宁波市洪涝灾害的历史与区域分析

本文提出了地区洪涝灾害的历史规律和区域差异分析的一般方法和模式，通过对典型地区（宁波市）洪涝资料的统计分析，探讨了区域洪涝的时段性，周期性，以及与旱灾和人口的关系，文章首次提出了洪涝指数的概念，并以计算洪涝指数的方法表达洪涝灾情区域差异分析的结果。     

A mineral magnetic and scaled-chrysophyte paleolimnological study of two northeastern Pennsylvania lakes: records of fly ash deposition, land-use change, and paleorainfall variation

A combined mineral magnetic and scaled chrysophyte study of lake sediments from Lake Lacawac and Lake Giles in northeastern Pennsylvania was conducted to determine the effects of land-use and sediment source changes on the variation of pH, conductivity, and alkalinity inferred from biotic changes. Ten 30–40 cm long gravity cores were collected from Lake Lacawac and three from Lake Giles. Isothermal remanent magnetizations (IRMs) were given to the lake sediments in a 1.3 T magnetic field to measure magnetic mineral concentration variations. IRM acquisition experiments were conducted to identify magnetic mineralogy. The bedrock, soils and a peat bog on the shores of Lake Lacawac were also sampled for magnetic analysis to determine possible lake sediment sources. The top 10 cm of sediment collected from Lakes Lacawac and Giles was two to four times more magnetic than deeper sediment. ²¹⁰Pb dating suggests that this intensity increase commenced circa 1900. SEM images of magnetic extracts from the highly magnetic sediments indicates the presence of magnetic fly ash microspheres from fossil fuel burning electric power generation plants. The similarity in magnetic coercivity in the top 8 cm lake sediments and in the peat bog supports an atmospheric source for some of the magnetic minerals in the youngest lake sediments. The highly magnetic sediments also contain an antiferromagnetic mineral in two cores closest to Lake Lacawacs southeastern shore. This magnetic mineral is only present deep in the soil profile and would suggest erosion and significant land-use changes in the Lacawac watershed as another cause for the high magnetic intensities (concentrations) in the top 10 cm of the lake sediments. The most significant changes in the scaled chrysophyte flora occurred immediately above the 10 cm level and were used to infer a doubling of the specific conductivity between circa 1910 and 1929. These variations also support land-use changes in the Lacawac catchment at this time. A similar shift in the scaled chrysophte flora was not observed in the top of Lake Giles, however, distinct changes were found in the deeper sections of the core coupled with a smaller peak in magnetic concentration. Fourier analysis of the ²¹⁰Pb-dated lake sediment magnetics indicates the presence of a 50 year period, low amplitude variation in the Lake Lacawac, Lake Giles, and Lake Waynewood (Lott et al., 1994) magnetic concentration records. After removal of the land-use/fly ash magnetic concentration peak by Gaussian filtering, the 50 year variation correlates strongly from lake to lake even though the lakes are in different watersheds separated by up to 30 km. When this magnetic variation is compared with Gaussian-filtered rainfall variations observed in New York City and Philadelphia over the past 120–250 years there is a strong correlation suggesting that magnetic concentration variations can record regional rainfall variations with an approximately 50 year period. This result indicates that magnetics could be used to document regional variations in climatic change.     

The glacilacustrine sedimentary environment of Bowser Lake in the northern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada

Bowser Lake, a fiord lake in the northern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, contains a thick Holocene fill consisting mainly of silt and clay varves. These sediments were carried into the lake by proglacial Bowser River which drains a high-energy, heavily glacierized basin. Sedimentation in the lake is controlled by seasonal snow and ice melt, by autumn rainstorms, and by rare, but very large jökulhlaups from glacier-dammed lakes in the upper Bowser River basin which complicate environmental inferences from the sedimentary record. Sediment is dispersed through the deep western part of the lake by energetic turbidity currents. The turbidity currents apparently do not overtop a sill that separates the western basin from much shallower areas to the east. Large amounts of silt and clay are deposited from suspension in the eastern part of the lake, but sediment accumulation rates there are much lower than to the west. Several strong acoustic reflectors punctuate the varved fill in the western basin; these may be thick or relatively coarse beds deposited during jökulhlaups or exceptionally large storms. The contemporary sediment yield to Bowser Lake, estimated from sediments in the lake, is about 360 t km^-2a^-1. This is a relatively high value, but it is less than yields insome other, similar montane basins with extensive snow and ice cover.The most likely explanation for the difference is that large amounts of sediment have been, and continue to be, stored on the Bowser delta andin small proglacial lakes.     

A record of accelerated erosion in the recent sediments of Blelham Tarn in the English Lake district

Two frozen cores from Blelham Tarn were subsampled and measured using mineral magnetic, loss-on-ignition (LOI), radiometric, granulometric and diatom analyses. A detailed chronology was established using varves, radioisotopes and diatoms. This has enabled an accurately dated reconstruction of sedimentation over the past forty years. Despite a large increase in lake productivity, evidence suggests that the observed exponential increase in sedimentation rates can be attributed to erosion within the catchment. The predominant sediment source has been identified as surface soil. A comparison between the trend of accelerated sedimentation and the record of increased sheep stocking density for the area within which the most of the catchment lies, as well as observations of contemporary surface processes within the catchment, both suggest that much of the recent erosion is a direct response to increased pressure from sheep grazing.     

Fully normalized spherical cap harmonics: application to the analysis of sea-level data from TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1

We introduce two sets of fully normalized harmonics for the spectral analysis of functions defined on a spherical cap. The harmonics are the products of Fourier functions and the fully normalized associated Legendre functions of non-integer degree. Using Sturm-Liouville theory for boundary-value problems, we present two convenient and stable formulae for computing the zeros of the associated Legendre functions that form two sets of orthogonal functions. Formulae for the stable numerical evaluation of the fully normalized associated Legendre functions of non-integer degree that avoid the gamma function are also derived. The result from the expansions of sea-level anomaly from altimetry into Set 2 fully normalized cap harmonics shows fast convergence of the series, and the degree variances decay rapidly without aliasing effects. The zero-degree coefficients (Set 2) of sea-level anomaly from TOPEX/ POSEIDON (T/P) and ERS-1 indicate an El Niño event during 1993 January-1993 July, and a La Niño event during 1993 November-1994 July, although the ERS-1 result is less obvious. Ocean circulations over the South China Sea and the Kuroshio area are clearly identified with the low-degree expansions of sea-surface topography (SST) from T/P and ERS-1. A cold-core eddy of 4° in diameter centred at 17.5°N, 118 E was detected with the expansion of SST from T/P cycle 47, and a property of the cap harmonics is used to compute this eddy's kinetic energy. The kinetic energy is at a low in winter and high in summer, and its variation seems to be periodic with an amplitude of 0.4 m² S^-2.     

On azimuthal eigenwavenumbers associated with Laplace's tidal equations

Laplace's tidal equations for the case of an ocean of constant depth bounded by meridians were considered by two authors at a specific frequency as an eigenvalue problem in the azimuthal wavenumber. A finite spectrum of eigenwavenumbers was found. That eigenvalue problem is re-examined by means of asymptotic techniques and numerical integration of the governing equation of the problem. At low frequencies a formula connecting the frequency and the number of eigensolutions is established. It is shown that at a given frequency the spectrum of eigenwavenumbers is wider than that reported, but (for this type of solution) the meridional boundary conditions are satisfied approximately only for the case of very low frequencies.     

LANDSCAPE PERMANENCE AND NUCLEAR WARNINGS

ABSTRACT. From the perspective of a human lifetime, the hazards of some nuclear wastes are permanent, so the warnings we place at contaminated nuclear sites must be permanent too. I address questions of how best to provide one hundred centuries of public warning at the first facility for permanent disposal, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. Scenarios of intrusion developed to guide the design of warning markers predicted that most of the changes in the area will be social and cultural. Because blatant and permanent markers will increase, not reduce, the probability of inadvertent intrusion, the most appropriate warning is a “landscape of illusion.” Such a landscape needs not permanent surface markers but underground warning devices beneath a soft surface marker. No warning can guarantee deterrence for 10,000 years, however.     

论集美区旅游业的再发展

通过对美区旅游资源开发现状的分析,阐述了集美区旅游资源的开发在促进旅游业再发展中的作用。并从集美区的实际出发,探讨了集美区旅游资源开发的原则和重点。