On Blind Tests and Spatial Prediction Models

This contribution discusses the usage of blind tests, BT, to cross-validate and interpret the results of predictions by statistical models applied to spatial databases. Models such as Bayesian probability, empirical likelihood ratio, fuzzy sets, or neural networks were and are being applied to identify areas likely to contain events such as undiscovered mineral resources, zones of high natural hazard, or sites with high potential environmental impact. By processing the information in a spatial database, the models establish the relationships between the distribution of known events and their contextual settings, described by both thematic and continuous data layers. The relationships are to locate situations where similar events are likely to occur. Maps of predicted relative resource potential or of relative hazard/impact levels are generated. They consist of relative values that need careful quantitative scrutiny to be interpreted for taking decisions on further action in exploration or on hazard/impact mitigation and avoidance. The only meaning of such relative values is their rank. Obviously, to assess the reliability of the predicted ranks, tests are indispensable. This is also a consequence of the impracticality of waiting for the future to reveal the goodness of our prediction. During the past decade only a few attempts have been made by some researchers to cross-validate the results of spatial predictions. Furthermore, assumptions and applications of cross-validations differ considerably in a number of recent case studies. A perspective for all such experiments is provided using two specific examples, one in mineral exploration and the other in landslide hazard, to answer the fundamental question: how good is my prediction?     

Surveillance of waste disposal activity at sea using satellite ocean color imagers: GOCI and MODIS

Korean Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua observations of the variation in ocean color at the sea surface were utilized to monitor the impact of nutrient-rich sewage sludge disposal in the oligotrophic area of the Yellow Sea. MODIS revealed that algal blooms persisted in the spring annually at the dump site in the Yellow Sea since year 2000 to the present. A number of implications of using products of the satellite ocean color imagers were exploited here based on the measurements in the Yellow Sea. GOCI observes almost every hour during the daylight period, every day since June 2011. Therefore, GOCI provides a powerful tool to monitor waste disposal at sea in real time. Tracking of disposal activity from a large tanker was possible hour by hour from the GOCI timeseries images compared to MODIS. Smaller changes in the color of the ocean surface can be easily observed, as GOCI resolves images at smaller scales in space and time in comparison to polar orbiting satellites, e.g., MODIS. GOCI may be widely used to monitor various marine activities in the sea, including waste disposal activity from ships.     

Interpolations of groundwater table elevation in dissected uplands

The variable elevation of the groundwater table in the St. Louis area was estimated using multiple linear regression (MLR), ordinary kriging, and cokriging as part of a regional program seeking to assess liquefaction potential. Surface water features were used to determine the minimum water table for MLR and supplement the principal variables for ordinary kriging and cokriging. By evaluating the known depth to the water and the minimum water table elevation, the MLR analysis approximates the groundwater elevation for a contiguous hydrologic system. Ordinary kriging and cokriging estimate values in unsampled areas by calculating the spatial relationships between the unsampled and sampled locations. In this study, ordinary kriging did not incorporate topographic variations as an independent variable, while cokriging included topography as a supporting covariable. Cross validation suggests that cokriging provides a more reliable estimate at known data points with less uncertainty than the other methods. Profiles extending through the dissected uplands terrain suggest that: (1) the groundwater table generated by MLR mimics the ground surface and elicits a exaggerated interpolation of groundwater elevation; (2) the groundwater table estimated by ordinary kriging tends to ignore local topography and exhibits oversmoothing of the actual undulations in the water table; and (3) cokriging appears to give the realistic water surface, which rises and falls in proportion to the overlying topography. The authors concluded that cokriging provided the most realistic estimate of the groundwater surface, which is the key variable in assessing soil liquefaction potential in unconsolidated sediments.     

Diagnosing Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models

We review the methodologies used to quantify climate feedbacks in coupled models. The method of radiative kernels is outlined and used to illustrate the dependence of lapse rate, water vapor, surface albedo, and cloud feedbacks on (1) the length of the time average used to define two projected climate states and (2) the time separation between the two climate states. Except for the shortwave component of water vapor feedback, all feedback processes exhibit significant high-frequency variations and intermodel variability of feedback strengths for sub-decadal time averages. It is also found that the uncertainty of lapse rate, water vapor, and cloud feedback decreases with the increase in the time separation. The results suggest that one can substantially reduce the uncertainty of cloud and other feedbacks with the accumulation of accurate, long-term records of satellite observations; however, several decades may be required.     

龙门山褶皱逆冲带中前山逆冲带之新期构造及断层运动学(英文)

The disastrous Wenchuan, Sichuan, earthquake (MS=8.0) on 12 May 2009 ruptured several major thrust faults of the Longmenshan fold-and-thrust belt, along the western margin of the Sichuan Basin.     

Ultrasonically enhanced electrokinetic remediation for removal of Pb and phenanthrene in contaminated soils

Electrokinetic and ultrasonic remediation technologies were studied for the removal of heavy metal and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) in contaminated soils. The study emphasized the coupled effects of electrokinetic and ultrasonic techniques on migration as well as clean-up of contaminants in soils. The laboratory soil flushing tests combined electrokinetic and ultrasonic technique were conducted using specially designed and fabricated devices to determine the effect of both techniques. The electrokinetic technique was applied to remove mainly the heavy metal and the ultrasonic technique was applied to remove mainly organic substance in contaminated soil. A series of laboratory experiments involving electrokinetic and electrokinetic and ultrasonic flushing tests were carried out. Natural clay was used as a test specimen and Pb and phenanthrene were used as contaminants. An increase in out flow, permeability and contaminant removal rate was observed in electrokinetic and ultrasonic tests. Some practical implications of these results are discussed in terms of technical feasibility of in situ implementation of electrokinetic ultrasonic remediation technique.     

Origin and transport of sedimentary organic matter in the Yalujiang estuary,North China

The biogeochemistry of organic matter (OM) in a macrotidal estuary, the Yalujiang River, was studied during two cruises: the flood season in August 1994 and the dry season in April 1996. Surface sediments were collected in the riverine zone (RZ), the turbidity maximum zone (TMZ), and the marine zone (MZ). The molecular distribution of the n-alkanes and fatty acid series and bulk sediment characteristics, such as C:N and δ¹³C, were used to assess differences in OM source and transport from the river upstream to the marine end member. Higher C:N values typical for terrestrial sources were observed at the upper reach for both seasons. The δ¹³C of OM in surface sediments varied from −27.3‰ to −21.6‰ in the flood season and from −26.8‰ to −31‰ in the dry season. The concentrations of n-alkanes varied between 0.3–21.4 μg g⁻¹ and the variation of fatty acids was 4.8–32.9 μg g⁻¹. The data showed mixing of terrestrial and autochthonous OM in the middle and lower reaches. The distribution of lipids (n-alkanes and Carbon Preference Index) encountered in this study confirmed the importance of terrestrial OM in the sediment samples from degraded soil material. The distribution of fatty acids suggested important phytoplankton, zooplankton, and microbial signals (short-chain and unsaturated acids; ≤C₂₀). Branched fatty acids, such as the iso- and anteiso-C₁₅ and C₁₇ compounds, relfect bacterial contributions. All samples were characterized by a high proportion of mixture inputs in both seasons. A slight decreasing trend was observed with increasing salinity except for the highest percentage of mixed fatty acids in the TMZ of the flood season. Terrestrial fatty acids were approximately 20% in the flood season and 27–46% in the dry season. Differences in hydrological conditions and primary production between the TMZ, RZ, and MZ resulted in different OM distributions, which are reflected in the sources and degree of diagenesis of the sedimentary OM. Seasonal variation may be strongly influenced by hydrological characteristics rather than primary productivity and anthropogenic activities in the Yalujiang region.     

Artificial magnetic disturbance from the mass rapid transit system in Taiwan

An obvious magnetic disturbance has been repeatedly observed by magnetometers located outside of urban areas in Yangmingshan National Park and has affected the monitoring of volcanic activity in the northern region of Taiwan. The disturbance has amplitudes of approximately 3–5 nanoteslas, and regularly appears for approximately 21 hours per day, except during the New Year period, when it is observed continuously for 45 hours. This change coincides with the annual extended operation of the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system. A 750‐volt direct current drives the MRT trains and leaks to the ground, with a maximum value of approximately 1000 amperes measured along the routes. The disturbance is dominated by the unbalanced supply and return currents resulting from the leakage. The daily changes in the magnetic noise levels are correlated with the electricity consumption of the MRT system because the leakage is proportional to the use of electric power.     

The partial equilibration of garnet porphyroblasts in pelitic schists and its control on prograde metamorphism,Glen Roy,Scotland

Garnet porphyroblasts in sillimanite‐bearing pelitic schists contain complex textural and compositional zoning, with considerable variation both within and between adjacent samples. The sillimanite‐bearing schists locally occur in regional Barrovian garnet zone assemblages and are indicative of a persistent lack of equilibrium during prograde metamorphism. Garnet in these Dalradian rocks from the Scottish Highlands preserves evidence of a range of metamorphic responses including initial growth and patchy coupled dissolution–reprecipitation followed by partial dissolution. Individual porphyroblasts each have a unique and variable response to prograde metamorphism and garnet with mainly flat compositional profiles co‐exists with those containing largely unmodified characteristic bell‐shaped Mn profiles. This highlights the need for caution in applying traditional interpretations of effective volume diffusion eliminating compositional variation. Cloudy garnet with abundant fluid inclusions is produced during incomplete modification of the initial porphyroblasts and these porous garnet are then particularly prone to partial replacement in sillimanite‐producing reactions. The modification of garnet via a dissolution–reprecipitation process releases Ca into the effective whole‐rock composition, displacing the pressure–temperature positions of subsequent isograd reactions. This represents the first report of internal metasomatism controlling reaction pathways. The behaviour of garnet highlights the importance of kinetic factors, especially deformation and fluids, in controlling reaction progress and how the resulting variability influences subsequent prograde history. The lack of a consistent metamorphic response, within and between adjacent schists, suggests that on both local and regional scales these rocks have largely not equilibrated at peak metamorphic conditions.     

Deep-learning based projection of change in irrigation water-use under RCP 8.5

Stream water-use is essential for both agricultural and hydrological management and yet not many studies have explored its non-stationarity and nonlinearity with meteorological variables. This study proposed a deep-learning based model to estimate agricultural water withdrawal using hydro-meteorological variables, which projected the changes of agricultural water withdrawal influenced by climate change of future. The relationships between meteorological variables and stream water-use rate (WUR) were quantified using a deep belief network (DBN). The influences of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and monthly averaged WUR on the performance of the developed DBN model were tested. As a result, this DBN with potential evapotranspiration (PET) provided better performances than precipitation to estimate the WUR. The PET of multi-model scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 would be increased as time goes by, and thus leads to increase WUR estimated by DBN in three basins, located in South Korea during the future period. On the contrary, water availability expected to decrease compared to the current. Therefore, managing water-uses and improving efficiencies can be prepared for the change in agricultural water-use by climate change in the future.