基于兰利法的泥石流临界雨量实验研究

分析了目前泥石流临界雨量确定常用方法存在的问题 ,以及泥石流临界雨量实验研究中实验降雨量确定的随意性和盲目性 ,提出以兰利 ( Langlie)法为指导进行实验 ,使实验降雨量的确定有了理论依据 ,减少了取得可靠实验结果所需实验次数 ,从而使泥石流临界雨量实验研究更趋完善和可行     

中老泰铁路建设对云南省及沿线国家空间联系格局的影响

中老泰铁路作为泛亚铁路东、中、西三线的中线,对中国与老挝、泰国的跨境合作以及助推“一带一路”倡议的“中国-中南半岛”经济走廊的建设起着重要作用。选取中国云南省和老挝、泰国作为研究区域,以非障区的区域开发为基础,并选取铁路沿线15个主要城市,基于城市流网络视角对比铁路建设前后区域可达性与城市流网络的变化,结果显示：铁路建成将提升障区可进入性与非障区可开发性,提高区域互联开发潜力,提升研究区内可达性。可达性呈现以铁路线路为轴向周围辐射递减的格局,但泰国西部及老挝东部自然障区可达性提升效果甚微;铁路将增强城市间联系强度,实现“树状-网状”的城市流网络形态高效重构,网络发育更加成熟稳固;铁路也使得网络结构扁平化、分散化,流网络重构过程中资源的分散与耗散并存,城市间联系效率下降。     

京津冀城市用地形态的双分形特征及其演化

区域城乡一体化的标志之一是城镇体系结构的一体化,这个过程可以从标度的角度进行描述和评价。分形是标度分析的重要方法,地理空间无尺度分布特征的典型参数是分维。论文以京津冀城镇体系为例,利用遥感图像的解译数据和人口普查数据开展分形分析、位序-规模分布分析和异速标度分析,用以解释1995—2013年间京津冀城镇体系演化的过程。结果表明,京津冀城镇体系及其演化的特征有：①京津冀空间结构和位序-规模分布都表现为自仿射双分形结构;②京津冀区域的城市人口-城区面积异速标度退化为假线性关系;③随着城镇体系的演化,自仿射的双分形结构逐步向自相似分形结构演化。由此得出结论：其一,京津冀城镇体系存在结构性的不协调因素。其空间结构和等级结构具有二元化特征,但演化方向却呈现内在结构一体化的显著趋势。其二,大城市用地不够集约。城市边缘区的无序扩张导致土地利用铺张浪费。地方政府和规划专家可以有意识地利用城镇体系演化的这种特征和趋势制定管理措施和优化规划方案。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区典型村域土地利用变化及对区域乡村转型发展的启示

深入开展乡村地域土地利用变化和聚落发展规律的研究对于探究乡村地域系统优化、推进城乡融合与乡村可持续发展具有重要意义。论文以延安市碾庄流域为例,基于ENVI和GIS等软件技术,结合Landsat卫星影像、马尔科夫链模型和实地调查,从土地利用转移与交换变化、建筑用地空间转移、社会响应等角度探讨了黄土丘陵沟壑区典型村域土地利用变化特征以及对区域乡村发展转型的影响。研究表明：① 在一系列生态工程措施作用下,碾庄流域生态覆被发生明显改观,主要表现为大量的坡耕地及稀疏生态用地转化为林地,其中,林地面积占比由32.34%(2009年)增加至50.88%(2018年);② 在社会经济发展和延安新城“边缘效应”的影响下,碾庄建设用地呈现向流域的东南和西南方向拓展的趋势,10 a间建设用地面积增加了近75%;③ 在人类活动的主导作用下,黄土丘陵沟壑区的乡村正在朝着生态化和集约化的方向转型发展。研究结果有望为深入理解黄土丘陵沟壑区乡村地域系统结构和优化提供新参考。     

2010—2015年中东北非政局变动中的“政治性民意势力”及其影响

援引批判地缘政治学话语权和地缘政治想象分析方法,在对“民意”“政治性民意”“政治性民意势力”内涵界定的基础上,分析了2010—2015年中东北非地区相关国家政局变动中“政治性民意势力”的形成背景、过程及其影响。结果表明：中东北非国家“政治性民意势力”的形成有着深厚的国内背景和复杂的国际背景;“政治性民意势力”的形成经历了从民意事件客体的呈现,到民众聚集并上升为政治性议题,再到国内外势力借力博弈形成挑动抗议、推动政变的政治力量的过程;“政治性民意势力”形成以后,多行为体借力博弈下,在国别、区域上呈现不同的扩散轨迹和规律;“政治性民意势力”一方面造成了中东北非相关国家的政局变换,另一方面则推动区域地缘政治格局的变迁。这是对民意事件的地缘政治理论解读和分析,是一次较为有意义的尝试。     

Three Decades of Sea-Ice Variability in Jiaozhou Bay Revealed by Landsat Observations

In this study, we used Landsat images and meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of sea ice in Jiaozhou Bay(JZB) between 1986 and 2016. The results show that JZB is not always covered by sea ice in winter, but in some extreme cases, sea ice has covered more than one-third of the sea area of the bay. Sea ice in JZB has generally formed between January 1 and February 5, primarily along the coast, and gradually expanding to the central area of the bay. Both meteorological and artificial factors have played important roles in modulating the sea ice distribution. We found sea ice coverage to have been strongly correlated with the accumulated freezing-degree days nine days before the occurrence of sea ice(R2 = 0.767). North-northwest surface winds have dominated the freezing period of sea water in the JZB, and wind speed has exerted a more significant influence on the formation of sea ice when the sea ice coverage has been generally small. Additionally, artificial factors began to affect the expansion of sea ice in JZB since 2007. The construction of the Jiao-Zhou-Bay Bridge(JZBB) is believed to have retarded water flow and reduced the tidal prism, thereby leading to the formation of an ice bridge along the JZBB, which effectively prevents the southward expansion of sea ice.     

Estimating the maximum impact force of dry granular flow based on pileup characteristics

The maximum normal impact resultant force(NIRF)is usually regarded as the sum of the static earth pressure of the dead zone and the dynamic impact pressure of the flowing layer.The influence of the interaction between the flowing layer and dead zone on the impact force is ignored.In this study,we classified two impact models with respect to the pileup characteristics of the dead zone.Then,we employed the discrete element method to investigate the influences of the pileup characteristics on the impact force of dry granular flow on a tilted rigid wall.If the final pileup height is equal to the critical value,the maximum NIRF can be estimated using a hydrostatic model,because the main contribution to the maximum NIRF is the static earth pressure of the dead zone.If the final pileup height is less than the critical value,however,the particles in the dead zone are squeezed along the slope surface by the impact ofthe flowing layer on the dead zone,and because of shear effects,the flowing layer causes an entrainment in the dead zone.This results in a decrease in the volume of the dead zone at the moment of maximum NIRF with increases in the slope angle.As such,the maximum NIRF mainly comprises the instant impact force of the flowing layer,so hydro-dynamic models are effective for estimating the maximum NIRF.Impact models will benefit from further study of the components and distribution of the impact force of dry granular flow.     

Base cation concentrations in forest litter and topsoil have different responses to climate and tree species along elevational gradients

The forest litter is an essential reservoir of nutrients in forests, supplying a large part of absorbable base cations(BC) to topsoil, and facilitating plant growth within litter-soil system. To characterize elevational patterns of base cation concentrations in the forest litter and topsoil, and explore the effects of climate and tree species, we measured microclimate and collected the forest litter and topsoil(0-10 cm) samples across an elevational range of more than 2000 m(1243 ～ 3316 m a.s.l.),and analyzed the concentrations of BC in laboratory. Results showed that: 1) litter Ca concentration displayed a hump-shaped pattern along the elevational gradients, but litter K and Mg showed saddle-shaped patterns. Soil Ca concentration increased with elevation, while soil K and Mg had no significant changes. 2) Ca concentration in the forest litter under aspen(Populus davidiana) was significantly higher than that in all other species, but in topsoil, Ca concentration was higher under coniferous larch and fir(Larix chinensis and Abies fargesii). Litter K and Mg concentrations was higher under coniferous larch and fir, whereas there were nosignificant differences among tree species in the concentrations of K and Mg in topsoil. 3) Climatic factors including mean annual temperature(MAT), growing season precipitation(GSP) and non-growing season precipitation(NGSP) determined BC concentrations in the forest litter and topsoil. Soil C/N and C/P also influenced BC cycling between litter and soil. Observation along elevations within different tree species implies that above-ground tree species can redistribute below-ground cations, and this process is profoundly impacted by climate. Litter and soil Ca, K and Mg with different responses to environmental variables depend on their soluble capacity and mobile ability.     

基于GIS与地理探测器的岩溶槽谷石漠化空间分布及驱动因素分析

岩溶区土地石漠化已成为中国西部继沙漠化和水土流失后的第三大生态问题,近年来岩溶槽谷区石漠化表现出增加趋势。通过获取槽谷区石漠化、岩性、坡度、海拔、降雨量、土地利用、人口密度和第一产业生产总值等数据,利用GIS空间分析功能和地理探测器模型,探讨了岩溶槽谷区石漠化空间分布特征及驱动因子。主要结论为：① 岩溶槽谷区总石漠化面积为21323.7 km ²,占研究区土地面积的8.3%,其中轻度、中度和重度石漠化面积分别是11894.8 km ²、8615.8 km ²和813.1 km ²,分别占石漠化面积的55.8%、40.4%和3.8%;② 从石漠化的空间分布来看,槽谷区石漠化主要发生在连续性灰岩中,轻度、中度和重度石漠化面积分别为占槽谷区相应石漠化类型面积的22.1%、22.4%和1.9%;槽谷区石漠化主要发生在15°~25°的坡度范围,轻度、中度和重度石漠化面积分别为占槽谷区相应石漠化类型面积的27.1%、18.2%和2.3%;从海拔来看,主要分布于400~800 m范围内,轻度、中度和重度石漠化面积分别为占槽谷区相应石漠化类型面积的24.9%、18.4%和0.2%;从土地利用类型来看,主要发生于山地旱地中;从人口密度来看,集中分布于100~200人/km ²中;从第一产业生产总值来看,集中分布于25亿~50亿元中;③ 地理探测器的因子探测器揭示了岩性（q = 0.58）、土地利用（q = 0.48）和坡度（q = 0.42）3个因子是槽谷区石漠化形成的主要驱动因子,交互式探测器进一步揭示了岩性与土地利用类型（q = 0.85）、坡度与土地利用类型的组合（q = 0.75）共同驱动槽谷区石漠化的形成。     

黄淮海地区乡村人—地—业协调发展格局与机制

乡村在社会中占有重要地位,但乡村衰败目前已成为世界性问题,因此,乡村振兴需破解乡村病问题。现有乡村研究主要关注乡村单一系统、乡村转型或乡村特定问题的研究,对乡村系统自身、乡村各子系统之间关系及其驱动乡村发展逻辑的研究则显匮乏。基于黄淮海地区县域数据,选取乡村人—地—业3个子系统,利用耦合协调度模型刻画了乡村内部系统耦合协调度的空间格局,并对人—地—业驱动乡村发展的内在逻辑进行了探讨。结果发现：① 黄淮海地区大部分县域乡村人—地—业发展处于高水平耦合阶段,在空间格局上形成了4条明显的高值轴带,且乡村系统发展水平呈逐年上升趋势。② 黄淮海地区乡村耦合协调水平整体较高,但大部分处于勉强协调或初级协调阶段,耦合协调水平较高的县域主要集中在经济较发达地区。③ 黄淮海地区乡村耦合协同关系可分为低协调水平—土地发展领先型、中协调水平—人口发展领先型和高协调水平—人业发展引领型3种类型,其中产业在黄淮海地区乡村协调发展中至关重要。④ 乡村人—地—业的协调发展可有效激活“四力”,为乡村可持续发展奠定了基础。本研究为理解乡村系统自身、破解乡村问题及实现乡村可持续发展提供了参考。