The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Landau level-superfluid modified factor and the overal soft X/<Emphasis Type="Italic">γ</Emphasis>-ray efficiency coefficient of a magnetar

As soon as the energies of electrons near the Fermi surface exceed Q, the threshold energy of inverse β-decay, electron capture (EC) dominates inside a neutron star. The high-energy neutrons released by EC will destroy anisotropic ³ P ₂ neutron Cooper pairs in the degenerate superfluid. By colliding with the neutrons produced in the process n+(n↑n↓)→n+n+n, the kinetic energies of the neutrons released by EC will be transformed into thermal energy. A portion of this thermal energy will be transported from the star interior to the star surface by conduction, then converted to a thermal spectrum of soft X-rays and γ-rays. By introducing two important parameters: the Landau level-superfluid modified factor and the overal soft X/γ-ray efficiency coefficient, we compute the theoretical luminosity L _X of a magnetar under our model and plot a diagram of L _X as a function of magnetic field strength B. Numerical calculations based on our model agree well with the observed properties of magnetar candidates.     

The atmospheric circulation patterns influencing the frequency of spring sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the sand-storm frequency data fi＇om 37 weather stations in the Tarim Basin for the period 1961-2009, the relationship between the frequency of spring sandstorms in the Tafim Basin and the associated atmospheric circu- lation pattems is analyzed in this study. We found significantly negative correlations between sandstorm frequency and the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Paris Basin and midwestem Mongolia, while there were positive correlations over the Ural River region. The rising of the 500-hPa geopotential height in midwestem Mongolia and its falling over the Ural region corre- spond to a weakening of the large-scale wave patterns in the Eurasian region, which directly causes the frequency of the sand-dust storms in the Tarim Basin to decline. Also, the abrupt decline in the spring sandstorm frequency in the Tarim Basin observed in the last half-century is associated with profound changes in the atmospheric circulation in these key regions. At the interannual scale, the strengthened cyclonic atmospheric circulation patterns in the western part of Mongolia and the anticyclonic patterns over the East European plains at 500-hPa geopotential height, are responsible for frequent sandstorm occurrences in the Tarim Basin.     

Effects of salinity on embryonic development,survival, and growth of Crassostrea hongkongensis

This study examined the effects of salinity on embryonic development, survival, and growth of the Hong Kong oyster Crassostrea hongkongensis. The embryos, larvae, and juveniles of C. hongkongensis were held in artificial seawater at three different salinities (low, 15; medium, 23; and high, 30) to determine the optimum hatchery and nursery conditions for mass production of the seeds. Results showed that the percentage production of straight-hinged larvae from fertilized eggs was significantly lower at the high salinity than at the low- and medium-salinities (P < 0.05). The survival rates of larvae and juveniles differed significantly among the three salinity trials, with the highest survival rate observed at the low salinity (P < 0.05). The shell height of larvae was significantly larger at the low salinity than at the high and medium salinities from days 9 to 15 (P < 0.05), whereas that of juveniles was significantly larger at the low salinity than at the high and medium salinities on day 70 (P < 0.05). These results indicate that the larvae and juveniles of C. hongkongensis are tolerant to a wide range of salinities (15 to 30), but show better growth and survival at relatively low salinities. Thus, it is recommended to use relatively low salinities in hatchery and nursery systems for improved yields of C. hongkongensis.     

Metallogenic and Metamorphic Age of the Hongtoushan Copper–Zinc Massive Sulfide Deposit,Liaoning Province,China

The Hongtoushan copper–zinc deposit is the only large Archean volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposit in China. This paper presents new information on the timing of metallogenesis and metamorphism of the deposit, including new cathodoluminescence (CL) images, and Th U^?1 and LA–ICP–MS U–Pb dating on zircons of the biotite–plagioclase gneiss and plagioclase–amphibole gneiss that host the deposit. The CL images and Th U^?1 ratios indicate that the zircons within the gneiss are of metamorphic origin. LA–ICP–MS dating of the plagioclase–amphibole gneiss yielded the upper intercept ages of 2549 Ma, and the biotite–plagioclase gneiss yielded the upper intercept ages of 2552 Ma and 2550 Ma correspondingly, indicating that the mineralization of the deposit occurred at around 2550 Ma. The rims of zircons within these host rocks yielded younger U–Pb ages at 2529, 2520 and 2515 Ma, identical to the age of felsic intrusive rocks in the study area. This suggests that the Hongtoushan VMS deposit underwent initial metamorphism and deformation at around 2520 Ma by the intrusion of granite magmas.     

Defining physico-chemical variables, chlorophyll-a and Secchi depth reference conditions in northeast eco-region lakes, China

Establishing reference conditions for regional lakes is necessary to assess human impact on aquatic ecosystems, protect water quality and biotic integrity. The northeast eco-region lakes often present a marked seasonal variability in hydrological, biological and geochemical processes, which could affect physico-chemical variables, chlorophyll-a and Secchi depth reference conditions. Reference conditions were calculated using two different methods: lake population distribution method and trisection method. General physico-chemical reference conditions (pH, conductivity, BOD and nutrients) and chlorophyll-a, and Secchi depth reference conditions were established using the two approaches combined with the analysis of seasonal variability for each parameter for shallow and deep lake types in the northeast eco-region lakes. The results indicated that depth was an important factor affecting physico-chemical variables, chlorophyll-a and Secchi depth reference values. Moreover, the seasonal differences in parameters were also assessed using a non-parametric repeated measure ANOVA (Friedman test) in the shallow and deep lakes. Some parameters showed a seasonal variability for shallow and deep lakes. The least restrictive reference values of the four seasons were proposed to simplify the water quality assessment for regional lake management goals. These results indicated that the 50th percentile (median) value from the best one-third of the nutrient-concentration data distributions is more appropriate for the northeast eco-region lakes.     

微波爆发中具有双峰结构的准周期振荡的初步分析

本文分析了1989年3月9日,11日,13日与AR5395产生的耀斑成协的,叠加在2cm微波爆发上的具有双峰结构的准周期振荡.利用磁流环结合的非线性不稳定性机制,对等离子体和磁场相互作用的过程进行了定性的分析,并计算了几个有关的参数.最后进行了简单的讨论.     

The July 14, 2003 Qianjiangping landslide,Three Gorges Reservoir,China

The Qianjiangping landslide occurred after the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in July 2003. Field investigation revealed that failure occurred when the reservoir reached 135 m, but the stability of the affected slope was already reduced by pre-existing bedding-plane shears, quarrying of mudstone from the landslide toe, and previous heavy rain. A possible explanation of the rapid and long runout mechanism of the landslide is that movement on a bedding-plane shear ruptured the calcite cement and rapidly reduced the sandstone strength to residual shear strength.     

Analysis of mass concentration of atmospheric particulate matter in a sandstorm course and its affecting factors in the Taklimakan Desert

During the course of a major sandstorm from April 17 to April 23, 2008 in the Taklimakan Desert, data pertaining to the mass concentrations of different-sized atmospheric particulate matter were observed continuously with Grimm 1.108, Thermo RP 1400a, TSP, and CAWS-600 instruments. The results showed that: (1) during the entire sandstorm process there were some differences between the daily mean particle concentration peaks and the hourly mean particle concentration peaks because the actual sandstorm lasted for only about 4 hr, whereas more particles were accumulated in the floating dust days before and after the actual sandstorm; (2) the intensity of the sandstorm was enhanced with the increase of wind speed, and this was related to the peak mass concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter; the wind speed directly affected the concentration of atmospheric particulate matter: the higher the wind speed, the higher the mass concentration (>0.23 μm was 39,496.5 μg/m³, and >20.0 μm was 5,390.7 μg/m³); (3) the concentration changes of PM₁₀ and TSP were also related to the course and intensity of the sandstorm; and (4) the mass concentration of atmospheric particulate matter had the following sequence during the dust weather: clear day < floating dust < floating and blowing dust < sandstorm. Temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure are important factors affecting the strength of storms, which could also indirectly affect the concentration change of atmospheric particulate matter.     

一次致雹强风暴的多普勒雷达特征分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和北京、天津的多普勒天气雷达产品对2007年7月9日华北中部地区一次伴有短时暴雨、局地冰雹和短时大风等强对流天气过程进行分析研究。分析表明,此次天气过程发生前高空转为前倾槽,并具有较强的不稳定层结;近地层的风切变线是雷暴生成的条件。物理量诊断分析表明：降水前水汽辐合区已从近地层扩展到850 hPa,但比较浅薄;低层辐合、高层辐散的配置加强了垂直上升运动;强对流天气发生区域处于垂直上升运动最强的区域内。多普勒天气雷达产品分析表明：致雹风暴具有中气旋特征和类似强降水超级单体的性质;路径预报的准确率与雷暴的总数目和移动异向性有关,雷暴的实际移向角度与雷达的路径预报相比存在明显偏差,总体偏差在29～67°之间,但路径预报产品仍对天气预报具有一定指示性;风廓线产品中3-7 km高度内垂直风切变矢量随高度呈顺时针旋转,在这种有利的条件下风暴有可能发展成强降水超级单体。