Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: Changes during the 20th century

Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by U.S. National Climatic Data Center and Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. Data from these archives (approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time series suitable for participation in our analyses) are employed to estimate systematic changes in indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest fire danger. We use four indices: (1) Keetch–Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index was developed and widely used in the United States); (2) Nesterov, (3) Modified Nesterov, and (4) Zhdanko Indices (these indices were developed and widely used in Russia). Analyses show that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires. Specifically, over the Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia and the Russian Far East) statistically significant increases in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest fires were found. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency of “dry weather summer days” during the past 60 yr. This study is corroborated with available statistics of forest fires and with observed changes in drought statistics in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia.     

The timing and extent of the eruption of the Siberian Traps large igneous province: Implications for the end-Permian environmental crisis

We present new high-precision ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages on feldspar and biotite separates to establish the age, duration and extent of the larger Siberian Traps volcanic province. Samples include basalts and gabbros from Noril'sk, the Lower Tunguska area on the Siberian craton, the Taimyr Peninsula, the Kuznetsk Basin, Vorkuta in the Polar Urals, and from Chelyabinsk in the southern Urals. Most of the ages, except for those from Chelyabinsk, are indistinguishable from those found at Noril'sk. Cessation of activity at Noril'sk is constrained by a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 250.3 ± 1.1 Ma for the uppermost Kumginsky Suite.The new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data confirm that the bulk of Siberian volcanism occurred at 250 Ma during a period of less than 2 Ma, extending over an area of up to 5 million km². The resolution of the data allows us to confidently conclude that the main stage of volcanism either immediately predates, or is synchronous with, the end-Permian mass extinction, further strengthening an association between volcanism and the end-Permian crisis. A sanidine age of 249.25 ± 0.14 Ma from Bed 28 tuff at the global section and stratotype at Meishan, China, allows us to bracket the P–Tr boundary to 0.58 ± 0.21 myr, and enables a direct comparison between the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of the Traps and the Permo–Triassic boundary section.Younger ages (243 Ma) obtained for basalts from Chelyabinsk indicate that volcanism in at least the southern part of the province continued into the Triassic.     

Impact of climate change on agriculture in Northern Norway and potential strategies for adaptation

This study evaluates the effects of climate change on agriculture in Northern Norway. It is based on downscaled climate projections for six different municipalities combined with interviews with farmers, advisors and administrative personnel in these municipalities. The projections document large climatic differences both between and within the different municipalities. The main predicted climatic changes include increasing temperatures and precipitation as well as increased frequency of certain types of extreme weather events. Despite challenges such as unstable winters, increased autumn precipitation and possibly more weeds and diseases, a prolongation of the current short growth season together with higher growth temperatures can give new opportunities for agriculture here. The impacts are expected to differ both within and between municipalities and will require tailored adaptive strategies. Most of these however should pose no difficulty implementing, having an agronomical basis that farmers are accustomed to cope with.