Detection and Analysis of Near-Surface Explosions on the Kola Peninsula

Seismic and infrasonic observations of signals from a sequence of near-surface explosions at a site on the Kola Peninsula have been analyzed. NORSAR’s automatic network processing of these events shows a significant scatter in the location estimates and, to improve the automatic classification of the events, we have performed full waveform cross-correlation on the data set. Although the signals from the different events share many characteristics, the waveforms do not exhibit a ripple-for-ripple correspondence and cross-correlation does not result in the classic delta-function indicative of repeating signals. Using recordings from the ARCES seismic array (250 km W of the events), we find that a correlation detector on a single channel or three-component station would not be able to detect subsequent events from this source without an unacceptable false alarm rate. However, performing the correlation on each channel of the full ARCES array, and stacking the resulting traces, generates a correlation detection statistic with a suppressed background level which is exceeded by many times its standard deviation on only very few occasions. Performing f-k analysis on the individual correlation coefficient traces, and rejecting detections indicating a non-zero slowness vector, results in a detection list with essentially no false alarms. Applying the algorithm to 8 years of continuous ARCES data identified over 350 events which we confidently assign to this sequence. The large event population provides additional confidence in relative travel-time estimates and this, together with the occurrence of many events between 2002 and 2004 when a temporary network was deployed in the region, reduces the variability in location estimates. The best seismic location estimate, incorporating phase information for many hundreds of events, is consistent with backazimuth measurements for infrasound arrivals at several stations at regional distances. At Lycksele, 800 km SW of the events, as well as at ARCES, infrasound is detected for most of the events in the summer and for few in the winter. At Apatity, some 230 km S of the estimated source location, infrasound is detected for most events. As a first step to providing a Ground Truth database for this useful source of infrasound, we provide the times of explosions for over 50 events spanning 1 year.     

Effectiveness of a market-based instrument for the allocation of water in a tropical river environment

The seasonal nature of Australia’s tropical rivers means that connected groundwater aquifers are an important source of both consumptive and non-consumptive water, particularly during the dry season. The management of these common pool groundwater resources is one of the predominant water issues facing northern Australia. A national program of water reform stipulates the expansion of water trading as a key instrument for water allocation. The effectiveness of new institutional arrangements such as water markets will be determined mostly by how well they coordinate with local environmental requirements, local institutions and local norms. This paper describes a novel application of combined field work, institutional analysis, experimental economics and agent-based modeling to the analysis of a potential water market in the Katherine region of the Northern Territory, Australia. The effectiveness of different versions of the policy instrument is assessed in light of local conditions. Instruments that enable personal relationships and local institutions and norms to play a role in water management are found to be more effective in terms of both farming income and environmental impact.     

Particle fabric in a small, type-2 ignimbrite flow unit (Laacher See, Germany) and implications for emplacement dynamics

 Ignimbrites of the 13-ka Upper Laacher See Tephra were deposited from small, highly concentrated, moderately fluidized pyroclastic flows. Their unconsolidated nature, and the prominence of accidental Devonian slate fragments, make these ignimbrites ideal for clast fabric studies. The upper flow unit of ignimbrite M14 has characteristics typical of a type-2 ignimbrite. Layer 2a and the lower part of layer 2b of the flow unit have strong, upstream-inclined a[p] fabrics (a[p] means long particle axes parallel to flow direction). Only clasts with a/b axial ratios of 2.5 or greater preserve good a[p] fabrics, whereas the a–b planes of flat fragments dip upstream irrespective of axial ratio. The a-axis fabric becomes weaker, flatter, and more girdle-like in the upper half of layer 2b. At one locality the a-axis fabric appears to rotate 40° up through the flow unit, suggesting either shear decoupling of different levels in the moving flow or unsteadiness effects in a flow depositing progressively at its base. The existence of similarly strong a[p] fabrics in layer 2a and the lower half of layer 2b appears inconsistent with the common interpretation that ignimbrite flow units are emplaced as a plug of essentially non-shearing material (layer 2b) on a thin shear layer (layer 2a), and that the entire flow freezes en masse to form the deposit. The data suggest that, if the flow froze en masse, it was shearing pervasively through at least half its thickness. Another possibility is that the flow unit aggraded progressively from the base up, and that the fabrics record the integrated history of shear directions and intensities immediately above the bed throughout the duration of deposition. Received: 13 February 1997 / Accepted: 4 April 1998     

Petrology and geochronology of basalt breccia from the 1996 earthquake swarm of Loihi seamount, Hawaii: magmatic history of its 1996 eruption

 Samples of basalt were collected during the Rapid Response cruise to Loihi seamount from a breccia that was probably created by the July to August 1996 Loihi earthquake swarm, the largest swarm ever recorded from a Hawaiian volcano. ²¹⁰Po–²¹⁰Pb dating of two fresh lava blocks from this breccia indicates that they were erupted during the first half of 1996, making this the first documented historical eruption of Loihi. Sonobuoys deployed during the August 1996 cruise recorded popping noises north of the breccia site, indicating that the eruption may have been continuing during the swarm. All of the breccia lava fragments are tholeiitic, like the vast majority of Loihi's most recent lavas. Reverse zoning at the rim of clinopyroxene phenocrysts, and the presence of two chemically distinct olivine phenocryst populations, indicate that the magma for the lavas was mixed just prior to eruption. The trace element geochemistry of these lavas indicates there has been a reversal in Loihi's temporal geochemical trend. Although the new Loihi lavas are similar isotopically and geochemically to recent Kilauea lavas and the mantle conduits for these two volcanoes appear to converge at depth, distinct trace element ratios for their recent lavas preclude common parental magmas for these two active volcanoes. The mineralogy of Loihi's recent tholeiitic lavas signify that they crystallized at moderate depths (∼8–9 km) within the volcano, which is approximately 1 km below the hypocenters for earthquakes from the 1996 swarm. Taken together, the petrological and seismic evidence indicates that Loihi's current magma chamber is considerably deeper than the shallow magma chamber (∼3–4 km) in the adjoining active shield volcanoes. Received: 21 August 1997 / Accepted: 15 February 1998     

Contrasting origins of Cenozoic silicic volcanic rocks from the western Cordillera of the United States

Two fundamentally different types of silicic volcanic rocks formed during the Cenozoic of the western Cordillera of the United States. Large volumes of dacite and rhyolite, mostly ignimbrites, erupted in the Oligocene in what is now the Great Basin and contrast with rhyolites erupted along the Snake River Plain during the Late Cenozoic. The Great Basin dacites and rhyolites are generally calc-alkaline, magnesian, oxidized, wet, cool (<850°C), Sr-and Al-rich, and Fe-poor. These silicic rocks are interpreted to have been derived from mafic parent magmas generated by dehydration of oceanic lithosphere and melting in the mantle wedge above a subduction zone. Plagioclase fractionation was minimized by the high water fugacity and oxide precipitation was enhanced by high oxygen fugacity. This resulted in the formation of Si-, Al-, and Sr-rich differentiates with low Fe/Mg ratios, relatively low temperatures, and declining densities. Magma mixing, large proportions of crustal assimilation, and polybaric crystal fractionation were all important processes in generating this Oligocene suite. In contrast, most of the rhyolites of the Snake River Plain are alkaline to calc-alkaline, ferroan, reduced, dry, hot (830–1,050°C), Sr-and Al-poor, and Nb-and Fe-rich. They are part of a distinctly bimodal sequence with tholeiitic basalt. These characteristics were largely imposed by their derivation from parental basalt (with low fH₂O and low fO₂) which formed by partial melting in or above a mantle plume. The differences in intensive parameters caused early precipitation of plagioclase and retarded crystallization of Fe–Ti oxides. Fractionation led to higher density magmas and mid-crustal entrapment. Renewed intrusion of mafic magma caused partial melting of the intrusive complex. Varying degrees of partial melting, fractionation, and minor assimilation of older crust led to the array of rhyolite compositions. Only very small volumes of distinctive rhyolite were derived by fractional crystallization of Fe-rich intermediate magmas like those of the Craters of the Moon-Cedar Butte trend. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.