长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估

基于长江流域142个气象站1986—2005年月降水和气温数据,评估由MPI-ESM-LR模式驱动的CCLM区域气候模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟能力,并采用EDCDF法对气温和降水预估数据进行偏差校正。结果表明：该区域气候模式能较好地模拟出长江流域平均气温的季节变化和空间分布特征,但模拟值无论在季节还是年际尺度上均高于观测值。对降水而言,该模式不能较好地模拟出降水的季节分布特征,导致春季、冬季及年模拟值高于观测值,而夏季和秋季模拟值低于观测值。总体而言,该模式对气温的模拟效果相对较好。偏差校正后的预估结果表明：在RCP4.5情景下,长江流域未来（2016—2035年）平均气温相对于基准期（1986—2005年）将升高0.66℃,年降水量将减少2.2%。     

辽北－吉南地区太古宙花岗岩－绿岩带地质地球化学

辽北－吉南地区是我国典型太古宙花岗岩－绿岩带出露区之一。根据其地质地球化学特征，本区绿岩带可划分为清原型和夹皮沟型，其形成的古构造环境分别为与现代岛弧的大陆边缘活动带和弧后盆地或大陆边缘裂谷相类似的裂谷型构造环境。与绿岩带有关的花岗质岩石可划分为三类：即片麻状花岗质杂岩体、花岗闪长岩和英云闪长岩底辟岩基以及钾质花岗岩。花岗岩－绿岩带的形成时代为２．５－２．９Ｇａ。     

藏北羌塘中部日湾茶卡组物源——LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及稀土元素特征

在龙木错—双湖—澜沧江板块缝合带中段的冈玛错—日湾茶卡地区,近东西向展布着一条富含暖水型生物化石的早石炭世地层日湾茶卡组（C1r）。对日湾茶卡组砂岩中的碎屑锆石进行LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年,分析结果显示存在325~400Ma、400~500Ma、500~600Ma、950~1100Ma、1400~1800Ma和大于1800Ma六个年龄区间;最年轻的碎屑锆石年龄为325 Ma,时代为早石炭世维宪期;碎屑锆石中362 Ma和454Ma的年龄峰值最明显,为龙木错—双湖—澜沧江洋岛弧消减事件和加里东运动的年龄记录,表明碎屑岩的物源区主要来自于扬子大陆周缘。结合古生物化石资料可知,日湾茶卡组属于欧亚大陆扬子型石炭纪沉积地层,为岛弧环境下的一套浅水台型沉积。     

省级气象预报业务系统软件工程开发原则与技术

针对新时期技术装备不断更新、探测手段日益丰富、信息量急剧增长的技术形势,根据气象预报业务对软件系统工程的具体需求,及目前省级气象预报业务软件系统开发人员的具体状况,从可靠性、开放性、可移植性及工作效率等多方面入手,讨论了气象预报业务软件系统工程开发的原则,并对具体技术措施进行了分析。     

Factors driving riverbed scouring and sedimentation in the Bayangaole to Toudaoguai reaches of the Upper Yellow River

The Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River face problems of severe sedimentation caused by a variety of complex factors. The sedimentation process in those reaches has been characterized using the sediment balance method, and the key factors affecting the process have been analyzed using the correlation analysis method. The results show that during the period 1952–2012 the Bayangaole (Bayan Gol) to Toudaoguai reaches in Inner Mongolia have undergone successive processes of accumulative sedimentation, then relative balance, and then accumulative sedimentation once again. The total annual sedimentation is 12.0341×10⁸ m³, of which accumulations from July to October account for 95.1% and the reaches from Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai account for 98.5%. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Bayangaole to Sanhuhekou reaches is the combined water and sediment condition. The critical conditions for equilibrium are an incoming sediment coefficient < 0.007 kg·s·m^–6 and a flow discharge > 700 m³·s^–1. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai reaches is the incoming sediment from the tributaries on the south bank and the combined water and sediment condition of the main stream. The critical conditions of the main stream for maintaining equilibrium status are a flow discharge of the main stream exceeding 800 m³·s^–1 and a comprehensive incoming sediment coefficient < 0.005 kg·s·m^–6. The incoming sediment from the tributaries has little impact on the main stream when the annual sediment load is less than 0.1×10⁸ t. The incoming sediment coefficient of the main stream and the incoming sediment from the tributaries both play vital roles in the riverbed evolution of the Inner Mongolia reaches, but the latter contributes the most.     

高应力区砂岩加卸载条件下能量变化规律及损伤分析

根据高应力区砂岩三轴压缩试验和峰前卸围压试验的结果,分析了砂岩在不同应力路径下的能量变化规律。试验结果表明,相同围压下,峰前卸围压试验的各能量指标(总吸收能、弹性应变能、耗散能)均小于三轴压缩试验,能量变化特征与其初始应力路径密切相关,且随围压的增大而增大。峰前储存的弹性应变能比耗散能多,耗散能只在临近峰值点处才迅速增加。能量的耗散会导致岩石产生损伤,并且使岩性劣化、丧失强度,从能量角度定义的损伤变量,可以得出结论:开始卸荷低围压下的损伤变量大于高围压下,临近破坏时高围压下的损伤变量大于低围压下;卸围压使岩样束缚减小,加速了损伤的发展,岩样所受的应力状态愈趋不平衡。因此,基于能量的角度来表征岩石的损伤演化更符合实际。     

New biostratigraphic data from the Cretaceous Bolinxiala Formation in Zanda, southwestern Tibet of China, and their paleogeographic and paleoceanographic implications

Planktonic foraminiferal fossil assemblages identified from the Bolinxiala Formation in Bolin, Zanda, southwestern Tibet of China, determine its age from latest Albian to Maastrichtian. The fossil contents of the Bolinxiala Formation allow its correlation with successions across a platform-to-basin transect of the Late Cretaceous Tethyan Himalaya passive margin. The ocean anoxic event at the Cenomanian–Turonian transition (OAE2) is located at the Whiteinella archaeocretacaea biozone in Zanda, but lithologically it is characterized by grey and bioturbated limestone, implying that during the OAE2 the shallow-water environments of the Tethyan Himalayan carbonate platform remained oxic. Paleogeographic reconstruction indicates that the Upper Cretaceous Oceanic Red Beds (CORBs) in southern Tibet are restricted to the slope and basinal environments but they are entirely missing in the shelf environments. This phenomenon suggests the formation of CORBs by oxidation of Fe(II)-enriched anoxic deep ocean seawater at the chemocline that separated the oxic surface ocean from anoxic deep ocean. For depositional environments above the chemocline, no CORBs would be expected. Because of the chemocline instability across different sedimentary basins, CORBs may be significantly diachronous, consistent with the occurrence of CORBs documented from global sedimentary basins.     

Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.     

江苏省四季变化的分析

在全球气候变暖的背景下,近些年江苏省气温明显升高,使得江苏省四季的起止时间和长度发生了明显的改变.本文通过分析多种季节划分方法,根据江苏省的气温分布特点,定义了适用于江苏省的四季划分方法.通过分析四季的变化,结果显示:(1)江苏省四季分明,且南北有明显的差别,就全省常年平均而言,冬季最长,其次是夏季,秋季和春季长度很相近,秋季略短.(2)过去几十年里,江苏省各地区各季节的长度和起止时间都发生了明显的变化,特别是自21世纪以来,这种变化速度明显加快,最主要的变化特点为:春季发生的时段向前移了近10d;夏季明显变长,开始时间提前,结束时间推后;秋季的发生时段整体向后移;冬季明显缩短,特别是结束时间提前.     

陕北地区生态环境质量评价

使用卫星遥感解译结果和气象、水资源、污染资料,依据中国环境监测总站《生态环境质量评价方法及分级标准》,从生物丰度指数、植被覆盖指数、水网密度指数、土地退化指数和污染负荷指数五个方面,对1997年和2004年陕北地区28个县(区)生态环境质量进行了综合评价和对比分析。结果表明,该地区的生物丰度指数和植被覆盖指数有较大幅度提高,土地退化指数有所降低,近40%的地区生态环境质量指数Ieq(简称EQ I)增长率超过40%,年均增长率达到9%,表明陕北地区生态环境质量得到明显改善,退耕还林还草工程取得了明显成效。