Shift-share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness - A Case of Jiangsu Province

Shift-share analysis has been confirmed a useful approach in the study of regional economics and many kinds of extended shift-share models have been advanced and put into practice in economic studies, but few have hitherto been introduced and applied to the tourism research in China. Moreover understanding the spatially competitive relationship is of paramount importance for marketers, developers, and planners involved in tourism strategy development. Based on international tourism receipts from 1995 to 2004, this study aims at probing into the spatial competitiveness of interna- tional tourism in Jiangsu Province in comparison with its neighbors by applying a spatially extended shift-share model and a modified dynamic shift-share model. The empirical results illustrate that exceptional years may exist in the ap- plication of dynamic shift-share models. To solve this issue, modifications to dynamic shift-share model are put forward. The analytical results are not only presented but also explained by the comparison of background conditions of tourism development between Jiangsu and its key competitors. The conclusions can be drawn that the growth of international tourism receipts in Jiangsu mainly attributes to the national component and the competitive component and Zhejiang is the most important rival to Jiangsu during the period of 1995-2004. In order to upgrade the tourism competitiveness, it is indispensable for Jiangsu to take proper positioning, promoting and marketing strategies and to cooperate and integrate with its main rivals.     

Artificial Maturation of Organic Matter from Recent Venezuelan Sediments

Laboratory simulation of the catagenesis of organic matter in sedimentary rocks has been used to provide an understanding of the processes involved in petroleum generation. Several of these studies have focused on the thermal evolution of organic matter (OM) present in Recent sediments. This study examines the geochemical characteristics and experimental thermal evolution of primary organic matter from two organic facies that are thought to be major contributors to Venezuelan hydrocarbon source rocks. A third facies, generally considered unimportant for petroleum formation, is used to contrast the experimental results. Hydrous pyrolysis maturation experiments were performed for three intermediate temperatures. The products of the final 330°C stage are shown in this paper because they best illustrate the changes in the OM during catagenesis. Results from the hydrous pyrolysis experiments show that at 280°C and higher all three samples yield liquid hydrocarbons similar in composition to natural crudes and the transformed organic matter is similar to kerogen that occurs in natural source rocks. Chromatograms from the saturated fraction of extracts at 330°C are similar to natural crudes with respect to n-alkane distribution and abundance of beta; and beta;alpha; hopanes. The only difference seems to be the relative abundance of 22R over 22S isomers, which indicates immature oil. This is in contrast to indications from the R _o and T _max parameters measured on the accompanying kerogen.     

The Natural Hazards Theme of the International Year of Planet Earth

The United Nations has declared 2008 to be the International Year of Planet Earth. It is being organised under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences and UNESCO. Planning for the International Year of Planet Earth has consisted of establishing 10 major science themes including Hazards. The Hazards Theme is centred around the following key questions: (1) How have humans altered the geosphere, the biosphere and the landscape, thereby creating long-term changes detrimental to life and the environment and triggering certain hazards, while increasing societal vulnerability to geophysical (geological and hydrometeorological) hazards? (2) What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards and how might these be used at a variety of spatial scales? (3) How do geophysical hazards compare relative to each other regarding current capabilities for monitoring, prediction and mitigation and what can be done in the short-term to improve these capabilities (4) What barriers exist to the utilisation of risk and vulnerability information by governments (and other entities) for risk and vulnerability reduction policies and planning (including mitigation) from each of the geophysical hazards? Following the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe, Japan in January 2005, the International Council for Science (ICSU) decided to establish a major research programme and initiative on Natural and Human Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters that will co-operate with the Hazards theme of the International Year and continue through to 2011.     

First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa

A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake foci and large neotectonic and structural domains, seismotectonic structures, systems and domains were created. Relatively larger controls of seismicity exist between the Great Escarpment and the coast. In the south, this region is characterised by large aeromagnetic anomalies and large EW trending faults. In the west, it is characterised by the NW–SE trending Wegener stress anomaly, radial-trending dykes and earthquake clusters. In the east, it is characterised by a large neotectonic domain where several large historical earthquakes occurred. In the centre of South Africa, several clusters of earthquake activity are found, often related to mining activity. Further north, seismicity is related to both mining activity and neotectonic deformation. This work contributes to the development of a seismotectonic model for South Africa by (1) bringing together, digitally, several data sets in a common GIS platform (geology, geophysics, stress, seismicity, neotectonics, topography, crustal and mantle structure and anisotropy), (2) understanding the significance of data sets for seismotectonic zonation and limitations thereof and (3) obtaining a reasonable regional model for use in seismic hazard assessments.     

PULSE: a finite element code for solving adiabatic nonradial pulsation equations

We briefly present the nonradial adiabatic pulsation code PULSE first developped for white dwarf asteroseismology and now used to compute adiabatic oscillation properties for various types of stellar objects. Numerical tests show that the code is able to provide the accuracy (for a given stellar model) required to deal with the precision in frequency expected from the COROT long runs. While the ultimate objective is to compare the output of various pulsation codes (see these proceedings), we already emphasize problems that need to be addressed concerning, in particular, the mesh resolution of the input stellar models and its impact on the accuracy at which frequencies can be computed.     

Optimal seismic retrofit model for steel moment resisting frames with brittle connections

Based on performance-based seismic engineering, this paper proposes an optimal seismic retrofit model for steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs) to generate a retrofit scheme at minimal cost. To satisfy the acceptance criteria for the Basic Safety Objective (BSO) specified in FEMA 356, the minimum number of upgraded connections and their locations in an SMRF with brittle connections are determined by evolutionary computation. The performance of the proposed optimal retrofitting model is evaluated on the basis of the energy dissipation capacities, peak roof drift ratios, and maximum interstory drift ratios of structures before and after retrofitting. In addition, a retrofit efficiency index, which is defined as the ratio of the increment in seismic performance to the required retrofitting cost, is proposed to examine the efficiencies of the retrofit schemes derived from the model. The optimal seismic retrofit model is applied to the SAC benchmark examples for threestory and nine-story SMRFs with brittle connections. Using the retrofit efficiency index proposed in this study, the optimal retrofit schemes obtained from the model are found to be efficient for both examples in terms of energy dissipation capacity, roof drift ratio, and maximum inter-story drift ratio.     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.     

The first field-based descriptions of pumping-induced saltwater intrusion and upconing

Development of the ideas about the equilibrium between freshwater and saline water has received considerable attention in the literature, but little has been written so far about the earliest scientific works about well salinization. Based on a review of the literature from the second half of the 19th century and the early 20th century, this historical note explores how insights into groundwater abstraction and saltwater intrusion developed, and examples of the earliest field studies are provided. Fundamental research was driven by the need for increasing water supply, but the progress of science did not lead to sustainable management practices everywhere. Research outcomes were shared between scientists of different countries, marking the beginning of coastal hydrogeology as a scientific specialization in the first decade of the 20th century.     

Hydraulic and flood-loss modeling of levee,floodplain, and river management strategies,Middle Mississippi River,USA

In this investigation, four scenarios were used to quantify the balance between the benefits of levees for flood protection and their potential to increase flood risk using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard flood-loss software and hydraulic modeling of the Middle Mississippi River (MMR). The goals of this study were (1) to quantify the flood exposure under different flood-control configurations and (2) to assess the relative contributions of various engineered structures and flood-loss strategies to potential flood losses. Removing all the flood-control structures along the MMR, without buyouts or other mitigation, reduced the average flood stages between 2.3 m (100-year flood) and 2.5 m (500-year), but increased the potential flood losses by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by 155 million for the 100-year flood, but were decreased by $109 million for the 500-year flood. Thus, agricultural levees along the MMR protect against small- to medium-size floods (up to the ~100-year flood level) but cause more damage than they prevent during large floods such as the 500-year flood. Buyout costs for the all the buildings within the 500-year floodplain downstream of urban flood-control structures near St. Louis are ~40% less than the cost of repairing the buildings damaged by the 500-year flood. This suggests large-scale buyouts could be the most cost-effective option for flood loss mitigation for properties currently protected by agricultural levees.