IPCC AR6报告解读：未来的全球气候——基于情景的预估和近期信息

依据IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告第四章的内容,对未来全球气候的预估结果进行解读。报告对21世纪全球表面气温、降水、大尺度环流和变率模态、冰冻圈和海洋圈的可能变化进行了系统评估,并对2100年以后的气候变化做了合理估计。评估指出全球平均表面气温将在未来20年内达到或超过1.5℃,平均降水也将增加,但随季节和区域而异,同时变率将增大。大尺度环流和变率模态受内部变率影响较大。到21世纪末,北冰洋可能出现无冰期;全球海洋会继续酸化,平均海平面将持续上升,百年内上升幅度依赖不同排放情景,都在2100年后继续升高。在最新的评估中采用多种约束方法,减小了预估不确定性的范围。AR6对于低排放情景以及“小概率高增暖情节”的关注为应对气候变化提供了更多、更完整的信息。综合报告的评估结果指出,未来需要进一步减小区域,特别是季风区气候预估的不确定性,并从科学研究和模式发展两方面加强我国气候预估能力的建设。     

Analysis of estimated satellite clock biases and their effects on precise point positioning

This study provides a systemic analysis to identify the biases in estimated satellite clocks and illustrates their effects in precise point positioning (PPP). First, the precise satellite clock estimation method considering pseudorange and carrier phase hardware delays is derived. Two methods for satellite clock estimation are compared, and their equivalency is discussed. The results show that apart from the well-known constant code hardware biases, the time-variant phase hardware biases are also absorbed by the estimated clocks. Also, the satellite clocks contain biases caused by modeling errors. To analyze the effects of these biases, they are grouped into initial clock biases (ICBs) and time-dependent biases (TDBs). Then, a detailed analysis of the impact of the biases on PPP-based troposphere and coordinate estimates is conducted. The experimental analysis demonstrates that TDBs affect positioning and tropospheric estimates, and their impacts are more significant in the static mode. The ICBs affect coordinate accuracy, zenith total delay mean bias, and its standard deviations only at the millimeter level for kinematic and static PPP, which is negligible. However, the ICBs affect the convergence period for both static and real kinematic PPP, and the magnitude of their impact largely depends on data quality. Note that satellites clocks are generally estimated with the P1/P2 and L1/L2 ionospheric-free combinations, and that hardware-specific parts of ICBs and TDBs cancel if users employ the same type of observables as the clock providers. Otherwise, the effects of biases cannot be ignored, especially for triple-frequency applications. Also, modeling-specific parts of ICBs and TDBs are significant in real-time clocks, which also affect user applications. Our conclusion is applicable for understanding the effects of these biases.     

Examining human heat stress with remote sensing technology

Heat stress as an environmental hazard which can seriously affect productivity, health, or even survival of individuals has long been studied. Despite the endeavors that have been made to address the issue quantitatively with various heat stress indices, they are often measured at scatter sites. This research devotes to revealing human heat stress within continuous space with remote sensing technology. The study began with the retrieval of dry-bulb temperature from land surface temperature (LST) with empirical models. As wet-bulb temperature was calculated from dry-bulb temperature and relative humidity, discomfort index (DI) as an indicator of heat stress was revealed for the study area at 1 km spatial resolution for three summer days. Results indicated that DI can be derived within continuous space with remotely sensed data, and its spatial distribution can be dramatically affected by relative humidity. Further comparison between DI and LST indicated that LST as a widely utilized indicator of surface thermal condition fails to address human heat stress as environmental factors such as relative humidity are not taken into account.     

基于DEM的6种坡度提取算法的比较分析——以山东省青岛市为例

坡度是描述地形特征信息的一个重要指标,对于制订土地利用规划和防御地质灾害具有重要意义。本文基于山东省青岛市的ASTER GDEM数据,利用MATLAB进行矩阵运算,采用6种坡度提取算法分别获取坡度矩阵、最大值和中误差等统计指标,对比分析6种算法的提取精度。结果表明:简单差分算法出现极端和偏差情况的概率较高,可信度不高;三阶不带权差分和三阶反距离平方权差分算法比较稳定,偏差较小且精度较高,对沿海地区坡度提取具有借鉴意义。     

测绘应急保障测绘装备和资料的管理研究

通过建立测绘装备和测绘资料数据库,进行装备和资料的查询、分发操作,满足应急保障分队的测绘保障,提高了应急测绘保障能力。     

外缺圆圆心检测

圆心检测中,圆的边缘缺损会影响圆心检测的精度。霍夫圆圆心检测具有良好的稳定性,但是精度稍低;最小二乘圆拟合,具有较高的精度,但是易受噪声点的干扰。针对这种情况,本文提出了一种基于霍夫圆的亚像素缺损圆圆心检测方法。先利用霍夫圆检测出粗略圆心坐标及半径,再利用轮廓检测技术提取出所有轮廓点的坐标,并根据霍夫圆检测出圆心及半径对轮廓坐标进行筛选,保留在圆上的轮廓坐标,并利用这些轮廓点坐标进行最小二乘圆拟合求出圆心。实验结果表明,该方法适用性较广,简单可靠,精度高。     

内蒙古核桃坝地区铅锌与铀矿的期次关系探讨

正核桃坝地区位于华北板块北缘多金属成矿带和沽源—红山子铀成矿带的交汇部位,具有优越的铀多金属成矿地质条件。近年来,核工业二〇八大队在核桃坝地区取得铀矿勘查突破,落实了铀矿产地。铀矿勘查中不仅发现了多个具有工业价值的铀矿体,还发现了许多较好的铅、锌、钼、铜、     

西藏班戈错水菱镁矿藻类成矿实验及其成因分析

目前关于天然水菱镁矿的形成认识主要有蒸发沉积成因和生物成因两类。前人在室内成功制备出水菱镁矿矿物,证实了该矿物的无机成因理论,但是实验结晶条件明显高于西藏班戈错的寒冷气候条件和水化学条件,并且班戈错湖水通过自然蒸发结晶也难以形成水菱镁矿矿物,而这一认识与周边阶地上正在形成水菱镁矿的现象相矛盾。因此,自然蒸发沉积可能不是现阶段班戈错水菱镁矿的主要形成过程,而已有研究表明,藻类具备诱导形成碳酸盐矿物的能力,本文利用西藏班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水及其藻类开展室内模拟实验,并与无藻类的湖水自然结晶结果相对照,探讨藻类生命活动与班戈错水菱镁矿的成因联系。研究发现,藻类不仅能够适应高盐度盐水环境（矿化度117.3 g/L）,并且在其光合作用过程中还能显著提高周围水体pH值（最高可达10.564）,诱导并促进球碳镁石在藻类网状节点处结晶沉淀,该矿物进一步脱水即能够形成水菱镁矿矿物;而人为提高班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水Mg2+浓度也仅能结晶形成三水菱镁矿矿物,无球碳镁石或水菱镁矿结晶析出。因此,西藏班戈错水菱镁矿的形成过程与藻类生物成矿作用密切相关,但是有关球碳镁石向水菱镁矿转变的具体条件以及藻类成矿作用的具体分子机制仍不清楚,有待于进一步研究。     

测井地质学前世、今生与未来——写在《测井地质学·第二版》出版之时

测井地质学以地质学和测井学的方法理论为指导,综合运用各种测井信息,来解决基础地质和石油地质的地质问题。经过数十年发展,测井地质学在油气勘探开发各个环节得到广泛应用。非常规油气的兴起使得测井地质学正面临多重挑战和全新探索,亟需建立针对非常规油气的测井地质学综合方法理论体系。本文以《测井地质学·第二版》出版为契机,系统归纳了测井地质学的起源及发展历程、主要研究内容和研究方法流程。然后总结了测井资料与地震、地质信息的匹配性,并分析了不同探测特性测井方法纵向分辨率区间特征。在此基础上评述了测井地质学在井旁构造解析、沉积学特征研究、层序地层划分、地应力方向判别及大小计算、井壁裂缝识别与评价、烃源岩评价以及非常规油气“七性关系”综合评价当中的应用。但由于测井资料的负载能力有限性、测井与地质信息属性不对应性以及测井资料本身的多解性,使得测井地质学在测井—地质转换、非常规油气测井评价及其与人工智能融合方面还存在一定的问题。因此加强基础岩石物理研究,挖掘测井曲线中包含的地质信息,并与人工智能相结合,将拓展测井地质学研究的精度和广度,从而使其未来可更好地应用至非常规油气测井评价等实践工作中。     

粤东北桃源铀矿床黄铁矿地球化学特征及其地质意义

粤东北桃源铀矿床位于华南铀成矿省武夷山铀成矿带,其矿床成因、成矿物理化学环境特征等还未开展深入研究。黄铁矿的地球化学特征往往能够有效地反映其形成时的地球化学环境。桃源铀矿床中黄铁矿与沥青铀矿成因关系密切。因此笔者在野外地质调查和岩相学基础上,利用LA- ICP- MS原位分析技术,对桃源矿床黄铁矿主、微量元素开展研究。结果表明：①黄铁矿主量元素w（Fe）=41.64% ~ 49.39%,平均值为45.83%;w（S）=50.56% ~ 57.62%,平均值为53.73%,w（Fe）/w（S）=0.73 ~ 0.98,平均值为0.85,表明其形成环境是一个微弱缺铁,相对富硫的相对封闭的地球化学环境;②黄铁矿中相对富集Si、Na、Al、K、Ca、Cr、Co、Ni、Ti、Cu、Ge、As、Se、Bi、Pb等微量元素;③绝大多数微量元素与主量元素Fe、S无明显线性关系,表明在黄铁矿形成过程中,这些微量元素的地球化学行为除受到类质同象因素的影响外,还受其他因素影响;④成矿元素U与部分微量元素显示出较好的正相关关系,其中Na、Ti等元素含量高表明与铀矿物在空间上紧密相关的黄铁矿形成于成矿早期的碱性热液蚀变阶段,而非成矿期,要早于铀成矿时间,并为铀成矿提供还原剂;⑤黄铁矿内部微裂隙发育,成矿期铀矿物容易进入其中,从而引起裂隙附近铀矿含量升高。伴随的高含量As表明其形成于中低温热液环境。