半干旱地区洪水模拟效果差异性分析及影响因子响应评估

中国北方半干旱地区的降水与下垫面条件具有明显的时空异质性,如何完整准确地描述该类区域的水文过程是当代水文学研究的难点之一.选择半干旱地区水文实验区域——绥德流域和曹坪流域,通过构建不同时空规律的降水场,并结合3种不同产流机制的水文模型,进行大型数值模拟实验,去探究时间、空间、产流机制等因素对半干旱地区洪水模拟的影响,为该类地区水文模型的研制工作提供借鉴.结果 表明:1)半干旱地区中小流域的产流对降雨强度较为敏感,因此降水输入的时间步长对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较大;相比之下,流域雨量站数量的增减,仅体现在降雨分布场的暴雨中心缺失以及面平均降雨量的微小差别,对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较小.2)水文模型能否准确描述主导水文过程是半干旱地区洪水模拟效果优良的关键,流域的尺度效应及其下垫面条件的空间异质性是半干旱地区不同水文模型研制和调整应当优先考虑的问题,无论时间步长、雨量站数量怎么组合,产流结构适宜的模型其模拟效果总是趋于较好的结果.     

基于Fisher判别的南方双季稻低温灾害等级预警

为了建立南方双季稻低温灾害综合预测预警技术体系, 基于南方双季稻种植区1961—2010年708个气象站的逐日气象资料、水稻生育期资料和低温灾害发生的气象行业标准,采用Fisher判别分析法、因子膨化法、相关性分析法,利用SPSS软件构建早稻春季低温灾害高风险区 (Ⅰ区) 未来10 d、晚稻寒露风高风险区 (Ⅰ区)、主灾区 (Ⅱ区) 未来5 d的低温灾害发生等级逐日滚动预警模型。其中,1961—2009年资料用于模型构建和回代检验,2010年资料用于模型的外延预测。结果表明:早稻、晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅰ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别达到90.5%,74.2%,80.3%,晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅱ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别为89.4%和80.3%。构建的南方双季稻低温灾害逐日滚动预警模型的外延预测基本一致准确率多超过80%,等级预测检验误差总体上在1个等级以内,模型评价效果较好。     

近场强震动记录基线校正方法的振动台实验研究

为了获取近场永久位移,通常采用基线校正方法,对近场加速度记录进行基线校正并积分得到永久位移值,但这一结果主观性较强,其可靠性也往往缺乏验证。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种能产生包含永久位移振动过程的振动台实验方案,采用振动台加滑动机构的方法,模拟记录到永久位移台站测点的真实振动情况;在实验中分别采用加速度计、摄影测量方法分别直接得到加速度和位移时程,对加速度时程进行基线校正并积分得到位移时程,将其与直接获得的位移时程进行对比,以验证采用基线校正方法的有效性。实验结果表明,在实验室条件下采用现有的基线校正方法校正后,通过积分能得到可以接受的位移时程。     

吉林延边小西南岔铜(金)矿床早白垩世中—酸性岩浆岩年代学、地球化学及其成因探讨

小西南岔铜(金)矿床位于吉林省延边地区东部,通过对小西南岔铜(金)矿床早白垩世中—酸性岩浆岩进行野外地质、岩相学、年代学和地球化学等方面的研究,进一步探讨延边乃至东北地区中生代大地构造演化。年代学研究结果表明：其同位素年龄分别为(101.69±0.61) Ma(石英闪长岩)、(101.14±0.58) Ma(英云闪长岩)、(100.82±0.62) Ma(花岗闪长岩)和(100.20±1.10) Ma(闪长玢岩),岩浆作用发生在早白垩世末期(102～100 Ma),是同一构造演化过程的产物。岩石地球化学研究表明,闪长玢岩具有典型埃达克质岩石的地球化学特征,其w(SiO₂)=61.419%～62.153%,w(Al₂O₃)=16.872%～17.329%,w(MgO)=2.339%～2.643%,w(Na₂O)=5.749%～6.623%,w(K₂O)=1.483%～1.786%,w(Sr)=(691～888)×10^-6,w(Yb)=(0.71～0.83)×...     

环渤海葡萄涝渍指标构建及风险评估

以中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区为研究对象, 利用1980—2019年研究区域内303个气象站逐日气象资料、葡萄发育期资料和葡萄涝渍灾情资料, 基于相对湿润度方法构建葡萄逐日涝渍指数M5i, 以历史灾情反演和灾变过程解析为主线, 采用正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t分布区间估计等方法, 构建适用于中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区的葡萄涝渍灾害等级指标体系, 利用信息扩散理论方法, 计算区域内各站点的葡萄涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明: 构建的葡萄涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况, 指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性; 葡萄同一发育阶段的涝渍灾害发生范围随灾害等级的加大而缩小, 不同发育阶段重度涝渍灾害发生范围随着发育进程的推进逐渐增大; 葡萄萌芽-新梢生长期和开花坐果期发生涝渍灾害的风险相对较低, 果实膨大期和着色成熟期为葡萄涝渍灾害发生的高风险时期; 葡萄涝渍灾害高风险区域主要位于山东东南部、辽宁东南部、河北东北部。     

工作状态下梁及桥梁模态与损伤识别的新方法

工作状态下桥梁结构的模态参数识别是桥梁损伤识别的重要环节,考虑桥梁检测的实用性,桥梁检测一般应建立在环境激励的基础上,已有的环境激励下模态参数识别的方法对模态频率的识别的精度较高,而对位移模态的识别则误差较大。提出了一种利用移动质量块在不同位置时对桥梁的模态频率进行多次测量,用各次测得的频率值确定位移模态的新方法,使得位移模态识别的精度接近频率识别的精度,建立了该方法的初步模型,推导了频率与位移模态关系的理论公式,并通过数值模拟对该方法的有效性进行了说明。     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indicator-based spatiotemporal characteristics of apple drought in North China

Natural Hazards - Frequent occurrences of drought stress caused by dry weather create severe destroy in apple yield and quality in North China. Although appropriate drought stress is beneficial to...     

Strength Analysis on Brace Structure for Semi-Submersible in Consideration of Wave Slamming

Slamming on bracings of column stabilized units shall be considered as a possible limiting criterion under transit condition based on the requirements in DNV-OS-C103. However, the wave slamming loads under survival condition were ignored for the strength analysis of the brace structures in many semi-submersible projects. In this paper, a method of strength analysis of brace structure is proposed based on the reconstruction and extrapolation of numerical model. The full-scale mooring system, the wind, wave and current loads can be considered simultaneously. Firstly, the model tests of the semi-submersible platform in wind tunnel and wave tanker have been carried out. Secondly, the numerical models of the platform are reconstructed and extrapolated based on the results of model tests. Then, a nonlinear numerical analysis has been conducted to study the wave slamming load on brace in semi-submersible platform through the reconstructed and extrapolated numerical model. For the randomness of wave load, ten subcases under each condition have been carried out. The value of the 90% Gumble distribution values of the ten subcases are used. Finally, the strength on brace structure has been analyzed considering the wave slamming. The wave slamming loads have been compared between the survival condition and transit condition with the method. The results indicate that wave slamming under survival condition is more critical than that under transit condition. Meanwhile, the wave slamming is significant to the structural strength of the brace. It should be overall considered in the strength analysis of the brace structure.