Characteristics of southern California atmospheric rivers

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are channels of high water vapor flux that transport moisture from low to higher latitudes on synoptic timescales. In areas of...     

Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65–80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than ?1.7 W m^?2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our observationally constrained PDF for the Transient Climate Response are 1.6, 2.0 and 2.4 °C respectively, compared with the 10–90 % range of 1.0–3.0 °C assessed by the IPCC.     

Salinity and Temperature Regimes in Eastern Alaskan Beaufort Sea Lagoons in Relation to Source Water Contributions

Shallow estuarine lagoons characterize >70 % of the eastern Alaskan Beaufort Sea coastline and, like temperate and tropical lagoons, support diverse and productive biological communities. These lagoons experience large variations in temperature (?2 to 14 °C) and salinity (0 to >45) throughout the year. Unlike lower latitude coastal systems, transitions between seasons are physically extreme and event-driven. On Arctic coastlines, a brief summer open-water period is followed by a 9-month ice-covered period that concludes with a late-spring sea ice breakup and intense freshwater run-off. From 2011 to 2014, we examined interannual variations in water column physical structure (temperature, salinity, and δ¹⁸O) in five lagoons that differ with respect to their degree of exchange with adjacent marine waters and magnitude of freshwater inputs. Temperature, salinity, and source water composition (calculated using a salinity and δ¹⁸O mixing model) were variable in space and time. During sea ice breakup in June, water column δ¹⁸O and salinity measurements showed that low salinity waters originated from meteoric inputs (50–80 %; which include river inputs and direct precipitation) and sea ice melt (18–51 %). Following breakup, polar marine waters became prevalent within a mixed water column over the summer open-water period within all five lagoons (26–63 %). At the peak of ice-cover extent and thickness in April, marine water sources dominated (75–87 %) and hypersaline conditions developed in some lagoons. Seasonal runoff dynamics and differences in lagoon geomorphology (i.e., connectivity to the Beaufort Sea) are considered key potential drivers of observed salinity and source water variations.     

U-Pb chronology of the Northampton Complex, Western Australia – evidence for Grenvillian sedimentation, metamorphism and deformation and geodynamic implications

Conventional and SHRIMP U-Pb analyses of zircon, monazite, titanite and apatite from the high grade rocks of the Northampton Complex in Western Australia provide constraints on the timing of metamorphic processes and deformation events in the northern Darling Mobile Belt (western margin of the Archean Yilgarn Craton). Paragneisses and mafic volcanics and/or intrusions have undergone granulite facies metamorphism in a probable extensional tectonic setting prior to formation of W- to NW-verging folds and thrusts cut by normal shears (interpreted as late collapse structures) during the main deformation event (D₁). These structures are folded by open to tight folds with NW-striking axial surfaces developed in a second, NE-SW contractional event (D₂). Zircons from a mafic granulite provide an age of 1079 ± 3 Ma attributed to new zircon growth prior to, or at the peak of regional granulite facies metamorphism. Metamorphic monazites extracted from a paragneiss yield an identical age of 1083 ± 3 Ma. The similarity of ages between zircons from the mafic granulite (1079 ± 3 Ma) and monazites from the paragneiss (1083 ± 3 Ma) is interpreted to reflect fast cooling and/or rapid uplift, which is consistent with thrusting of the gneissic units during the first deformation event (D₁) associated with the onset of retrograde metamorphism. Granitic activity at 1068 ± 13 Ma was followed by intrusion of post-D₂ pegmatite (989 ± 2 Ma), which constrains the end of metamorphism and associated deformation. Cooling of the complex to about 500 °C is timed by the apatite age of 921 ± 23 Ma. SHRIMP U-Pb ages of detrital zircons from a paragneiss sample yield a maximum age of 2043 Ma, with no evidence of an Archean Yilgarn signature. A majority of ages between 1.6 and 1.9 Ga are consistent with derivation from the Capricorn Orogen on the northern margin of the Yilgarn Craton. Younger detrital zircons with 1150–1450 Ma ages, however, indicate an additional source that had undergone early Grenvillian igneous or metamorphic event(s) and also places a maximum age constraint upon deposition. The source of this clastic material may have been from within the southern Darling Mobile Belt or from Greater India (adjacent to the Northampton Complex in Rodinia reconstructions). This study documents an extended Grenvillian history, with basin formation, sedimentation, granulite facies metamorphism, contractional tectonics (two periods with orthogonal directions of shortening) and late pegmatite emplacement taking place between 1150–989 Ma on the western margin of the Yilgarn Craton. Ages recorded in this study indicate that the proposed global distribution of Grenvillian belts during assembly of the Rodinia supercontinent should be reassessed to include the Darling Mobile Belt. Received: 7 January 1998 / Accepted: 10 March 1999     

Large ground surface temperature changes of the last three centuries inferred from borehole temperatures in the Southern Canadian Prairies, Saskatchewan

New temperature logs in wells located in the grassland ecozone in the Southern Canadian Prairies in Saskatchewan, where surface disturbance is considered minor, show a large curvature in the upper 100 m. The character of this curvature is consistent with ground surface temperature (GST) warming in the 20th century. Repetition of precise temperature logs in southern Saskatchewan (years 1986 and 1997) shows the conductive nature of warming of the subsurface sediments. The magnitude of surface temperature change during that time (11 years) is high (0.3–0.4°C). To assess the conductive nature of temperature variations at the grassland surface interface, several precise air and soil temperature time series in the southern Canadian Prairies (1965–1995) were analyzed. The combined anomalies correlated at 0.85. Application of the functional space inversion (FSI) technique with the borehole temperature logs and site-specific lithology indicates a warming to date of approximately 2.5°C since a minimum in the late 18th century to mid 19th century. This warming represents an approximate increase from 4°C around 1850 to 6.5°C today. The significance of this record is that it suggests almost half of the warming occurred prior to 1900, before dramatic build up of atmospheric green house gases. This result correlates well with the proxy record of climatic change further to the north, beyond the Arctic Circle [Overpeck, J., Hughen, K., Hardy, D., Bradley, R., Case, R., Douglas, M., Finney, B., Gajewski, K., Jacoby, G., Jennings, A., Lamourex, S., Lasca, A., MacDonald, G., Moore, J., Retelle, M., Smith, S., Wolfe, A., Zielinski, G., 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries, Science 278, 1251–1256.].     

Juvenile winter flounder distribution by habitat type

Shallow embayments in Connecticut were sampled with a 1-m beam trawl for young-of-year winter flounder from 1990–1993 to determine if there are habitat types within nursery areas which consistently yield higher abundances. Initial examination of catch frequencies and all physical measurements indicated that only sediment type correlated with abundance. There was no consistent pattern in winter flounder catch in relation to salinity, water temperature, water column turbidity, depth interval, channel/non-channel, or the presence of sea lettuce (Ulva lactuca). Catch data were then classified into five habitat types defined by a combination of sediment and overlying litter. Analysis of variance in catch among habitat types showed that mean catch was significantly different among four of the five habitat types. Highest densities within a site most often occurred in mud/shell-litter habitat, followed by mud/wood-litter and mud/no litter habitat; sandy sites with or without litter yielded the lowest densities. Independent sampling of new sites corroborated the distributional pattern seen at the original sites, and importance of mud/shell-litter habitat. The distributional pattern seen here can provide a means of assessing which sites would be expected to support a higher abundance of young-of-year winter flounder, and which sites might provide less, if no other factors intervene.     

Complex effusive events at Kīlauea as documented by the GOES satellite and remote video cameras

 GOES provides thermal data for all of the Hawaiian volcanoes once every 15 min. We show how volcanic radiance time series produced from this data stream can be used as a simple measure of effusive activity. Two types of radiance trends in these time series can be used to monitor effusive activity: (a) Gradual variations in radiance reveal steady flow-field extension and tube development. (b) Discrete spikes correlate with short bursts of activity, such as lava fountaining or lava-lake overflows. We are confident that any effusive event covering more than 10,000 m² of ground in less than 60 min will be unambiguously detectable using this approach. We demonstrate this capability using GOES, video camera and ground-based observational data for the current eruption of Kīlauea volcano (Hawai'i). A GOES radiance time series was constructed from 3987 images between 19 June and 12 August 1997. This time series displayed 24 radiance spikes elevated more than two standard deviations above the mean; 19 of these are correlated with video-recorded short-burst effusive events. Less ambiguous events are interpreted, assessed and related to specific volcanic events by simultaneous use of permanently recording video camera data and ground-observer reports. The GOES radiance time series are automatically processed on data reception and made available in near-real-time, so such time series can contribute to three main monitoring functions: (a) automatically alerting major effusive events; (b) event confirmation and assessment; and (c) establishing effusive event chronology. Received: 12 January 1999 / Accepted: 13 July 1999     

The glacigenic deposits of Western Lleyn,North Wales: Terrestrial or marine?

This paper describes a complex sequence of glacigenic sediments occupying a faultbounded depression at Aberdaron Bay, western Lleyn. The sequence offers an insight into sedimentary environments during deglaciation of the Irish Sea Basin. A lower stratified diamict association (LDA) containing contorted units of fine sand/silt and displaying strong, consistent clast fabrics, is overlain by an upper diamict association (UDA) with weaker fabrics and extensive sand and gravel layers and channel fills. Certain characteristics of the sequence can be explained by a glacimarine depositional model, but there are several problems. In particular, the geometry of the sediments is difficult to explain without recourse to the melting of buried ice. An alternative model that overcomes these problems involves the decay of a terrestrial glacier containing reworked marine sediments. Supraglacial sediment flows released during decay of thinner ice covering the surrounding hills (UDA) would have rapidly buried a thick stagnant ice mass in the Aberdaron depression, facilitating slow melting and release of basal meltout till (LDA). A model is presented that accounts for the stagnation and in situ decay of a debris-rich Irish Sea glacier, and which could explain many of the deposits and landforms surrounding the Irish Sea Basin without recourse to high relative sea-levels.