四川盆地干旱动态评估指标的研究

在仔细分析干旱灾害物理成因基础上,围绕定量化和实时化这一核心,根据土壤水分盈亏原理,建立了具有清晰的物理意义的干旱动态评估指标。经检验,该方法符合实际,简便可行。     

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence of the Link between Broad Emission Line Regions and Accretion Disks in Active Galactic Nuclei

1 INTRODUCTION Most bright active galactic nuclei (AGNs) exhibit broad emission lines, with full width at half maximum (FWHM ≥ 103 km s?1) (Peterson et al. 1999). Some type 1 AGNs could have very broad emission lines (FWHM≥ 20 000 km s?1). Type 2 AGNs s…     

Tests and applications of an approach to absorbing reflected waves towards incident boundary

If the upstream boundary conditions are prescribed based on the incident wave only, the time-dependent numerical models cannot effectively simulate the wave field when the physical or spurious reflected waves become significant. This paper describes carefully an approach to specifying the incident wave boundary conditions combined with a set sponge layer to absorb the reflected waves towards the incident boundary. Incorporated into a time-dependent numerical model, whose governing equations are the Boussinesq-type ones, the effectiveness of the approach is studied in detail. The general boundary conditions, describing the down-wave boundary conditions are also generalized to the case of random waves. The numerical model is in detail examined. The test cases include both the normal one-dimensional incident regular or random waves and the two-dimensional oblique incident regular waves. The calculated results show that the present approach is effective on damping the reflected waves towards the incident wave boundary.     

CHINA’S FOUR MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTS

China lies in East-Asian monsoon region,which is one of the well-known active monsoon zones around the world.Monsoon anomaly results in frequent natural disasters,such as drought,torrential rain and flood.In 1998,joint intensified observations for 4 major meteorological scientific experiments have been carried out over Chinese major monsoon affected areas.A number of valuable data have been obtained and some observational facts have come out after initial analysis.The present paper is to give an introduction to the 4 major meteorological scientific experiments conducted in 1998 in China.including its origin and scientific goals,implementation and planning,equipment and progress,and initial findings from the important observational facts.It aims to provide a comprehensive report on the progress of the above experiments for those who are interested in.     

Shapes and Pole Orientations of Asteroids (360) Carlova and (209) Dido

Several light-curves of asteroid (360) Carlova and (209) Dido in different epochs were analyzed to determine shapes and pole orientations by means of AM-method and least squares method. New values of a/b, b/c, λ _p and β _p for asteroid (360) Carlova were obtained, which are 1.52°, 1.5°, 120 ± 6° and 66 ± 7°, respectively. We report a first determination of the parameters of (209) Dido which are 1.3°, 1.1°, 221 ± 6° and 37 ± 3°, respectively.     

New Damage-locating Method for Bridges Subjected to a Moving Load

A new damage-locating method for bridges subjected to a moving load is presented, and a new ‘moving load damage-locating indicator＇ （MLDI） is introduced. A vehicle is modeled as a moving load, the bridge is simplified as an Euler-Bernoulli beam, and the damage is simulated by a reduction of stiffness properties of the elements. The curvature and MLDI values at each node of the baseline model （undamaged） and the damage model are computed respectively. Then the damage or damages can be located from a sudden change of the MLDI value. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated by numerical simulation. The results indicate that the method is effective, being able to not only locate a single damage accurately, but also locate multiple damages in simply-supported bridges, including multiple damages in continuous bridges. The results also indicate that the MLDI can accurately locate damages under 5% measurement noise.     

Positively Drifting Structures During the 18 March 2003 Solar Flare

We analyze the high-frequency drift radio structures observed by the spectrometer at Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO) over the frequency range of 4.5 – 7.5 GHz during the 18 March 2003 solar flare. The drifting structures take place before the soft X-ray maximum, almost at the maximum of hard X-ray flux at 25 – 50 keV. For the first time, the positive drift in this kind of radio structures is detected in such a high frequency range. Their global drifting rate is roughly estimated as 3.6 GHz s⁻¹. They appear in four groups, lasting in total for less than 6 s, and have a broad bandwidth of more than 2 GHz but a smaller ratio of the bandwidth of the drifting structures to mean frequency than that of the lower frequency range. The lifetime of each individual burst in this event can be derived by using the high temporal resolution of the spectrometer at PMO and has an average value of 36.3 ms. Since the negative drifting structures observed in the 0.6 – 4.5 GHz frequency range were interpreted to be a radio signature of a plasmoid ejected upward (moving out of the Sun), the present observation may imply that it is possible for a plasmoid to move downward during a solar flare. However, for a confirmation of this suggestion direct radio imaging observation would be needed.     

A New Feature Vector Using Selected Line Spectra for Pulsar Signal Bispectrum Characteristic Analysis and Recognition

Average pulse profiles of pulsar signals are analyzed using the bispectrum tech-nique. The result shows that there are nonlinear phase couplings between the two frequency axes of the bispectrum charts, which indicate nonlinear factors in the generation and prop-agation of pulsar signals. Bispectra can be used as feature vectors of pulsar signals because of their being translation invariant. A one-dimension selected line spectrum algorithm for ex-tracting pulsar signal characteristic is proposed. Compared with selected bispectra, the pro-posed selected line spectra have the maximum interclass separability measurements from the point of view of the whole one-dimension feature vector. Recognition experiments on several pulsar signals received at several frequency bands are carried out. The result shows that the selected line spectrum algorithm is suitable for extracting pulsar signal characteristics and has a good classification performance.