the soil and water environment, and the human health risk from the Erdenet Mine, measures to mitigate its environmental impact should be taken immediately including source control, the establishment of a systematic and continuous monitoring system, and a comprehensive risk assessment.     

GNSS integration with vision-based navigation for low GNSS visibility conditions

In urban canyons, buildings and other structures often block the line of sight of visible Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) satellites, which makes it difficult to obtain four or more satellites to provide a three-dimensional navigation solution. Previous studies on this operational environment have been conducted based on the assumption that GNSS is not available. However, a limited number of satellites can be used with other sensor measurements, although the number is insufficient to derive a navigation solution. The limited number of GNSS measurements can be integrated with vision-based navigation to correct navigation errors. We propose an integrated navigation system that improves the performance of vision-based navigation by integrating the limited GNSS measurements. An integrated model was designed to apply the GNSS range and range rate to vision-based navigation. The possibility of improved navigation performance was evaluated during an observability analysis based on available satellites. According to the observability analysis, each additional satellite decreased the number of unobservable states by one, while vision-based navigation always has three unobservable states. A computer simulation was conducted to verify the improvement in the navigation performance by analyzing the estimated position, which depended on the number of available satellites; additionally, an experimental test was conducted. The results showed that limited GNSS measurements can improve the positioning performance. Thus, our proposed method is expected to improve the positioning performance in urban canyons.     

Spring Distribution of Ciliate Plankton in the Southeastern Yellow Sea in 2019

Ocean Science Journal - As planktonic ciliates have been recognized as important players in marine microbial food webs, relevant studies have been conducted in the western coastal waters of the...     

Seasonal variations in the low-salinity intermediate water in the region south of sub-polar front of the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Seasonal variations in the low-salinity intermediate water (ESIW) in the region south of the sub-polar front of the East Sea were investigated by using historical hydrographic data. The salinity of the representative density (sigma-0=27.2) of the ESIW was minimal in summer and maximal in winter in the region south of the sub-polar front. The selected four subregions showed different salinity variations. In the west of Oki Spur and the Yamato Basin, salinity fluctuated similarly, with a minimum during summer. In the Ulleung Basin and northwest of Sado Island, however, variations in salinity showed two minima, one is in winter and the other is in summer. These results imply differences in the flow path of the ESIW into the region south of the sub-polar front over time.     

The 2007 Fox Creek landslide,Peace River Lowland,Alberta, Canada

Fox Creek is a small tributary of the Saddle River, a tributary of the Peace River in northwestern Alberta. It has several dormant landslides with degraded scarps and grabens. A new, reactivated landslide on the north bank of the Fox Creek occurred on 5 May 2007. The landslide formed two major sliding blocks. A rapid translational block slide, it mobilized 47 Mm³ of displaced materials, blocked the creek, and made a natural dam with a maximum height of 19 m at the tips of the displaced blocks. The rupture surfaces of the 2007 landslide were within the advance phase glaciolacustrine sediments. The residual friction angles are about 10° similar to those of the previous landslides in the Peace River Lowland. Precipitation and snow melt prior to the landslide are likely triggers of the 2007 Fox Creek landslide. The farmlands on the crest of the river valley and timber resources were impacted. The current landslide dam in Fox Creek does not have any evidence of seepage downstream; it may last for many years. Eventually, the creek will overtop and erode the dam. The same cycle of actions, landsliding, damming, and erosion will continue in the foreseeable future.     

Damage evaluation and conservation treatment of the tenth century Korean rock-carved Buddha statues

This study focuses on the lithological characterization, quantitative deterioration assessment and conservation treatment of the tenth century rock-carved Buddha statues in Korea. The Buddha statues were carved on light gray macrocrystalline biotite granite, and features microcline phenocrysts and pegmatite patches. The rock-forming minerals are quartz, plagioclase, microcline and biotite showing micrographic and porphyritic textures. Feldspars and biotite in the host rock have been partly altered into sericite and chlorite by weathering. The surface of the Buddha statues is remarkably irregular due to granular disintegration and the differential weathering of the quartz and microcline. In addition, horizontal and vertical cracks in the host rock have promoted mechanical weathering. Biological colonization of the statues was serious, and featured dark gray and yellowish green lichen, dark green bryophyte and some plants. The Buddha statues were evaluated as the highly weathered rock by ultrasonic survey. The lower parts under the influence of water and areas with severely broken surfaces showed a much more advanced weathering grade. Therefore, scientific conservation treatment was carried out for the long-term maintenance and conservation of the Buddha statues. After pretests, dry, wet and chemical cleanings were applied to the statues. Next, joining of cracked parts and surface consolidating were executed. Finally, the site environment was improved by installation of drain and trimming trees around the statues to ensure more stable long-term conservation.