基于序列的地震危险性概率分析

地震通常在时空上是丛集的。传统的地震危险性分析所考虑的只是每个地震丛集中最大震级的事件——主震,并用所考虑场地地震动强度量值的超越率来表示（Cornell,1968）。这种地震危险性概率分析（PSHA）用于长期的结构设计或评估。近来,出于对短期风险的管理,已采用一种类似的方法来进行余震地震危险性概率分析（APSHA）,其与主震的发生相关（Yeoand Cornell,2009）。地震危险性概率分析通常用一种均匀泊松过程来描述事件的发生,而余震地震危险性概率分析则通过有条件的非均匀泊松过程来模拟余震的发生,其概率值取决于触发余震序列的主震震级。另外,由主震和后续余震组成的每个地震丛集,可以看成以相同主震概率发生的单一事件。这就可以用相对简单的方式在危险性分析中考虑余震,这个方法首先由Toro和Silva（2001）论证,并由Boyd（2012）进一步研究。实际上,这篇短文中心探讨概率方面,说明地震危险性概率分析和余震地震危险性概率分析的联合结果以得到一种考虑主震一余震序列的地震危险性整体解析解的可行性,而前面提到的研究中这些仍然缺乏。这种方法应用的结果,说明有助于依据导致超越某一加速度阈值同时也考虑余震的地震事件发生率（如对于结构设计）,初步评估地震危险性的增加。因而这从地震工程长远来看是切合实际的方向。     

Air--sea gaseous exchange of PCB at the Venice lagoon (Italy)

Water bodies are important storage media for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and this function is increased in coastal regions because their inputs are higher than those to the open sea. The air-water interface is extensively involved with the global cycling of PCBs because it is the place where they accumulate due to depositional processes and where they may be emitted by gaseous exchange. In this work the parallel collection of air, microlayer and sub-superficial water samples was performed in July 2005 at a site in the Venice lagoon to evaluate the summer gaseous flux of PCBs. The total concentration of PCBs (sum of 118 congeners) in air varies from 87 to 273 pg m(-3), whereas in the operationally defined dissolved phase of microlayer and sub-superficial water samples it varies from 159 to 391 pg L(-1). No significant enrichment of dissolved PCB into the microlayer has been observed, although a preferential accumulation of most hydrophobic congeners occurs. Due to this behaviour, we believe that the modified two-layer model was the most suitable approach for the evaluation of the flux at the air-sea interface, because it takes into account the influence of the microlayer. From its application it appears that PCB volatilize from the lagoon waters with a net flux varying from 58 to 195 ng m(-2)d(-1) (uncertainty: +/-50-64%) due to the strong influence of wind speed. This flux is greater than those reported in the literature for the atmospheric deposition and rivers input and reveals that PCB are actively emitted from the Venice lagoon in summer months.     

Survey of estrogenic and androgenic disruption in Swedish coastal waters by the analysis of bile fluid from perch and biomarkers in the three-spined stickleback

The potential for endocrine disruption close to sewage treatment plant and pulp mill effluent discharge points along the Swedish Baltic Sea coast was explored using a dual survey strategy employing two stationary fish species. The levels of vitellogenin and spiggin as biomarkers of endocrine disruption were determined in juvenile three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) together with the sex ratios and the presence of intersex. As an indication of exposure, estrogenic and androgenic substances were analysed by GC–MS in bile from perch (Perca fluviatilis L.). Spiggin and vitellogenin levels in juvenile three-spined sticklebacks were generally low, and, for most sampling sites no deviation in gonad type ratios were observed. No remarkable levels of natural or synthetic estrogens or androgens were observed in bile fluid from perch, while bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol were detected in perch from both reference sites and exposed sites. Taken together, the results did not indicate estrogenic or androgenic disruption in the investigated waters.     

Environmental transformation of the Bilbao estuary,N. Spain: microfaunal and geochemical proxies in the recent sedimentary record

The distribution and abundance of benthic foraminifera and a range of elements have been analysed in six long cores (up to 10 m long) from the Bilbao estuary, N. Spain, to document environmental transformation of this estuarine ecosystem and to determine sediment contamination levels. Three different environmental zones could be distinguished in the recent sedimentary record based on its microfaunal and geochemical contents. Initially, a pre-industrial zone containing very abundant and diverse foraminiferal assemblages together with baseline metal levels. Secondly, an older industrial zone exhibiting co-existence of abundant and diverse foraminiferal assemblages with high concentrations of metals. Finally, a younger industrial zone with extreme concentrations of metals and barren of indigenous foraminifera. This environmental transformation has been caused by the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial effluents during the last 150 years. The occurrence of foraminifera in the two industrial zones and along the estuary is not related to defined levels of metals, and this seems to confirm oxygen limitation as the key factor to explain complete estuarine defaunation during deposition of the younger industrial zone (period 1950-2000). Effectiveness of current regeneration schemes could be assessed using microfaunal and geochemical proxies as environmental quality indicators.     

同步轨道相对论电子通量长期倒空事件的统计研究

地球辐射带中有"杀手"电子之称的相对论电子通量增强和损失过程一直是空间物理学和空间天气学研究的热点.本文通过对2000—2016年间,地球同步轨道相对论电子通量降低至背景通量水平并持续时间长达3天以上这一特殊现象进行了相关统计研究.从事件的时间分布角度,本文研究了约1.5个太阳活动周内共62例事件随太阳活动水平高低的分布情况,结果表明:在太阳活动周下降期有较少的事件发生,而在峰年、谷年这类事件的发生率与太阳活动水平的高低并没有直接联系.随后,我们对这62例事件在开始、持续、结束三个阶段分别做了一些相关参数的统计,探讨相对论电子通量长期倒空事件的客观规律和产生机制.研究结果表明:事件发生前,太阳风动压、密度的显著增加引起磁层顶向内收缩,等离子体层顶一直维持在高L区域,IMF B_z分量南向和磁暴过程使相对论电子通量通过绝热和非绝热等物理损失机制降至背景通量水平.当这些相对论电子达到背景通量水平后,较弱的太阳风条件和地磁活动水平不足以提供充分的可以使相对论电子通量增长的源;虽然有些相对论电子通量长期倒空事件期间存在中、小磁暴过程,但这些强度较弱的磁暴很可能不会显著地影响...     

Hydrocarbons in surface sediments from the Changjiang (Yangtze River) Estuary, East China Sea

Sedimentary aliphatic (AH) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were studied in the Changjiang Estuary and the adjacent East China Sea. Total AH ranged from 2.20 to 11.82 μg g⁻¹ and consisted of n-alkanes and a dominant petroleum-related unresolved complex mixture (UCM). Within the n-alkanes, terrestrial plant wax compounds prevailed at nearly all stations. Of the PAHs, biogenic perylene dominated at stations receiving riverine inputs. Anthropogenic PAHs originating from combustion/pyrolysis processes varied from 17 to 157 ng g⁻¹, while fossil PAH concentrations ranged from 42 to 187 ng g⁻¹. Both biogenic and anthropogenic hydrocarbons are primarily derived from riverine discharges and accumulate at shallow-water stations. Distinct phase associations lead, nevertheless, to different sedimentation patterns. Fossil PAHs are enhanced at offshore stations where they are introduced directly by shipping activities. Biomarker fingerprints ascribe their source to Chinese crude oils. The overall levels of anthropogenic hydrocarbons are low compared to relevant areas worldwide and reveal a low/moderate level of hydrocarbon pollution.     

A precise monitoring of snow surface height in the region of Lambert Glacier basin-Amery Ice Shelf,East Antarctica

The net surface snow accumulation on the Antarctic ice sheet is determined by a combination of precipitation, sublimation and wind redistribution. We present a one-year record of hourly snow-height measurements at LGB69 (70°50'S, 77°04'E, 1850 m a.s.l.). east side of Lambert Glacier basin (LGB), and 4 year record at G3 (70°53'S, 69°52'E, 84 m a.s.l.), Amery Ice Shelf (AIS). The measurements were made with ultrasonic sensors mounted on automatic weather stations installed at two sites. The snow accumulation at LGB69 is approximately 70 cm. Throughout the winter, between April and September, there was little change in surface snow height (SSH) at the two sites. The negative SSH change is due to densification at LGB69, and is due to both ablation and densification at G3. The strongest accumulation at two sites occurred during the period between October and March (accounting for 101.6% at LGB69), with four episodic increasing events occurring during 2002 for LGB69, and eight events during 1999-2002 for G     

1995年1月17日兵库县南部地震的震源机制

兵库县南部地震于１９９５年１月１７日５时４６分（ＪＳＴ;ＪＳＴ＝ＧＭＴ＋９ｈ）发生在兵库县南部的活动断层上,对几个城市尤其是神户造成了严重的破坏。我们通过对宽频带及强地面运动地震图的分析确定了本次地震的震源机制及大小（地震矩和震级）。由长周期矩心矩和量反演的震源机制是,走向、倾角、滑动角分别为２３３°,８３°,１６９°,补偿线性偶极向量分量小（１．５％）,Ｍ０＝３．０×１０＾１９Ｎｍ,Ｍｗ＝６．９