Application of HF radar currents to oil spill modelling

In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.     

Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region

One of the main sources of uncertainty in estimating climate projections affected by global warming is the choice of the global climate model (GCM). The aim of this study is to evaluate the skill of GCMs from CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region. It is well known that the seasonal and interannual variability of surface inland variables (e.g. precipitation and snow) and ocean variables (e.g. wave height and storm surge) are linked to the atmospheric circulation patterns. Thus, an automatic synoptic classification, based on weather types, has been used to assess whether GCMs are able to reproduce spatial patterns and climate variability. Three important factors have been analyzed: the skill of GCMs to reproduce the synoptic situations, the skill of GCMs to reproduce the historical inter-annual variability and the consistency of GCMs experiments during twenty-first century projections. The results of this analysis indicate that the most skilled GCMs in the study region are UKMO-HadGEM2, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC3.2(hires) for CMIP3 scenarios and ACCESS1.0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES and CMCC-CM for CMIP5 scenarios. These models are therefore recommended for the estimation of future regional multi-model projections of surface variables driven by the atmospheric circulation in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region.     

Investigation of natural background radiation of sediments in Rameswaram Island,Tamil Nadu,India

The aim of the study is to assess the natural background radiation in and around Rameswaram Island. In this context, samples were collected to measure the gamma radiations of ²³⁸U, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K using NaI(Tl) detector-based gamma ray spectrometer. The average activity concentrations of ²³⁸U, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K are noted to be well below the world average values. The calculated absorbed dose rate, radium equivalent activity, and hazard index values were below the prescribed limit. The grain size of the sediment was analyzed following Trefethen’s nomenclature, and its correlation with the natural background radioactivity was studied. The sample that contained clay show elevated activity of ⁴⁰K. The percentage of heavy minerals shows concomitant variation in natural radioactivity, especially in the activity of ²³⁸U and ²³²Th.     

Validation of IPCC AR4 models over the Iberian Peninsula

This paper reports analysis of the ability of 24 coupled global climate models that were used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate the current monthly seasonal cycle of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in the last two decades of the twentieth century. The period investigated runs from 1979 to 1998. In order to assess the performance of the models, averaged seasonal cycles and probability density functions (PDFs) calculated from model simulations are compared with the corresponding seasonal cycles, whilst PDFs are also obtained using the data from the ERA40 reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. We found that simulated PDFs generally provided a better fit to actual PDFs than seasonal cycles do. This conclusion indicates that when evaluating model performance, the climate variability as measured by means of PDFs is not the only climatic element that should be tested. Regarding the comparison based on the seasonal cycle, results also show that the root mean square skill score is more useful than the r skill score. To rank the AR4 models, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation variables were selected and a group of five AR4 models were identified as the models which best reproduce current climate in the area: MIROC3.2-HIRES, MPI-ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.1, BCCR-BCM2.0 and UKMO-HADGEM1. The rank obtained should not be understood in a hierarchical manner because there is a certain degree of internal variability in the model ensembles. Finally, it should be noted that these results are in good agreement with other classifications found in the scientific literature.     

Breaking solitary wave evolution over a porous underwater step

Solitary wave evolution over a shelf including porous damping is investigated using Volume-Averaged Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes equations. Porous media induced damping is determined based on empirical formulations for relevant parameters, and numerical results are compared with experimental information available in the literature. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of wave damping on soliton disintegration and evolution along the step for both breaking and non-breaking solitary waves. The influence of several parameters such as geometrical configuration (step height and still water level), porous media properties (porosity and nominal diameter) or solitary wave characteristics (wave height) is analyzed. Numerical simulations show the porous bed induced wave damping is able to modify wave evolution along the step. Step height is observed as a relevant parameter to influence wave evolution. Depth ratio upstream and downstream of the edge appears to be the more relevant parameter in the transmission and reflection coefficients than porosity or the ratio of wave height–water depth. Porous step also modifies the fission and the solitary wave disintegration process although the number of solitons is observed to be the same in both porous and impermeable steps. In the absence of breaking, porous bed triggers a faster fission of the incident wave into a second and a third soliton, and the leading and the second soliton reduces their amplitude while propagating. This decrement is observed to increase with porosity. Moreover, the second soliton is released before on an impermeable step. Breaking process is observed to dominate over the wave dissipation at the porous bottom. Fission is first produced on a porous bed revealing a clear influence of the bottom characteristics on the soliton generation. The amplitude of the second and third solitons is very similar in both impermeable and porous steps but they evolved differently due to the effect of bed damping.     

Numerical modeling of nonlinear resonance of semi-enclosed water bodies: Description and experimental validation

The purpose of this work is to a present a numerical model to solve a set of modified Boussinesq equations to analyse nonlinear resonance of semi-enclosed water bodies. The equations are solved on a finite element unstructured grid in order to achieve an optimal mesh resolution with the local geometry. The model is able to simulate long time lapses and realistic forcing in real bathymetries with a reasonable computational cost. To validate the numerical results, a set of experiments was carried out in a physical model of two adjacent elongated basins. Comparisons between numerical and experimental results for different geometries and nonlinear conditions show that the model is able to simulate with an excellent agreement the transient nonlinear resonant process.