Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney,Australia

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.     

Some consequences of meteoroid impacts on Saturn's rings

High-velocity impacts of interplanetary meteoroids on Saturn's rings are discussed. It is shown that the neutral gas emitted by impact vaporization may be responsible, to a large part, for the observed neutral ring atmosphere. Both the predicted neutral gas injection rate and the gas temperature (or kinetic energy) are compatible with the measurements (see Broadfoot, A. L., B. R. Sandel, D. E. Shemansky, J. B. Holberg, G. R. Smith, D. F. Strobel, J. C. McConnell, S. Kumar, D. M. Hunten, S. K. Atreya, T. M. Dohnahne, H. W. Moos, J. L. Bertaux, J. E. Blamont, R. B. Pomphrey, and S. Linik, Science212, 206–211, 1981). Heavy ejecta particles produce a particulate ring “halo”. The physical properties of this halo are calculated, and it appears to be identical with the tenous particle population discussed by Baum and Kreidl (1982). Erosion of Saturn's ring particles, the resulting mass balance, and regolith formation are estimated. This provides some constraints on surface properties and optical albedo.     

Upper limits on the total radiant energy of solar flares

We establish limits on the total radiant energy of solar flares during the period 1980 February – November, using the solar-constant monitor (ACRIM) on board the Solar Maximum Mission. Typical limits amount to 6 × 10²⁹ erg/s for a 32-second integration time, with 5σ statistical significance, for an impulsive emission; for a gradual component, about 4 × 10³² ergs total radiant energy. The limits lie about an order of magnitude higher than the total radiant energy estimated from the various known emission components, suggesting that no heretofore unknown dominant component of flare radiation exists.     

X-Ray and microwave observations of active regions

Radio and X-ray observations are presented for three flares which show significant activity for several minutes prior to the main impulsive increase in the hard X-ray flux. The activity in this ‘pre-flash’ phase is investigated using 3.5 to 461 keV X-ray data from the Solar Maximum Mission, 100 to 1000 MHz radio data from Zürich, and 169 MHz radio-heliograph data from Nançay. The major results of this study are as follows:

1. Decimetric pulsations, interpreted as plasma emission at densities of 10⁹–10¹⁰ cm^?3, and soft X-rays are observed before any Hα or hard X-ray increase.
2. Some of the metric type III radio bursts appear close in time to hard X-ray peaks but delayed between 0.5 and 1.5 s, with the shorter delays for the bursts with the higher starting frequencies.
3. The starting frequencies of these type III bursts appear to correlate with the electron temperatures derived from isothermal fits to the hard X-ray spectra. Such a correlation is expected if the particles are released at a constant altitude with an evolving electron distribution. In addition to this effect we find evidence for a downward motion of the acceleration site at the onset of the flash phase.
4. In some cases the earlier type III bursts occurred at a different location, far from the main position during the flash phase.
5. The flash phase is characterized by higher hard X-ray temperatures, more rapid increase in X-ray flux, and higher starting frequency of the coincident type III bursts.

     

A dynamo theory of solar flares

It is proposed that the solar flare phenomenon can be understood as a manifestation of the electrodynamic coupling process of the photosphere-chromosphere-corona system as a whole. The system is coupled by electric currents, flowing along (both upward and downward) and across the magnetic field lines, powered by the dynamo process driven by the neutral wind in the photosphere and the lower chromosphere. A self-consistent formulation of the proposed coupling system is given. It is shown in particular that the coupling system can generate and dissipate the power of 10²⁹ erg s^#X2212;1 and the total energy of 10³² erg during a typical life time (10³ s) of solar flares. The energy consumptions include Joule heat production, acceleration of current-carrying particles along field lines, magnetic energy storage and kinetic energy of plasma convection. The particle acceleration arises from the development of field-aligned potential drops of 10–150 kV due to the loss-cone constriction effect along the upward field-aligned currents, causing optical, X-ray and radio emissions. The total number of precipitating electrons during a flare is shown to be of order 10³⁷–10³⁸.     

The Hα-cyclonic spectra of a flare loop system on 1981 April 27

The data such as the H-spectrum-spectroheliographic (SSHG) observations, the H-chromospheric observations, etc., of a flare loop prominence which occurred on the western solar limb on 1981 April 27 have been obtained at Yunnan Observatory. The distribution of the internal motions and the macroscopical motion of the flare loop prominence with time and space in the course of its eruption and ascension is derived from the comprehensive analysis of the data. The possible physical pictures and the instability of the motions of the loop are inferred and discussed.     

Preliminary observations of solar radio sources with the Culgoora radioheliograph operating at four frequencies

The Culgoora radioheliograph has been modified for observing at 327.4 MHz, which is in addition to the three frequencies (43.25, 80, and 160 MHz) previously available. At the new frequency the array beamwidth is 56, which represents the highest resolution yet available for metre-wavelength solar mapping.At 327.4 MHz the sources of radio emission are mainly in the lowest layers of the corona. Some preliminary four-frequency observations have been made of type I storms. It is found that the source size generally decreases with increasing observing frequency. This result confirms earlier suggestions that the sources of both type I and type III emission are contained in structures whose boundaries diverge outwards in the corona.     

Microwave and hard X-Ray observations of a solar flare with a time resolution better than 100 ms

Simultaneous microwave and X-ray observations are presented for a solar flare detected on May 8, 1980 starting at 19:37 UT. The X-ray observations were made with the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission and covered the energy range from 28–490 keV with a time resolution of 10 ms. The microwave observations were made with the 5 and 45 foot antennas at the Itapetinga Radio Observatory at frequencies of 7 and 22 GHz, with time resolutions of 100 ms and 1 ms, respectively. Detailed correlation analysis of the different time profiles of the event show that the major impulsive peaks in the X-ray flux preceded the corresponding microwave peaks at 22 GHz by about 240 ms. For this particular burst the 22 GHz peaks preceded the 7 GHz by about 1.5 s. Observed delays of the microwave peaks are too large for a simple electron beam model but they can be reconciled with the speeds of shock waves in a thermal model.     

The solution of Kepler's equation,I

Methods of iteration are discussed in relation to Kepler's equation, and various initial guesses are considered, with possible strategies for choosing them. Several of these are compared; the method of iteration used in the comparisons has local convergence of the fourth order.WANG Laboratories, Inc.     

Crustal motion and deformation in Greece from a decade of GPS measurements, 1993–2003

The Hellenic plate boundary region, located in the collision zone between the Nubian/Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates, is one of the seismo-tectonically most active areas of Europe. During the last 15 years, GPS measurements have been used to determine the crustal motion in the area of Greece with the aim to better understand the geodynamical processes of this region. An extended reoccupation network covering whole Greece has been measured periodically in numerous GPS campaigns since the late eighties, and a continuous GPS network has been operated in the region of the Ionian Sea since 1995. In this paper, we present a new detailed high-quality solution of continuous and campaign-type measurements acquired between 1993 and 2003. During the GPS processing, a special effort was made to obtain consistent results with highest possible accuracies and reliabilities. Data of 54 mainly European IGS and EUREF sites were included in the GPS processing in order to obtain results which are internally consistent with the European kinematic field and order to allow for a regional interpretation. After an overview of the results of the IGS/EUREF sites, the results from more than 80 stations in Greece are presented in terms of velocities, time series, trajectories and strain rates. Previous geodetic, geological and seismological findings are generally confirmed and substantially refined. New important results include the observation of deformation zones to the north and to the south of the North Aegean Trough and in the West Hellenic arc region, arc-parallel extension of about 19 mm/yr along the Hellenic arc, and compression between the Ionian islands and the Greek mainland. Due to continuous long-term observations of 4–8 years, it was possible to extract height changes from the GPS time series. In Greece, we observe a differential subsidence of the order of 2 mm/yr between the northern and central Ionian islands across the Kefalonia fault zone. The differential subsidence of the central Ionian islands with respect to the northwestern Greek mainland amounts to 4 mm/yr.