Long-term spatio-temporal precipitation variability in arid-zone Australia and implications for groundwater recharge

Quantifying dryland groundwater recharge as a function of climate variability is becoming increasingly important in the face of a globally depleted resource, yet this remains a major challenge due to lack of adequate monitoring and the complexity of processes involved. A previously unpublished and unique dataset of high density and frequency rainfall measurements is presented, from the Fowlers Gap Arid Zone Research Station in western New South Wales (Australia). The dataset confirms extreme spatial and temporal variability in rainfall distribution which has been observed in other dryland areas and is generally explained by the dominance of individual storm cells. Contrary to previous observations, however, this dataset contains only a few localised storm cells despite the variability. The implications of spatiotemporal rainfall variability on the estimation of groundwater recharge is assessed and show that the most likely recharge mechanism is through indirect and localised, rather than direct, recharge. Examples of rainfall and stream gauge height illustrate runoff generation when a spatially averaged threshold of 15–25 mm (depending on the antecedent moisture conditions) is exceeded. Preliminary assessment of groundwater levels illustrates that the regional water table is much deeper than anticipated, especially considering the expected magnitude of indirect and localised recharge. A possible explanation is that pathways for indirect and localised recharge are inhibited by the large quantities of Aeolian dust observed at the site. Runoff readily occurs with water collecting in surface lakes which slowly dry and disappear. Assuming direct groundwater recharge under these conditions will significantly overestimate actual recharge.     

Identifying landslide preconditions in Swedish quick clays—insights from integration of surface geophysical,core sample- and downhole property measurements

Quick-clay landslides are a serious geohazard in Canada, Norway and Sweden. Identification and mapping of quick clays are essential endeavours because the damage caused by an individual landslide can be large and costly, with potentially fatal consequences. We collected geophysical borehole and soil core data from an area prone to quick-clay landslides in southwestern Sweden. Methodologies included in situ and laboratory measurements, providing information about natural gamma radiation, sonic velocities, electrical conductivity, pH, physical grain size, elemental and mineral composition, magnetic properties, cation exchange capacity and fossil content. A stratigraphic thickness of almost 60 m enables us to study quick clays and their host environment in Sweden at unusually high resolution. Results identify the origin and location of reflections in nearby seismic lines and assign physico-chemical properties to the geological units present in the area. We show that coarse-grained layers are sandwiched between marine clays (some of which are quick clays). These layers function as a conduit for relatively fresh water that infiltrates the marine clays and chemically destabilizes them by leaching out their salts. The salinity distribution in the boreholes indicate that the groundwater movement is downwards, through the coarse-grained layer and towards the Göta river. The presence of these materials is important for the development of quick clays, although not a prerequisite. With the help of surface geophysical methods, the location of the coarse-grained layers can be known faster and more economically, which could be relevant for studying the potential for quick-clay landslide occurrence over large areas.     

The Precambrian–Cambrian nonconformity at the Ercall Quarries,The Wrekin,Shropshire, UK

The Precambrian–Cambrian boundary is iconic, marking the first appearance of shelly fauna in the fossil record, and opening the Phanerozoic Eon. In England and Wales, the transition from predominantly Precambrian igneous rocks to Cambrian sedimentary strata is generally unconformable. An exceptional exposure of this transition can be observed in the Ercall Quarries in Shropshire, a classic locality in all senses of the word.     

模拟土体本构特性的热力学方法

简要介绍了建立岩土材料弹塑性本构模型的热力学方法。它不仅具有紧凑的数学结构,而且自动满足热力学定律,仅从两个热力学势函数,即自由能函数与耗散增量函数出发,就足以导出弹塑性理论必须的屈服条件,流动法则,硬化定律和弹性定律。通过理论证明指出,只要耗散增量函数依赖于当前应力,流动法则必然是非关联的,岩土材料的摩擦特性与非关联流动法则密不可分。介绍该方法在三维模型,岩土材料的微细观力学特性,应力应变的均匀化以及剪胀和各向异性方面应用的主要研究进展,并对一些重要的概念,诸如“储存的塑性功”,“Reynolds-Taylor状态”等,进行分析与解释。最后给出近期需进一步深入研究的几点建议。     

Storm event sediment fingerprinting for temporal and spatial sediment source tracing

Sediment fingerprinting has been widely used to distinguish discrete sediment sources; however, application to intra-storm sediment source variability has received relatively little focus despite the benefit being long recognized. In this investigation, sediment fingerprinting was applied to a 53-hr storm event sampled hourly to determine sediment source dynamics throughout the event. Sediment sources were differentiated using 16 variables, and source contribution determined using Bayesian and Frequentist mixing models for comparison. Both models provided comparable source predictions for the dominant source estimates and the general temporal pattern. The Frequentist model appeared to exhibit some unreliable values coinciding with low GOF and attributed to inherent model structure. The Bayesian model showed higher uncertainty, likely due to the “process error” utilized associated with single sample mixtures. High variability in sediment source contribution was observed between hourly time steps; however, local smoothing reveals temporal trends during the event. A higher average proportion of mudstone is found in the falling limb (0.544) compared with the rising limb (0.464), and the reverse is observed for mountain range (0.218 vs. 0.283) and unconsolidated (0.073 vs. 0.055). In the initial hours of the storm, mudstone source contribution significantly drops, whereas mountain range and unconsolidated contributions peak. The SSC-Q clockwise hysteresis indicates proximal sediment sources, suggesting the mudstone sediment is stored channel sediment and easily entrained. This sediment flushes through, coinciding with a drop as the distal mountain range and unconsolidated sources arrive to peak contribution. The wider Manawatū discharge and sediment load then arrive, delivering increasing levels of mudstone throughout the remainder of the event while mountain range sediment diminishes. Spatial representation of the sediment source contribution was derived from distributing sediment source loads to the spatial extent of the source material according to sub-catchment sediment loads and was weighted according to slope. This provided an effective means to visualize the origin of the sediment and a better spatial interpretation of sediment fingerprinting results, which is typically limited by poor spatial resolution.     

Simulation of historical temperatures using a multi‐site,multivariate block resampling algorithm with perturbation

Stochastic weather generators have evolved as tools for creating long time series of synthetic meteorological data at a site for risk assessments in hydrologic and agricultural applications. Recently, their use has been extended as downscaling tools for climate change impact assessments. Non‐parametric weather generators, which typically use a K‐nearest neighbour (K‐NN) resampling approach, require no statistical assumptions about probability distributions of variables and can be easily applied for multi‐site use. Two characteristics of traditional K‐NN models result from resampling daily values: (1) temporal correlation structure of daily temperatures may be lost, and (2) no values less than or exceeding historical observations can be simulated. Temporal correlation in simulated temperature data is important for hydrologic applications. Temperature is a major driver of many processes within the hydrologic cycle (for example, evaporation, snow melt, etc.) that may affect flood levels. As such, a new methodology for simulation of climate data using the K‐NN approach is presented (named KnnCAD Version 4). A block resampling scheme is introduced along with perturbation of the reshuffled daily temperature data to create 675 years of synthetic historical daily temperatures for the Upper Thames River basin in Ontario, Canada. The updated KnnCAD model is shown to adequately reproduce observed monthly temperature characteristics as well as temporal and spatial correlations while simulating reasonable values which can exceed the range of observations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth,dynamics and deglaciation of the last British–Irish ice sheet: the deep-sea ice-rafted detritus record

The evolution and dynamics of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) have hitherto largely been reconstructed from onshore and shallow marine glacial geological and geomorphological data. This reconstruction has been problematic because these sequences and data are spatially and temporally incomplete and fragmentary. In order to enhance BIIS reconstruction, we present a compilation of new and previously published ice-rafted detritus (IRD) flux and concentration data from high-resolution sediment cores recovered from the NE Atlantic deep-sea continental slope adjacent to the last BIIS. These cores are situated adjacent to the full latitudinal extent of the last BIIS and cover Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 2 and 3. Age models are based on radiocarbon dating and graphical tuning of abundances of the polar planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral (% Nps) to the Greenland GISP2 ice core record. Multiple IRD fingerprinting techniques indicate that, at the selected locations, most IRD are sourced from adjacent BIIS ice streams except in the centre of Heinrich (H) layers in which IRD shows a prominent Laurentide Ice Sheet provenance. IRD flux data are interpreted with reference to a conceptual model explaining the relations between flux, North Atlantic hydrography and ice dynamics. Both positive and rapid negative mass balance can cause increases, and prominent peaks, in IRD flux. First-order interpretation of the IRD record indicates the timing of the presence of the BIIS with an actively calving marine margin. The records show a coherent latitudinal, but partly phased, signal during MIS 3 and 2. Published data indicate that the last BIIS initiated during the MIS 5/4 cooling transition; renewed growth just before H5 (46 ka) was succeeded by very strong millennial-scale variability apparently corresponding with Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles closely coupled to millennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic region involving latitudinal migration of the North Atlantic Polar Front. This indicates that the previously defined “precursor events” are not uniquely associated with H events but are part of the millennial-scale variability. Major growth of the ice sheet occurred after 29 ka with the Barra Ice Stream attaining a shelf-edge position and generating turbiditic flows on the Barra–Donegal Fan at ～27 ka. The ice sheet reached its maximum extent at H2 (24 ka), earlier than interpreted in previous studies. Rapid retreat, initially characterised by peak IRD flux, during Greenland Interstadial 2 (23 ka) was followed by readvance between 22 and 16 ka. Readvance during H1 was only characterised by BIIS ice streams draining central dome(s) of the ice sheet, and was followed by rapid deglaciation and ice exhaustion. The evidence for a calving margin and IRD supply from the BIIS during Greenland Stadial 1 (Younger Dryas event) is equivocal. The timing of the initiation, maximum extent, deglacial and readvance phases of the BIIS interpreted from the IRD flux record is strongly supported by recent independent data from both the Irish Sea and North Sea sectors of the ice sheet.     

Benchmarking sustainability in cities: The role of indicators and future scenarios

Scenarios are a useful tool to help think about and visualise the future and, as such, are utilised by many policymakers and practitioners. Future scenarios have not been used to explore the urban context in much depth, yet have the potential to provide valuable insights into the robustness of decisions being made today in the name of sustainability. As part of a major research project entitled Urban Futures, a toolkit has been developed in the UK to facilitate the use of scenarios in any urban context and at any scale relevant to that context. The toolkit comprises two key components, namely, (i) a series of indicators comprising both generic and topic area-specific indicators (e.g., air quality, biodiversity, density, water) that measure sustainability performance and (ii) a list of characteristics (i.e., 1–2-sentence statements about a feature, issue or small set of issues) that describe four future scenarios. In combination, these two components enable us to measure the performance of any given sustainability indicator, and establish the relative sensitivity or vulnerability of that indicator to the different future scenarios. An important aspect of the methodology underpinning the toolkit is that it is flexible enough to incorporate new scenarios, characteristics and indicators, thereby allowing the long-term performance of our urban environments to be considered in the broadest possible sense.