Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measurement of stream cross section using ground penetration radar with Hilbert–Huang transform

This study presents a new method to measure stream cross section without having contact with water. Compared with conventional measurement methods which apply instruments such as sounding weight, ground penetration radar (GPR), used in this study, is a non‐contact measurement method. This non‐contact measurement method can reduce the risk to hydrologists when they are conducting measurements, particularly in high flow period. However, the original signals obtained by using GPR are very complex, different from studies in the past where the measured data were mostly interpreted by experts with special skill or knowledge of GPR so that the results obtained were less objective. This study employs Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) to process GPR signals which are difficult to interpret by hydrologists. HHT is a newly developed signal processing method that can not only process the nonlinear and non‐stationary complex signals, but also maintain the physical significance of the signal itself. Using GPR with HHT, this study establishes a non‐contact stream cross‐section measurement method with the ability to measure stream cross‐sectional areas precisely and quickly. Also, in comparison with the conventional method, no significant difference in results is found to exist between the two methods, but the new method can considerably reduce risk, measurement time, and manpower. It is proven that the non‐contact method combining GPR with HHT is applicable to quickly and accurately measure stream cross section. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preservation of Re‐Os isotope signatures in pyrite throughout low‐T,high‐P eclogite facies metamorphism

Pyrite in LT–HP eclogites from the western Tianshan orogenic belt yields a Re‐Os age of 378.1 ± 8.9 Ma, which is 30–70 Ma older than ages previously obtained for the same rocks using the Rb–Sr, Sm–Nd, Ar–Ar, U–Pb, and Lu–Hf isotope systems. The Tianshan LT–HP eclogite experienced temperatures of up to ~570 °C combined with pressures of up to 2.1 GPa during metamorphism. These conditions are below the transition of pyrite to pyrrhotite, which defines both pyrite stability and possibly its closure temperature for Re‐Os. Pyrite can preserve Re‐Os signatures through eclogite facies peak metamorphic conditions, and thus allow determination of the formation age of pyrite in the protolith.     

Simulation of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems in northern China: Lightning activities and storm structure

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system of the ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System) model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.     

全球地面降水月值历史数据集研制

全球降水历史数据是开展气候、水循环等研究的基础。收集整理全球12个数据源降水历史月值资料,通过站号、站名甄别不同数据源中相同台站,对344个通过相关系数、一致率、均值t检验、方差F检验的台站多源资料进行拼接,尽可能多地融合各套数据产品优势,最终形成全球降水历史月值数据集(CMA Global PrecipitationV1.0, CGP)。数据集重点解决当前国际数据产品在东亚地区站点稀少、同时应用多套数据应用门槛较高等问题。数据集收录3.1万个台站共计1.87×107组月降水记录, 4152个台站序列长度达百年。与美国大气海洋局(NOAA)的全球降水数据集(GHCN-M V2.0)对比,CGP新增1万个站点、0.5×107组有效观测记录和1030条百年序列,其中141条百年序列通过多源整合技术获取。CGP的站点和数据量优势主要体现在东亚、东欧、西伯利亚等站点稀疏地区。基于CGP分析的全球降水时空特征与国际同类产品的结果较一致。新增的数据虽然没有改变全球降水分布的总体特征,但对区域性的百年降水变化检测有一定影响。基于CGP的全球降水百年序列结果显示,20世纪前半叶全球降水量偏小,近20年是1900年以来全球降水量最大的时期,各纬度带、各个国家或地区的降水长期变化趋势呈现显著的差异。      

基于敏感源分析的动态大气污染排放方案模拟

选取2014年11月6—11日一次典型污染过程,以北京城区为重点关注的目标区域,基于印痕分析技术判别对该区域影响较大的敏感源区,设计重点区域减排试验和敏感源区逐日动态减排试验,利用区域化学传输模式WRF-Chem进行模拟对比。结果显示:上述两种方案对源强较高的减排当地PM_2.5浓度降低均有明显的改善作用,且在传输作用下会辐射影响到下游地区;但仅就目标区域而言,敏感源区减排方案的减排效率要远远高于重点区域减排方案。为了验证基于敏感源分析的动态减排方法的适用性,进一步开展了不同季节以及不同背景浓度的个例模拟。结果表明:基于敏感源区分析结果制定动态逐日减排措施,可降低削减成本、提高减排效率,以达到最具经济环境效益的减排效果。     

海风雷暴的观测分析和数值模拟研究进展

沿海地区经济相对繁荣,城市化水平较高,对天气和气候的依赖性强,突发性强对流天气所造成的灾害也会更加严重;同时沿海地区的强对流天气又与海风环流密切相关,因此沿海地区海风雷暴的研究受到了日益广泛的关注,成为了气象学和大气科学中的重要研究对象。在过去的半个多世纪中,海风雷暴的观测和模拟研究取得了大量的研究成果。本文通过对这些研究工作进行回顾和总结,系统地分析了国内外的研究现状,重点讨论了海风雷暴的结构和特征、发展演变过程、触发机制及其预报预警。最后对海风雷暴未来的研究方向进行了探讨,提出了一些有待于研究或需深入研究的问题,以利于今后更好的开展有关海风雷暴的工作,加深对其发生发展规律的认识,提高预报预警水平。     

Risk Prediction of Tunnel Water or Mud Inrush Based on Disaster Forewarning Grading

Water or mud inrush can not only hamper the normal construction of tunnel, but also cause severe casualties and property losses. Through the cause analysis and statistical theory, a total of 9 predictors based on 3 factors, the engineering geology, hydrogeology and construction, were put forward to control the happening of water or mud inrush. Based on the classification principles of forewarning, 3 alert levels, red, orange and yellow, were established. Using the AHP–TOPSIS evaluation theory, the risk prediction model of water or mud inrush was built based on the classification of disaster forewarning. The model was used in the diversion project of Fujian Long Jin–xi and achieved good effects.     

辽宁省地下水动态成因类型分析

根据辽宁省2006—2010年地下水水位实际监测数据,分析地下水水位动态变化规律、形成原因及发展趋势,再结合地下水动态变化的自然与人为影响控制因素,以及地下水的补给、径流、排泄条件等,将辽宁省地下水动态成因类型划分为:气候型、开采型、灌溉型、水文型和径流型,经过较为全面系统的统计分析计算,绘制出地下水动态变化历时曲线,对五种地下水动态成因类型分别予以较为详细的综合分析研究,总结出辽宁省地下水动态变化规律特征。