Consequences of coastal upwelling events on physical and chemical patterns in the central Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

The consequences of a coastal upwelling event on physical and chemical patterns were studied in the central Gulf of Finland. Weekly mapping of hydrographical and -chemical fields were carried out across the Gulf between Tallinn and Helsinki in July–August 2006. In each survey, vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were recorded at 27 stations and water samples for chemical analyses (PO₄³⁻, NO₂⁻+NO₃⁻) were collected at 14 stations along the transect. An ordinary distribution of hydrophysical and -chemical variables with the seasonal thermocline at the depths of 10–20 m was observed in the beginning of the measurements in July. Nutrient concentrations in the upper mixed layer were below the detection limit and nutriclines were located just below or in the lower part of the thermocline. In the first half of August, a very intense upwelling event occurred near the southern coast of the Gulf when waters with low temperature and high salinity from the intermediate layer surfaced. High nutrient concentrations were measured in the upwelled water – 0.4 μmol l⁻¹ of phosphates and 0.6 μmol l⁻¹ of nitrates+nitrites. We estimated the amount of nutrients transported into the surface layer as 238–290 tons of phosphorus (P)-PO₄³⁻ and 175–255 tons of N-NO_x for a 12 m thick, 20 km wide and 100 km long coastal stretch. Taking into account a characteristic along-shore extension of the upwelling of 200 km, the phosphate-phosphorus amount is approximately equal to the average total monthly riverine load of phosphorus to the Gulf of Finland. It is shown that TS-characteristics of water masses and vertical distribution of nutrients along the study transect experienced drastic changes caused by the upwelling event in the entire studied water column. TS-analysis of profiles obtained before and during the upwelling event suggests that while welled up, the cold intermediate layer water was mixed with the water from the upper mixed layer with a share of 85% and 15%. We suggest that the coastal upwelling events contribute remarkably to the vertical mixing of waters in the Gulf of Finland. Intrusions of nutrient-rich waters along the inclined isopycnal surfaces in the vicinity of upwelling front were revealed. The upwelling event widened the separation of phosphocline and nitracline which in turn prevented surfacing of nitrate+nitrite-nitrogen during the next upwelling event observed a week after the upwelling relaxation. A suggestion is made that such widening of nutricline separation caused by similar upwelling events in early summer could create favourable conditions for late summer cyanobacterial blooms.     

Water column monitoring near oil installations in the North Sea 2001-2004

Fisheries have been vital to coastal communities around the North Sea for centuries, but this semi-enclosed sea also receives large amounts of waste. It is therefore important to monitor and control inputs of contaminants into the North Sea. Inputs of effluents from offshore oil and gas production platforms (produced water) in the Norwegian sector have been monitored through an integrated chemical and biological effects programme since 2001. The programme has used caged Atlantic cod and blue mussels. PAH tissue residues in blue mussels and PAH bile metabolites in cod have confirmed exposure to effluents, but there was variation between years. Results for a range of biological effects methods reflected exposure gradients and indicated that exposure levels were low and caused minor environmental impact at the deployment locations. There is a need to develop methods that are sufficiently sensitive to components in produced water at levels found in marine ecosystems.     

Optimal Averaging of Incomplete Climatological Data

Summary We present a multivariate statistical interpolation method for optimal averaging of incomplete climatological data. This objective analysis is based on a linear regression of the data under the constraints of unbiasedness and minimized analysis error variance. One of the important features of the presented interpolation is the efficient exchange of common information between the analysed variables. This exchange is controlled by the covariances and leads to a remarkable reduction of the analysis error variance compared with theunivariate optimal interpolation. The second moment statistics are estimated exclusively on the basis of the given data using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Another important feature of the analysis is the partition of the entire analysis area into subregions. The estimation of the covariances and the calculation of the EOFs are carried out in each of these subregions separately. This results in a robust covariance estimation, and the regional dynamical characteristics are taken into account as well. The analysis is applied to the monthly horizontal wind data of the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Uni-, bi-, and trivariate analyses of the vector wind and the scalar wind velocity are performed for the Januaries 1951–1993 restricted to the Atlantic Ocean. The results show a remarkable decrease of the analysis error when the number of simultaneously analysed variables is increased. Received May 28, 1999 Revised October 10, 1999     

Vertical dynamics of summer phytoplankton in a stratified estuary (Gulf of Finland,Baltic Sea)

We present the results of multiparametric observations designed to follow the phytoplankton dynamics and interrelated physical, chemical and biological processes in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Data were acquired by an autonomous moored water column profiler, an acoustic Doppler current profiler, a flow-through system installed aboard a ferry and by profiling and discrete water sampling aboard research vessels in July and August 2009. The main aim of the study was to investigate the processes responsible for the formation and maintenance of sub-surface maxima of phytoplankton biomass. We suggest that the environmental conditions caused by the prevailing atmospheric and oceanographic forcing (wind; vertical stratification; basin-wide, mesoscale and sub-mesoscale processes) are preferred by certain species/taxonomic groups and explain the migration patterns of phytoplankton. Nocturnal downward migration of phytoplankton with a swimming speed up to 1.6 m h⁻¹ occurred when the community was dominated by the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa triquetra. The observed splitting of the population into two vertically separated biomass maxima suggests that the H. triquetra cells, which reached the sub-surface layers with high nutrient concentrations, experienced bi-diurnal or asynchronous (when swimming upwards) vertical migration. The most intense sub-surface biomass maxima, on some occasions with the biomass much higher than that in the surface layer, were detected in connection to the sub-mesoscale intrusions below the depth of the strongest vertical density gradient.     

The stress regime in a Rotliegend reservoir of the Northeast German Basin

In-situ stresses have significant impact, either positive or negative, on the short and long term behaviour of fractured reservoirs. The knowledge of the stress conditions are therefore important for planning and utilization of man-made geothermal reservoirs. The geothermal field Groß Schönebeck (40 km north of Berlin/Germany) belongs to the key sites in the northeastern German Basin. We present a stress state determination for this Lower Permian (Rotliegend) reservoir by an integrated approach of 3D structural modelling, 3D fault mapping, stress ratio definition based on frictional constraints, and slip-tendency analysis. The results indicate stress ratios of the minimum horizontal stress S _hmin being equal or increasing 0.55 times the amount of the vertical stress S _V (S _hmin ≥ 0.55S _V ) and of the maximum horizontal stress S _Hmax ≤ 0.78–1.00S _V in stress regimes from normal to strike slip faulting. Thus, acting stresses in the 4,100-m deep reservoir are S _V  = 100 MPa, S _hmin = 55 MPa and S _Hmax = 78?100 MPa. Values from hydraulic fracturing support these results. Various fault sets of the reservoir are characterized in terms of their potential to conduct geothermal fluids based on their slip and dilatation tendency. This combined approach can be adopted to any other geothermal site investigation.     

Reconstruction of Quaternary temperature fields by dynamically consistent smoothing

Conventional methods of palaeoclimate reconstruction provide estimates of climatic parameters using proxy data which have originated from individual sites. These reconstructions yield information on the local environment but only limited information on spatial scales that are required for model-data intercomparisons. We present here a new approach that connects these different scales by an upscaling of the local palaeoinformation together with a dynamically consistent spatial smoothing. A probabilistic data-based method for local reconstructions is combined with a dynamic constraint on the reconstructed climate parameter which stabilises the reconstruction on the target scale. The variational analysis leads to climatological fields being optimised with respect to the proxy data and to the prescribed dynamics in a statistically consistent way. This method allows a probabilistic approach of quality control of the palaeodata in terms of their spatial consistency and homogeneity and for an estimation of reconstruction errors. The method was applied to palaeobotanical data to reconstruct near-surface temperature fields constrained by simple linear dynamics. An approximate approach was used to estimate the magnitude of reconstruction errors in terms of standard deviations. Reconstructed January and July mean temperature of the early Eemian (∼ 125,000 years bp) have errors with a median value of about 1.8°C in January and about 1.1°C in July. Reconstructions across Europe show positive temperature anomalies for Scandinavia and near the East coast of the Baltic Sea. In contrast, early Eemian temperatures were apparently quite similar to those found today in Central Europe, as no drastic differences were reconstructed between the Eemian and modern (1961–1990) climate. This implies somewhat stronger temperature gradients in the Eemian than are observed today. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

An efficient discontinuous Galerkin method for advective transport in porous media

We consider a discontinuous Galerkin scheme for computing transport in heterogeneous media. An efficient solution of the resulting linear system of equations is possible by taking advantage of a priori knowledge of the direction of flow. By arranging the elements in a suitable sequence, one does not need to assemble the full system and may compute the solution in an element-by-element fashion. We demonstrate this procedure on boundary-value problems for tracer transport and time-of-flight.     

Hierarchical evaluation of IPCC AR4 coupled climate models with systematic consideration of model uncertainties

The capability of reproducing observed surface air temperature (SAT) changes for the twentieth century is assessed using 22 multi-models which contribute to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. A Bayesian method is utilized for model evaluation by which model uncertainties are considered systematically. We provide a hierarchical analysis for global to sub-continental regions with two settings. First, regions of different size are evaluated separately at global, hemispheric, continental, and sub-continental scales. Second, the global SAT trend patterns are evaluated with gradual refinement of horizontal scales (higher dimensional analysis). Results show that models with natural plus anthropogenic forcing (MME_ALL) generally exhibit better skill than models with anthropogenic only forcing (MME_ANTH) at all spatial scales for different trend periods (entire twentieth century and its first and second halves). This confirms previous studies that suggest the important role of natural forcing. For the second half of the century, we found that MME_ANTH performs well compared to MME_ALL except for a few models with overestimated warming. This indicates not only major contributions of anthropogenic forcing over that period but also the applicability of both MMEs to observationally-constrained future predictions of climate changes. In addition, the skill-weighted averages with the Bayes factors [Bayesian model averaging (BMA)] show a general superiority over other error-based weighted averaging methods, suggesting a potential advantage of BMA for climate change predictions.