Spatial rainfall estimation by linear and non-linear co-kriging of radar-rainfall and raingage data

The feasibility of linear and nonlinear geostatistical estimation techniques for optimal merging of rainfall data from raingage and radar observations is investigated in this study by use of controlled numerical experiments. Synthetic radar and raingage data are generated with their hypothetical error structures that explicitly account for sampling characteristics of the two sensors. Numerically simulated rainfall fields considered to be ground-truth fields on 4×4 km grids are used in the generation of radar and raingage observations. Ground-truth rainfall fields consist of generated rainfall fields with various climatic characteristics that preserve the space-time covariance function of rainfall events in extratropical cyclonic storms. Optimal mean areal precipitation estimates are obtained based on the minimum variance, unbiased property of kriging techniques under the second order homogeneity assumption of rainfall fields. The evaluation of estimated rainfall fields is done based on the refinement of spatial predictability over what would be provided from each sensor individually. Attention is mainly given to removal of measurement error and bias that are synthetically introduced to radar measurements. The influence of raingage network density on estimated rainfall fields is also examined.     

Microscopic observation and contact stress analysis of granite under compression

To study the damage process of microscale to macroscale in coarse-grained granite specimen under uniaxial compressive stress, we have observed micro-damage localization and propagation by using a newly developed experimental system that allows us to observe the damaging process continuously.

The results showed that pre-existing microcracks lead to macroscopic shear fracture through the damage development process. The mechanism of micro-damage initiation in a granite specimen under uniaxial compressive stress may be considered for two cases. One is that two grains such as quartz and feldspar contact each other in the same direction as the axial stress, and the other is that a biotite grain inclined to the axial stress direction is surrounded by feldspar grains. The homogenization theory was applied to verify numerically the micromechanics of stress-induced damage in the mineral contacts. Local stress distribution in the periodic-micro structure was also calculated by the homogenization theory. It is shown that this analysis, which takes into account the initial state of the specimen, is well adapted to the behavior of two grains for which microcracking is the fundamental mechanism of damage.     

Wave prediction in a port using a fully nonlinear Boussinesq wave model

A wave forecasting system using FUNWAVE-TVD which is based on the fully nonlinear Boussinesq equations by Chen(2006) was developed to provide an accurate wave prediction in the Port of Busan, South Korea. This system is linked to the Korea Operational Oceanographic System(KOOS) developed by Park et al.(2015). The computational domain covers a region of 9.6 km×7.0 km with a grid size of 2 m in both directions, which is sufficient to resolve short waves and dominant sea states. The total number of grid points exceeds 16 millions,making the model computational expensive. To provide real-time forecasting, an interpolation method, which is based on pre-calculated results of FUNWAVE-TVD and SWAN forecasting results at the FUNWAVE-TVD offshore boundary, was used. A total of 45 cases were pre-calculated, which took 71 days on 924 computational cores of a Linux cluster system. Wind wave generation and propagation from the deep water were computed using the SWAN in KOOS. SWAN results provided a boundary condition for the FUNWAVE-TVD forecasting system. To verify the model, wave observations were conducted at three locations inside the port in a time period of more than 7 months. A model/model comparison between FUNWAVE-TVD and SWAN was also carried out. It is found that, FUNWAVE-TVD improves the forecasting results significantly compared to SWAN which underestimates wave heights in sheltered areas due to incorrect physical mechanism of wave diffraction, as well as large wave heights caused by wave reflections inside the port.     

Hydrological modelling uncertainty analysis for different flow quantiles: a case study in two hydro-geographically different watersheds

This study focuses on analysis of hydrological model parameter uncertainty at varying sub-basin spatial scales. It was found that the variation in sub-basin spatial scale had little influence on the entire flow simulations. However, the different sub-basin spatial scales had a significant impact on the reproduction of the flow quantiles. The coarser sub-basin spatial scale provided a better coverage of most prediction uncertainty in observations. However, the finer sub-basin spatial scale produced the best single simulation output closer to the observations. In general, the optimal sub-basin spatial scales (ratio to the entire watershed size) in the two test watersheds were found to be in the ranges 14–19% and 2–4% for good simulation of high and low flows, respectively. It is therefore worthwhile to put more effort into reproducing different flow quantiles by investigating an appropriate sub-basin spatial scale.     

Methods for ultimate limit state assessment of ships and ship-shaped offshore structures: Part I—Unstiffened plates

The present paper is Part I of a series of three papers prepared by the authors on the methods useful for ultimate limit state assessment of marine structures, that have been developed in the literature during the last few decades. It is considered that such methods are now mature enough to enter day-by-day design and strength assessment practice. The aims of the three papers are to conduct some benchmark studies of such methods on ultimate limit state assessment of (unstiffened) plates, stiffened panels, and hull girders of ships and ship-shaped offshore structures, using some candidate methods such as ANSYS nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA), DNV PULS, ALPS/ULSAP, ALPS/HULL, and IACS common structural rules (CSR) methods. As an illustrative example, an AFRAMAX-class hypothetical double hull oil tanker structure designed by CSR method is studied. In the present paper (Part I), the ultimate limit state assessment of unstiffened plates under combined biaxial compression and lateral pressure loads is emphasized using ANSYS, DNV PULS, and ALPS/ULSAP methods, and their resulting computations are compared. Part II will deal with methods for the ultimate limit state assessment of stiffened panels under combined biaxial compression and lateral pressure using ANSYS, DNV PULS, and ALPS/ULSAP methods, and Part III will treat methods for the progressive collapse analysis of the hull structure using ANSYS, ALPS/HULL, and IACS CSR methods.     

The solubility of copper in high-temperature magmatic vapors: A quest for the significance of various chloride and sulfide complexes

We conducted experiments to determine the effect of various chemical components (NaCl, KCl, HCl, FeCl₂, H₂S, SO₂) on the solubility of Cu in single phase aqueous vapors at 1000 °C and 150 MPa. The experiments were conducted in Au₉₇Cu₃ alloy capsules buffering Cu activities at 0.01. The volatile phase was sampled at run conditions by the entrapment of synthetic fluid inclusions in quartz. To test if the volatile phase had reached equilibrium before the isolation of the inclusions by fracture healing, we trapped two inclusion generations, one in an initially prefractured chip and another in a quartz chip that was fractured in situ during the experiments. The synthetic fluid inclusions were subsequently analyzed by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. In pure water, the apparent solubility of Cu is below the limits of detection of 6 μg/g, showing the low stability of hydroxy Cu complexes at our experimental conditions. The presence of alkali chlorides supports modest Cu solubility likely in the form of NaCuCl₂ and KCuCl₂ complexes. In the H₂O-H₂S (+SiO₂ and Au₉₇Cu₃) system at an fH₂S of 10.4 MPa the apparent solubility of Cu is lower by a factor of ∼5 than that in a S-free 0.5 m NaCl solution, showing that copper hydrosulfide complexes are only moderately stable at these conditions. Addition of 4.7 mol% of sulfur to the H₂O-NaCl system at an fO₂ of 0.4 log units below the Ni-NiO buffer, yielding dominantly H₂S species, results in only a moderate increase in apparent Cu solubility, which diminishes in the presence of HCl. The addition of KCl results in a strong increase of apparent Cu solubility in the presence of H₂S. The solubility of Cu increases with the fugacity of oxygen in both the H₂O-NaCl and the H₂O-S-NaCl system following an approximately fourth root relationship as expected based on the stoichiometry of the involved redox reactions. Replacement of NaCl by FeCl₂ exerted only a minor effect on the Cu solubility.Results of our experiments, combined with thermochemical data obtained by ab initio quantum chemical calculations, suggest dissolution of Cu dominantly as Na(/K)CuCl₂, Na(/K)Cu(HS)_2, H₂SCuHS, and Na(/K)ClCuHS, the relative abundance of which are dictated by the H₂S/total chloride and HCl/alkali chloride ratios.     

Surface albedo from the geostationary Communication,Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS)/Meteorological Imager (MI) observation system

The surface albedo is an essential climate variable that is considered in many applications used for predicting climate and understanding the mechanisms of climate change. In this study, surface albedo was estimated using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function model based on Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite/Meteorological Imager data. Geostationary orbiting satellite data are suitable for a level 2 product like albedo, which requires a synthetic process to estimate. The authors modified established methods to consider the geometry of the solar-surface-sensor of COMS/MI. Of note, the viewing zenith angle term was removed from the kernel integration used for estimating spectral albedo. Finally, the spectral (narrow) albedo was converted into the broadband albedo with shortwave length (approximately 0.3–2.5 μm). This study determined conversion coefficients using only one spectral albedo of visible channel. The estimated albedo had a relatively high correlation with Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre/Vegetation and low unweighted error values specific for land types or times. The validation results show that estimated albedo has a root mean square error of 0.0134 at Jeju flux site that indicates accuracy similar to that of other satellite-based products.     

Flood risk assessment using regional regression analysis

This study aimed to create a flood risk map for ungauged regions, which have limited flood damage data and other relevant data. The fact that there is a shortage of data that are critical for the establishment of a flood assessment and mitigation plan is not surprising even in developed countries like South Korea. To address this problem, the regional regression concept in statistical hydrology was introduced to the flood risk assessment field in this study, and it was framed with a series of two regression functions: flood damage and regional coefficients. As the second regression function utilizes the local socioeconomic variables, the resulting flood risk map can reflect the spatial characteristics well. The proposed methodology was applied to create flood risk maps for the three metropolitan areas in South Korea. The comparison of the proposed methodology with the existing methods revealed that only the proposed methodology can produce a statistically meaningful flood risk map based on a recent major flood in 2001.     

U–Pb SHRIMP zircon geochronology,petrogenesis, and tectonic setting of the Neoproterozoic Baekdong ultramafic rocks in the Hongseong Collision Belt,South Korea

The Hongseong area, located in the western Gyeonggi Massif, South Korea, can be correlated with the northern margin of the South China block (Yangtze Craton). This area experienced Neoproterozoic igneous activity related to subduction before the amalgamation of Rodinia. Several isolated, lenticular, and serpentinized ultramafic–mafic bodies occur in the Hongseong area. The Baekdong body, one of the largest ultramafic bodies, has been highly deformed and metamorphosed to eclogite- and granulite-facies. The petrogenesis and tectonic environment of the Baekdong rocks are assessed using the composition of unaltered cores of spinel and olivine grains, and show that these rocks represent the mantle section of a suprasubduction ophiolite. The rocks originated from oceanic lithosphere that formed during the transition from nascent back-arc to mature island arc, related to subduction roll-back. During the back-arc stage, Al-rich spinel harzburgite formed through melt–rock interaction caused by the intrusion of magma. This magma was produced in small amounts, by less than 10% of partial melting of the wedge mantle. Subsequently, during the mature island arc stage, Cr-rich spinel dunite formed through melt–rock interaction caused by the intrusion of relatively evolved magma that formed by 30–35% partial melting due to a high input of volatiles from the subducted slab and sediments. The Baekdong ultramafic rocks, together with the Bibong ultramafic rocks, indicate that a suprasubduction tectonic setting prevailed before the amalgamation of Rodinia (at 860–890 Ma) in the Hongseong area, which may be an extension of the northern margin of the Yangtze Craton.